Depleted Cushing Storage is Flashing Red in Crude Markets | East Daley
eastdaley.comu/Mojoint — 3 days ago
r/CrudeOil
WTO confirms zero LNG shipments through Hormuz since MOU signing June 17 — the energy crisis the market isn't pricing
The oil price recovery narrative has one significant omission.
WTO's Strait of Hormuz Trade Tracker, updated this week, confirms zero LNG shipments through the strait since the MOU was signed June 17. Zero. The seven-day moving average has remained near zero since the ceasefire. Fertilizer-related outbound shipments are also zero since the MOU.
Crude oil ships are down 95% from pre-war levels. LNG ships are down 99%. The MOU has not changed either number meaningfully.
Before the war 20% of global LNG transited the strait annually. Qatar invoked force majeure on all LNG shipments in March. European natural gas benchmark TTF is 35% above pre-war levels. The Pearl GTL plant — which produces roughly a third of global motor oil supply — remains offline. Asian power grids dependent on Gulf LNG are running on reserves.
The market has priced a partial crude recovery. It hasn't priced the LNG story at all. Those are two separate crises in the same waterway.
Meanwhile the SPR hit a 40-year low yesterday — 325.7 million barrels as of June 26 EIA data. The price suppression mechanism that's been keeping Brent at $72 expires sometime between late August and mid-October when the reserve hits its authorized floor of 243 million barrels.
Brent at $72 is not a market signal. It's a policy intervention with an expiration date.
Full primary-source breakdown — EIA, WTO, IMF PortWatch, IEA, BLS — published this morning: dmitristewart.substack.com/p/the-oil-mirage
u/Careful_Disaster6566 — 3 days ago
Oil prices are down over 30 percent from their high point.
Gas is down 10 percent. Who is getting rich?
I hope everyone owns stock in the oil companies. :)
u/Curious-Place6991 — 3 days ago
The "Beach Ball Effect" in the Oil Market 🚀
The current oil price action is like pushing a beach ball underwater, the longer you hold it down, the higher it will fly. But you can't hold it down forever. Bulls will have their day in the sun 🚀
u/JLaringe — 4 days ago
u/andix3 — 11 days ago
▲ 0 r/CrudeOil
Less Ayatollah More Rock and Rollah! - Oil Prices Return to Prewar Levels, Four Months Later! Trump Continues to WIN BIG!
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/26/business/energy-environment/iran-war-oil-prices.html oil price right back to where they were before the war and continue to drop and yet the left still throws a tantrum minus an Ayatollah .
u/Odd-Primary4078 — 7 days ago
US playing us all, or getting played; either way oil reserves are running out, slower, but still running out
I’m no expert, just an observer, but I’ve been running a thought exercise and want your take.
Trump recently claimed, "All good, tank bottoms don’t matter since we have traffic."
Let’s put that to the test, looking strictly at outbound traffic since June 15th:
-30% of traffic consisted of tankers (spiking closer to 50% today).
-99% of that tanker traffic went to Asia (China, India, Pakistan, and now Malaysia/Korea).
Over the past 10 days, 152 ships have passed. Roughly 50 were tankers. Most of these carry 750k to 1M barrels (not the 2M barrel VLCCs Trump claimed), but let’s be incredibly optimistic and assume 1.5 million barrels per tanker:
-50 tankers × 1.5M barrels = 75 million barrels transported.
Factoring in roughly 7M barrels of demand destruction and rerouting, we need about 7–8M barrels per day just to maintain current levels.
-75M barrels / 10 days = 7.5M barrels per day.
So, currently, we are roughly breaking even.
If 1% of that flow is dedicated to the US, that’s 75,000 bpd. Add in Trump’s alleged 100M barrels repurposed during the ceasefire since May (roughly 2.2M bpd over 45 days).
The US drawdown alone is 1.4–2.5M bpd. Effectively, they’re just managing the deficit. If you remove those 100M "repurposed" barrels, the math completely collapses. At this burn rate, we hit DOD emergency levels in 4–6 weeks, meaning physical shortages materialize unless the administration continues borderline-illegal drawdowns.
Yes, US oil corporations hold about 1 billion barrels, but that isn't government-owned. Meanwhile, Cushing is already hitting operational lows and enters the "sludge zone" next week. Expect reality to hit hard right after the 4th of July once the optics no longer matter.
Here’s what people are ignoring: the 1,000+ ships that sat idle in the Gulf for four months. Beyond the risk premiums of re-entering the Gulf, those ships desperately need drydocking and maintenance just to clear the barnacle buildup.
Even with Hormuz officially open, uninterrupted flow is a myth. We are going to see massive supply chain disruptions and aggressive spikes in SPOT rates (forget paper markets) over the next 6–12 months.
I personally went all-in on US-levered oil companies - call it degenerate, but the macro environment screams uncertainty. Despite OPEC exits (Iraq/UAE) and headlines about a 2027 supply glut, getting things back to normal will take time.
Even if current traffic keeps the deficit manageable, there is a massive hole in worldwide Strategic Reserves that must be refilled. When that buying starts, it creates a permanent price floor of $70–$80 for the next 1–3 years. That’s a massive windfall for US oil companies, but brutal for consumers (as fuel inflation will get perma-cooked into the macro).
Given Marco Rubio and the broader neocon hostility, a full resolution in 2026 seems highly unlikely. Pressure will keep building.
My more cynical take: soft hostilities and fragmented traffic will continue under a prolonged ceasefire. Trump will play the waiting game until the US, China, and Russia are the only ones with enough oil to actually fuel the tankers. This "Mad Max" scenario is unironically a viable way for the US to inflate away its $39 trillion debt.
How? Funnel money into oil for short-term gains and lend it out on predatory terms. For example, the US already lends oil to other countries today with the stipulation that 1 barrel must be returned next year as 1.25 barrels. If oil spikes to $200, the US government and its banks gain immense leverage over global refineries and sovereign states. They can offload debt, ride out temporary shocks, and dump the ultimate burden on the next administration.
There is a lot happening beneath the surface.
Do you think the broader market is completely ignoring the drydocking/maintenance bottlenecks, or is the assumption just that China and India will absorb those supply chain delays without a panic?
To conclude: seems that this is the beginning rather than the end of this phase of 'oil shortages' - as we continue to eat into reserves at alarming rates, all in the hopes that 'tomorrow' the conflict resolves.
*Based on the 14-point plan, there is zero sense for the US concessions, so the odds of continued conflict are high, or am I missing the point here?
u/Aggravating_Brain_50 — 10 days ago
Brent Oil Returned To Pre-War Levels
Brent oil erased all gains which were made since the war in the Middle East began. The key question is whether it could go even lower.
RSI tells us that Brent oil is oversold and may need to consolidate before it will be able to test new lows.
However, the key events happen in the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic is rising as Gulf countries rush to sell oil before it gets cheaper. Why it could get cheaper?
High prices have already put pressure on global economy, and demand for oil would be lower vs expectations at the start of the year. Meanwhile, high prices and blockage of the Strait of Hormuz encouraged producers elsewhere to boost production.
In this light, Brent oil has a good chance to get back below $70 in the near term.
u/GothamsTrader — 10 days ago
Is this true
I was on YouTube and I saw this video explaining how Dubai was made I always thought it was made by oil but this says otherwise is it true? https://youtu.be/MT0f9Zj6VO8?is=8f\_7ZMFrCRUgAVdd
u/StructureNo2439 — 13 days ago
ADNOC Cuts Murban Crude Price to $101.48 as Hormuz Tensions Ease
Am I crazy or going insane?
Murban Crude August constract on oilprice.com is 67.
The price paid for July is 101 according to ADNOC.
While hormuz is half open, it is difficult to comprehend the level of complacency.
I didn't bet on oil futures since the volatility was hard to stomach. Instead, I bet on biofuel types which the US govenment simply made companies to use more of it anyway. EU and South Asia shortage would be plus, at least that was the thought process.
Despite kinda knowing it... This is just blowing my mind.
Am I missing something?
u/Tight-Stop-2379 — 10 days ago