r/Market_Forecasts

BTC is showing some life after bouncing from the $56K–$58K support zone.

Price is now testing the 20-day EMA near $62K, which is the first major level bulls need to reclaim. A clean daily close above it could open the way toward $63.5K first, then possibly the $69K–$70K zone if momentum builds.

But if BTC gets rejected here, the falling wedge/flag setup could still drag price back toward $56K.

Simple view: $62K is the line to watch. Above, it looks constructive. Below it, bears still have control.

Just chart watching. Don't you dare not DYOR.

USD/JPY attempts to climb above 162.00, a level that was last seen back 1986. Four decades have passed since then.

Japan, which was a tech leader and a booming economy at that time, is now a pale shadow of its former self.

This year, the Bank of Japan made several attempts to provide support to the Japanese yen, but these attempts yielded no results. Reports suggest that Japan is discussing the situation with the U.S., which is not happy with the weak yen.

However, it looks that the power of interest rates is stronger than central bank interventions. U.S. economy stays strong and Fed will likely raise rates as soon as September, while there's little that BoJ can do. At this point, USD/JPY has a good chance to climb above 162.00 and move towards the 165.00 level in the near term.

Brent oil erased all gains which were made since the war in the Middle East began. The key question is whether it could go even lower.

RSI tells us that Brent oil is oversold and may need to consolidate before it will be able to test new lows.

However, the key events happen in the Strait of Hormuz. Traffic is rising as Gulf countries rush to sell oil before it gets cheaper. Why it could get cheaper?

High prices have already put pressure on global economy, and demand for oil would be lower vs expectations at the start of the year. Meanwhile, high prices and blockage of the Strait of Hormuz encouraged producers elsewhere to boost production.

In this light, Brent oil has a good chance to get back below $70 in the near term.

PCE drops this morning and it's the one the Fed actually leans on. the run into it's been firm headline grinding toward 3.8%, core sticky near 3.3%, saving rate falling toward 2.6%.

the thing we keep coming back to is that the dollar's read on these prints hasn't been about the inflation number alone. looking back over the last several PCE releases, the firmest USD setups showed up when three things lined up together, hot inflation, spending that held up, AND a falling saving rate. when one of those broke (like the month income jumped but people saved more), the read got muddier and the dollar didn't get the same lift. so it's been the combination, not just CPI/PCE going hot.

which makes today's components more interesting than the headline. a hot print with firm spending and a still-falling saving rate is the "clean" USD-supportive combo. a hot headline but softening spending or a bounce in saving is a messier signal.

genuinely asking before it prints

are you watching the inflation number itself, or more the spending/saving mix underneath it?

if core comes in hot but spending softens, do you still read that as dollar-positive or not?

and is anyone even trusting the USD reaction to PCE right now with the oil/Iran stuff still pulling the tape around?

>1 Timothy 2:5 There is one God, and one mediator between God and men, the man Christ Jesus;

>Hebrews 7:25 Wherefore He is able also to save them to the uttermost that come unto God by Him, seeing He ever liveth to make intercession for them.

>2 Corinthians 5:21 For He hath made Him to be sin for us, who knew no sin; that we might be made the righteousness of God in Him.

>Hebrews 10:12 After He had offered one sacrifice for sins for ever, sat down on the right hand of God;