IsItBullshit: bullshit is not always bullshit
i've noticed a recurring ritual on this sub. someone posts a claim that is obviously exaggerated.
then somebody finds one study, statistic, technicality, definition, or missing decimal point that makes the claim about 23% less dramatic.
and everyone immediately gathers around the corpse yelling bullshit. Case closed. science has spoken.
Except half the time the original claim wasn't completely bullshit. it was just badly phrased, oversimplified, missing context, or inflated for attention. and the debunk isn't completely right either. it's usually another simplification pointing in the opposite direction. And nuance is terrible content.
this appears partly true under these conditions, although the evidence is mixed and depends heavily on what exactly you mean.... gets 12 upvotes and dies alone.
NO. BULLSHIT. HERE'S A LINK. gets 3,000 upvotes because somebody has successfully converted uncertainty into a small dopamine pellet ffs
this is where this sub gets interesting.
Anything that reaches the front page here has already survived several filters designed to make it less accurate. so the original claim usually had to be dramatic enough for somebody to wonder if it was bullshit. the title had to compress the claim into something even more dramatic. the replies then compete to give the cleanest yes/no verdict and the most confident answer rises because nobody enjoys scrolling through six paragraphs of well, technically bla bla bla and bla bla this that..
Soooooo you end up with a subreddit dedicated to critical thinking that structurally rewards one of the oldest failures of critical thinking: premature certainty !!!!!!
the funniest version is when someone posts a complicated scientific or economic claim and within eleven minutes a guy called thebongwizard has read the abstract of one paper and declared the matter closed. then someone replies: this.
thank god. peer review is complete. you know what the weird part is that this isn't even mainly about stupidity. plenty of people here are intelligent , imo it's about incentives because being uncertain feels weak while being nuanced feels boring. finding evidence that agrees with what you already suspected feels fantastic. so debunking gives you an especially nice psychological bonus because now u're the person who wasn't fooled lol.. it's the attitude u see lowkey in people saying woo woo about things they don't understand or use reductionism only to feel better than the plebs. everyone else is a gullible peasant wandering around the internet believing headlines while you, the last functioning prefrontal cortex on earth found the Snopes article lolol
And of course the opposite tribe does exactly the same thing. go to the subs of conspiracy communities they collect evidence that everything is secretly true. debunking communities collect evidence that everything suspicious is secretly stupid. both sides can become extremely sophisticated methods of never having to update your worldview.
Actual skepticism is annoying as it means sometimes discovering that the stupid viral claim contains a real signal and sometimes discovering that the elegant debunk is misleading or noticing that a study technically supports someone's argument while also being far too weak to justify their confidence. which is psychologically disgusting as there's no victory music with no idiot to point at.
How much bullshit is in it, in which direction, produced by whom, and what would i have to learn for me to change my mind? unfortunately that subreddit would probably have 147 members and one moderator who hasn't logged in since 2019.