u/CannabisCoureur

Friday's July jobs report was genuinely weak, and the market rallied to record highs on it. This is one of the more interesting macro setups in a while because the usual bad news is good news reflex is running straight into an inflation backdrop that could break it.

Nonfarm payrolls fell 23,000 in July against expectations of roughly +80,000 which is the first outright decline since February. May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000. The unemployment rate ticked down to 4.1%, but that was driven by people leaving the workforce. Participation fell to 61.4% from 62.1% at the start of the year, and the employed count is down over 800,000 this year. Wage growth cooled to 3.2% yoy, the slowest since 2021. So underneath the headline, nearly every measure points to a softening labour market.

The Fed held at 3.50–3.75% last week but has been openly worried about hiking because inflation re accelerated on the 2026 oil shock and three members dissented in favour of a hike. A soft jobs print takes pressure off that hawkish bias with September hike odds falling from 55% to 40% right after the report. Lower odds of tighter policy raise the present value of future earnings, which is why rate sensitive growth names led the rally. If the labour market cools gently while inflation behaves, you get the goldilocks path with no hike, eventual cuts and a soft landing.

Two problems still remain, firstly, a labour market where the jobless rate only falls because people stop looking isn't strength, it's late cycle cooling, and earnings estimates haven't caught down to it. Citi is out of consensus calling for three cuts by January 2027 precisely because they see unemployment pushing above 4.5% soon. Second, and more immediate is inflation that hasen't actually gone anywhere. If it's still hot, the Fed could be forced to hike into a weakening labour market and would be the worst of both worlds for equities.

July CPI drops on 12 August, any hotter then expected inflation data will revive the hike narrative, lift the 2 year and pressure a market sitting at record highs. A softer print keeps the benign path alive, it's rare to get a single data point that so cleanly arbitrates between two opposite regimes, and the positioning into it looks one sided.

Does anyone have the Macro backdrop as a part of their overall philosphy or is it all noise for you guys?

Chipotle used to be my go-to for a fast meal that actually hit my macros. Then the portions shrank, the prices climbed, and I stopped feeling like I was getting anything for my money.

So about a year ago I built my own version with AI help. I’ve been eating it ever since and haven’t set foot in a Chipotle since. I call it the Chipotle Killer.

Read this first: you want a Blackstone griddle or a stovetop alternative. I have the 22 inch camping version, works perfect! I cook all 8 lb in one pass on mine and it’s easy. If you’re working with a cast iron skillet, you’re looking at cooking in batches for a long time, and it’s miserable. Either scale the recipe down or borrow a griddle.

The chicken (makes ~16 servings)
8 lb boneless skinless chicken thighs

1 can (7 oz) chipotle peppers in adobo — the whole can, peppers and sauce, don’t measure anything out. If you like spice, add more but 1 can is convenient.

12 tbsp lime juice — I use Pompeii 100% lime juice from the bottle, not fresh squeezed. Works fine and it’s a lot less work at this volume

4 tbsp white wine vinegar

8 tbsp avocado oil (not olive — you need the higher smoke point for the char)

10 garlic cloves, minced — the original called for 16 and that was too much for me. Go up if you love garlic

6 tsp dried oregano (Mexican if you can find it)

6 tsp ground cumin

4 tsp smoked paprika

6 tsp kosher salt (I go heavier — season to taste)

2 tsp black pepper

Blend everything except the chicken into a smooth marinade. It should taste smoky, spicy, and tangy.

Coat the thighs thoroughly. Refrigerate overnight is where the magic happens. This is how the acid tenderizes the meat.

Pull it out 30 minutes before cooking so it cooks evenly.

Griddle screaming hot, thin layer of avocado oil. 5–6 minutes per side without moving them but sometimes longer, I use a thermometer on thickest piece. Try to stretch the thigh thin sometimes it’s stuck together from deboning and you need to pull it flat. You want a deep, dark char. Don’t crowd; crowding steams it instead of searing it.

Done at 165°F internal. Rest 5 minutes.

Chop and bag in quart freezer bags.

The actual secret: it’s the lime juice and white wine vinegar. That combination is what makes the chicken so tender and gives it the signature sour note that reads as “Chipotle.” Don’t cut either one.
On heat: one 7 oz can across 8 lb of chicken lands smoky more than hot. It’s not a burner.

Sourcing and prep
Chicken thighs, guacamole, and a 50 lb bag of rice from Costco

Costco used to carry Queso Mama White Queso with green chiles — 2 lb tub, perfect for this. Mine stopped stocking it. Any deli-container white queso works

Cook the whole 8 lb at once, chop it small, portion 1 lb into quart freezer Ziplocs. Nothing fancy. Freeze and thaw one at a time so it stays fresh. When you run out of the one in the fridge, pull one out of the freezer.

Conservatively, it runs me $8–10 less per meal than Chipotle. Dial the spice up or down or edit it how you like but this was a game changer for me.