u/GothamsTrader

Gold has finally found support above $3950 and attempts to rebound.

EU inflation fell below estimates. ECB speakers signaled that they would not hurry to raise rates.

Obviously, bulls hope that Fed would also take a dovish stance. That said, markets expect that Fed would raise rates in September despite falling oil prices.

Is EU data sufficient to break the negative trend in gold? Most likely gold will need additional positive catalysts to gain sustainable upside momentum.

Brent oil erased all gains which were made since the war in the Middle East began. The key question is whether it could go even lower.

RSI tells us that Brent oil is oversold and may need to consolidate before it will be able to test new lows.

However, the key events happen in the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic is rising as Gulf countries rush to sell oil before it gets cheaper. Why it could get cheaper?

High prices have already put pressure on global economy, and demand for oil would be lower vs expectations at the start of the year. Meanwhile, high prices and blockage of the Strait of Hormuz encouraged producers elsewhere to boost production.

In this light, Brent oil has a good chance to get back below $70 in the near term.

It's a key moment for DXY. Fed updated rate projections - at least one rate hike ahead and no rush to cut rates in 2027.

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Neutral rate stays at 3.1% but it is not expected to be reached even in 2028.

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The key question is how many bears got trapped, expecting Warsh to be dovish, which is clearly not the case.

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Technically, DXY has a great chance to gain strong momentum, supported by short covering.

Taking a look at the weekly chart for Brent oil, the picture is surprisingly similar to the one from 2022.

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Back then, heavy sanctions on Russia created temporary deficit. This time, the Strait of Hormuz got closed.

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Oil is ultra - important for global economy so everyone is working around the clock to minimize damage from current problems.

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The chart tells us that oil is already sneaking into the market, just like it did in 2022.

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Will the road to $70 be fast if the Strait is reopened? If the events of 2022 are our guide, the answer is no. Logistics will have to get back to normal, closed wells will have to be put to work again, and oil reserves must be replenished.

It's a bad day for silver bulls as silver tests multi-week lows. Traders react to strong NFP data.

The encouraging jobs data put pressure on silver as traders focus on changes in Fed policy outlook. FedWatch Tool shows that there's a 12.3% probability of a rate hike in July.

The market believes that Fed will raise rates by at least 50 bps by the first half of 2027. Put simply, traders prepare for the start of the new rate hike cycle, which is bearish for silver that pays no interest.

The key question is whether silver will move below March lows at $61. This low marked the 50% correction from January highs. If silver gets below $61, bulls may capitulate.

Here's a weekly chart of USD/JPY, which is trying to climb above 160.00.

Previous attempts to move above 160.00 in 2024-2025 were met by BoJ Interventions. Strong pullbacks followed.

This time, the situation is different. BoJ intervened several times but USD/JPY is back to 160.00, which means that the bullish trend is much stronger than in 2024.

Japanese yen is fundamentally weak, and recent changes in Fed policy outlook put additional pressure on the currency. This time, it will be extremely hard for BoJ to defend the 160.00 level.

Brent oil pulled back amid reports indicating that President Trump believed that US was in the final stages of talks with Iran.

The move is strong, but the market remains range-bound. The range is wide, and prices are moving back and forth as traders react to headlines.

If US and Iran do not reach a deal, the physical deficit will likely push prices out of the current trading range.

It was a hard moment for breakout players when USD/JPY has suddenly touched 157.30 several minutes after testing 158.17.

Is BoJ to blame? That's a high-probability scenario. Sure, the move did not look like two previous interventions, but BoJ must now act carefully or the yen will lose the free-floating currency status.

If it was an attempt to punish speculators, it failed: USD/JPY has quickly moved back above 158.00. In case BoJ doesn't find a way to provide more support to the yen, USD/JPY may soon test the 160.00 level.

Silver continues to move higher as gold/silver ratio tests multi-month lows.

The market remains extremely bullish. Traders ignore rising yields and stronger dollar.

Importantly, there's no serious resistance in the $96-$120 range so the rally may intensify if silver climbs above the $96 level.

Silver markets are showing signs of life as traders prepare for the potential peace deal in the Middle East.

Gold/silver ratio is at multi-week lows, which shows that speculative money has already started to move into silver.

Technically, silver will likely need to get above the $84-$86 area to confirm the breakout.

BoJ Intervened again, briefly pushing USD/JPY towards 155.00. Bulls quickly used the pullback to increase bets against the yen.

BoJ risks losing the status of free - floating currency for the yen if it keeps intervening. The interventions are not strong enough to make a real difference.

If BoJ fails to push USD/JPY below 155.00 during the next intervention, USD/JPY will ultimately get to another test of the 160.00 level.

Iran's attack on UAE fueled a strong rally in the oil markets and puahed Brent oil towards $115.

The key resistance is at $119 area. A move above $120 will likely trigger a wave of panic purchases, pushing Brent towards $130 - $135.

Finally, BoJ Intervened to support the yen. The Bank of Japan had no other options as pressure on the yen would have intensified if USD/JPY remained above 160.

However, the game has just begun. BoJ must push USD/JPY towards January lows near 152 to show it has sufficient firepower to support the yen.

In case the intervention turns out to be a one-time event, USD/JPY will quickly get back to the previous trend, making the task even harder for BoJ.

Brent oil climbed above the $110 level as traders ignored UAE's decision to leave OPEC and focused on US - Iran talks.

There are no signs of progress in negotiations, while the physical market gets tighter day by day. If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed until the driving season, oil prices may skyrocket towards historic highs.

WTI oil pulled back from session highs as President Trump said that Iran wanted a deal.

Prices moved higher as US started a naval blockade of Iran. However, some traders are ready to bet that US and Iran will reach a deal soon.

Trades should note that the futures market doesn't reflect the reality of the physical market. If negotiations fail, prices may easily move above the $120 level.