WTO confirms zero LNG shipments through Hormuz since MOU signing June 17 — the energy crisis the market isn't pricing
The oil price recovery narrative has one significant omission.
WTO's Strait of Hormuz Trade Tracker, updated this week, confirms zero LNG shipments through the strait since the MOU was signed June 17. Zero. The seven-day moving average has remained near zero since the ceasefire. Fertilizer-related outbound shipments are also zero since the MOU.
Crude oil ships are down 95% from pre-war levels. LNG ships are down 99%. The MOU has not changed either number meaningfully.
Before the war 20% of global LNG transited the strait annually. Qatar invoked force majeure on all LNG shipments in March. European natural gas benchmark TTF is 35% above pre-war levels. The Pearl GTL plant — which produces roughly a third of global motor oil supply — remains offline. Asian power grids dependent on Gulf LNG are running on reserves.
The market has priced a partial crude recovery. It hasn't priced the LNG story at all. Those are two separate crises in the same waterway.
Meanwhile the SPR hit a 40-year low yesterday — 325.7 million barrels as of June 26 EIA data. The price suppression mechanism that's been keeping Brent at $72 expires sometime between late August and mid-October when the reserve hits its authorized floor of 243 million barrels.
Brent at $72 is not a market signal. It's a policy intervention with an expiration date.
Full primary-source breakdown — EIA, WTO, IMF PortWatch, IEA, BLS — published this morning: dmitristewart.substack.com/p/the-oil-mirage