r/Market_Forecasts

10 trillion in debt rollover at 5.25+ is not possible without blowing up deficit. Fed balance sheet has continued to expand further adding of more pressure (even though warsh said I’ll cut the balance sheet never explaining how) yield curve control, maturity extensions, and outright default are the most likely scenarios here. the 70% of daily trading volume that is tradebots doesn’t seem to have a risk premium in their algorithm. looks like we will be stuck here until something breaks. At the end of the day risk premium will cause the next melt up imo. Bond vigilantes are silvers best friend.

(edit feel a little like nostradamus with my timing of this post after this mornings news. Truthfully I’m not special we as community are ahead of the ball so far that we have to step back to catch it. This is all of our win today common sense won over madness and lies. Have a great day my fellow apes and go get more shiny rocks!)

A lot of the discussion around ARM today centers on its ~18% China revenue exposure (mostly royalty revenue through licensees like Samsung and SK Hynix). Ran the EPS sensitivity instead of just looking at the headline percentage: a 10% cut to that China revenue only moves EPS by about $0.01. The royalty/licensing model has enough operating leverage that revenue shocks don't translate 1:1 into earnings hits.

HPE was up almost identically (+10.0%) the same session, which points more toward broad tech/infra rotation than an ARM-specific catalyst. The AI infrastructure and custom silicon design-win narrative ("physical AI buildout" robotics, edge, data centers) is getting cited as the underlying driver.

Full writeup: https://metricshour.com/briefs/2026-07-10/

Curious if others are seeing the same EPS math or reading the exposure risk differently.

Hi,I write a article about my analysis and predictions on index100, and I’m combining the latest CPI and employment data, plus the November U.S. mid-term election, to gauge September Fed hike odds and Nasdaq’s second-half trend. I would love to hear different views and perspectives here.

My Core Conclusion

Based purely on economic data, the Fed is likely to hold rates steady in September. The mid-term election further lowers the chance of a September hike. Importantly, elections can only delay rate hikes — they will not lead to rate cuts.

The Nasdaq will face wider volatility in the coming months. The September FOMC meeting is not the key driver. Instead, year-end direction will be determined by fourth-quarter cloud company capital expenditure guidance.

Why the Fed will likely pause in September

July CPI shows inflation is cooling but remains far above the 2% target. Current data does not support immediate cuts, nor does it show out-of-control inflation that forces urgent hikes.

July payrolls turned negative, with prior months revised sharply lower. The labor market is cooling gradually without a serious breakdown.

The Fed is stuck in a tough spot: inflation is still sticky, while job growth is weakening. Waiting for more data is the most reasonable choice.

Mid-term election impact

Many people assume elections bring easy policy. I disagree.

The Fed avoids starting a new hiking cycle right before mid-terms to avoid political pressure and market controversy. If inflation does not worsen significantly, the Fed will prefer to wait until after the election.

Elections act as a policy constraint, not a decisive market factor.

Two key market channels

1. Rate expectations
   Election uncertainty reduces September hike odds and limits sharp rises in long-term yields. However, hikes are only delayed, not canceled. Higher rates will stay longer, so a strong sustained rally is unlikely.

2. Risk premium (August–October main driver)
   If congressional power remains unchanged after the election, tech regulation and tax pressure will stay mild, supporting large tech stocks.

If Democrats regain House control, the market will price in stricter antitrust policies, higher corporate taxes, and tighter data center regulations. Even without immediate policy changes, these expectations will pressure tech valuations.

Elections amplify short-term volatility but do not change long-term trends.

Three Second-Half Scenarios

Baseline Case (60%)
Fed holds rates in September, election results are moderate.
Nasdaq trades between 27400–31000 from August to October with clear sector rotation. Hardware and infrastructure stocks hold up better, while some software sectors lag.

After November’s election, markets refocus on fundamentals. Year-end range 31000–32800, guided by Q3 earnings and cloud spending outlook.

Bearish Case (30%)
Two possible triggers:

1. August CPI rebounds, pricing a December rate hike and pushing yields higher.

2. Hawkish election results paired with reduced cloud capital spending guidance.

Election-driven selloffs recover quickly, but downward spending revisions trigger longer cyclical corrections.
Expected drawdown range: 23600–25300.

Bullish Case (10%, low probability)
Requires consistent inflation cooling, tech-friendly election results, and stronger-than-expected global data center spending upgrades. Only with broad positive catalysts can the Nasdaq break recent highs.

Key Monitoring Catalysts

1. Late August: August CPI (critical signal for December hike odds)

2. Mid-September: FOMC meeting (mostly short-term sentiment impact)

3. September–October: Election polling and tech policy expectations

4. Late October–Early November: Big tech earnings + spending guidance + election results (Q4 major turning point)

Final Thought

Recent data supports a September pause, and mid-term politics further discourage near-term hikes.

Elections only create short-term volatility. The real Nasdaq trend depends on U.S. inflation and global cloud spending cycles.

Focus on fundamental data rather than overreacting to election news.

This is personal market analysis for discussion purposes only. Not investment advice.