u/CallMe_root

Supporting Fundamentals:

Gold remains supported by ongoing safe-haven demand as traders continue monitoring geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainty.

Markets are cautious ahead of key U.S. economic data and any Federal Reserve commentary, limiting aggressive buying above resistance.

A stronger U.S. dollar and elevated Treasury yields are capping upside momentum, encouraging profit-taking near intraday highs.

The current pullback appears corrective rather than a trend reversal, with buyers still defending key support zones below 4135.

As long as risk sentiment remains fragile, dips in gold are likely to attract demand, supporting the broader bullish structure despite short-term consolidation.

Spotted a Bullish Engulfing candle in 4h time frame.

I can sense the volume now in London session is responding to fomc news! Let's see how this setup rewards...

Before the news and few setups after....was in support of short from Monday!!

Fundamental Factors Supporting BUY XAUUSD 🟢

Safe-Haven Demand Remains Strong, Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty continues to support demand for gold as a defensive asset.

Expectations of Easier Monetary Policy, Markets remain sensitive to any signs of future rate cuts, which generally weakens the USD and supports gold prices.

US Dollar Showing Limited Strength, Gold is holding firm despite minor USD fluctuations, indicating underlying bullish demand.

Central Bank Gold Accumulation, Continued central bank purchases globally provide a supportive long-term backdrop for gold.

Dip Buying Activity Visible, Recent pullbacks have attracted buyers rather than aggressive selling, suggesting market participants still favor upside continuation.

Technical Confluence:

Strong bullish rejection from the 4329–4332 support zone.

Higher lows forming on the 15M timeframe, signaling growing buying pressure.

Risk-to-reward profile is favorable with price recovering above short-term structure support.

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TECHNICAL CASE

• Price rejected the 4400 support zone with a strong bearish candle failing to break lower, indicating buyers are defending the area.

• The recent pullback appears to be a liquidity grab below short-term support, followed by an immediate recovery, suggesting bullish continuation potential.

• As long as XAUUSD holds above the 4397–4400 invalidation area, the higher-low structure remains intact, favoring a move toward the 4426 resistance and potentially higher targets.

📈 Technicals Supporting This BUY Setup

• Bullish Pullback Retest: Price has completed a healthy retracement and is now reacting strongly from support, suggesting buyers are defending the zone. The recent bounce confirms demand remains active.

• Higher-Low Structure: The market is maintaining a sequence of higher lows, which is a classic bullish continuation signal and indicates that buying momentum is still intact.

• Risk-to-Reward Favorable: The stop loss is placed below the recent swing low while targets align with the next resistance zones, providing a strong risk-to-reward profile if bullish momentum continues.

15m chart

Short opportunity at the resistance

I think healthy pullback is done.

Now let's take over...

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🔥 What I would watch at NFP

🟢 Scenario 1 — WEAK NFP → GOLD BUY

NFP < 40K

• unemployment 4.2% or higher

• wages ≤0.2–0.3%

This is the best bullish combination.

I would expect:

4460/4455 sweep → reclaim 4470 → 4485 → 4495 → 4510

If 4510 breaks and holds, then:

4525–4535 becomes realistic.

⸻

🟢 Scenario 2 — Moderate/soft NFP

40K–55K

If unemployment rises or wages are soft, this can still be bullish.

The key confirmation for me would be:

30m candle reclaiming 4480–4485.

Then I’d look toward:

4495 → 4510

⸻

🔴 Scenario 3 — HOT NFP → GOLD SELL

If we get something like:

NFP >90K

• unemployment 4.1% or lower

• wages 0.4%+

That’s the combination I’d consider strongly bearish for gold.

Then watch:

4460 → 4450 → 4430

And if 4430 breaks, the downside can accelerate toward the 4410 area.

Apparently having fundamentals on your side isn't enough you need volume too!

Instincts never lie, so does fundamentals...this setup is pure.

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My POV?

Fundamental:

📈 Growing expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts are weakening the U.S. Dollar and reducing Treasury yields, which typically supports gold prices and strengthens the bullish case for XAUUSD.

Technical:

📊 Price has formed a higher low and is rebounding from a key support zone on the 30-minute timeframe, while targeting the next resistance area around 4502–4513, giving the setup a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for a buy position.

Gold is showing a strong bullish recovery after rejecting the 4410–4420 demand zone, with buyers stepping back into the market and forming higher lows. A sustained hold above 4433 support keeps the upside bias intact, opening the path toward 4488 and potentially the 4502–4513 resistance zone.

Second Setup XAUUSD for today...new york session

Long on XAUUSD!

Different Day! Same Direction...my instincts are telling me XAUUSD is bullish till 4730+

Yesterday my second entry went perfectly as per my analysis! And today I am confident about this bullish setup.