u/TraderFanFXE

Taking a look at NASDAQ's weekly chart, the index has finally started to consolidate after the strong rally.

Weekly RSI was in the overbought territory, and the index needed some time to let RSI move back before it would be ready for the next leg up.

A move above the 30,750 level will signal that consolidation has ended and NASDAQ is ready for the next leg of the rally despite worries about AI-related valuations.

USD/JPY attempts to climb above 162.00, a level that was last seen back 1986. Four decades have passed since then.

Japan, which was a tech leader and a booming economy at that time, is now a pale shadow of its former self.

This year, the Bank of Japan made several attempts to provide support to the Japanese yen, but these attempts yielded no results. Reports suggest that Japan is discussing the situation with the U.S., which is not happy with the weak yen.

However, it looks that the power of interest rates is stronger than central bank interventions. U.S. economy stays strong and Fed will likely raise rates as soon as September, while there's little that BoJ can do. At this point, USD/JPY has a good chance to climb above 162.00 and move towards the 165.00 level in the near term.

Micron stock stays close to historic highs as traders react to the recent earnings report, which has exceeded analyst estimates.

Technically, the stock keeps moving higher while RSI is heading lower, which means that the company's shares have already stabilized and may be ready for a new leg up in case additional positive catalysts emerge.

At this point, potential changes in general market sentiment present the biggest risk for Micron stock. In case traders continue to sell AI-related stocks amid valuation worries, Micron shares may ultimatelly find themselves under material pressure.

Finally, NASDAQ attempts to start a pullback after the strong rally. The previous sell-off was mostly driven by profit-taking, but today's trading action may signal that NASDAQ could be ready to move lower.

NASDAQ failed to test new highs after the recent rebound and is trying to get below the 50 MA. The trend would change in case NASDAQ settles below the 50 MA and starts moving lower.

The real test would come if NASDAQ tests the 28,200 level. A move below 28,200 will signal that market sentiment has changed and traders are ready to focus on high valuations.

WTI oil is heading towards new lows as traders focus on signs of progress in U.S. - Iran talks.

There's also an immediate catalyst that is more important than progress in negotiations: the U.S. issued a 60-day licence which allows Iran to sell its oil in the international market.

As negotiations are unpredictable and Iran's economy is in distress, the country will rush to sell all barrels of oil it could get to the market.

At this point, it looks that WTI oil is ready to test the $70.00 level as traders bet that deficit could soon turn into surplus of oil.

Silver prices have been moving lower in recent trading sessions as traders reacted to Fed decision and updated economic projections.

Global markets prepare for rate hikes from the Fed, and silver is no exception. Most likely, rates will stay higher for longer regardless of developments in the Middle East as inflationary damage has been already done.

The technical picture remains bearish, and silver is heading towards the key $61.00 level, which marks a 50% correction from historic highs.

Two catalysts are required for silver to gain serious downside momentum: a pullback in the gold markets and an increase in gold/silver ratio. Both developments would be likely in case the appetite for risk declines and traders focus on hawkish Fed. An additional 10% correction in gold markets and a gold/silver ratio of 75 would push silver towards the $50 level.

This is just one of potential scenarios, but it shows how silver may quickly move towards $50 in case it manages to settle below the key support at $61.

EUR/USD suffered a sell-off as traders reacted to Fed Interest Rate Decision. The Fed left the federal funds rate unchanged and released economic projections.

Fed expects that federal funds rate will be at 3.8% by the end of 2026 (vs 3.4% in March projections). More importantly, the federal funds rate is expected to be at 3.6% by the end of 2027 (vs 3.1% in March projections).

Put simply, markets face the risk of higher rates for longer. Dollar bears suddenly see a significant shift in Fed policy outlook despite "dovish" Warsh, which may lead to short-covering and fuel dollar's rally.

U.S. and Iran did not sign a deal yet - but the market acts as if the Strait of Hormuz has fully reopened. Geopolitical premium evaporates at a rapid pace. What's going on?

Thirsty for cash after several months of problems, Gulf countries rushed to offer their oil to potential buyers as soon as U.S. and Iran said that they would sign an interim peace deal on Friday.

Iran will also market its oil as the naval blockade has been lifted. Perhaps, the market will go from deficit to oversupply in certain regions as producers try to raise cash after the Middle East war.

Where's the bottom? Most likely, the geopolitical premium will not be eliminated completely. Negotiations between U.S. and Iran will continue, and many things could go wrong. While prices may touch the $70.00 level in the near term, the market will need strong catalysts to continue the pullback below $70.00.

The first hours of trading showed that shares of Elon Musk's company are in great demand. The IPO was priced at $135 per share, so everyone who got their shares in the initial public offering are already making money.

The company itself is not profitable due to heavy spending, but investors look past financial statements and focus on SpaceX potential.

Some analysts predict that huge IPOs may break the upside trend in US markets, but I disagree. As investors are trying to find assets to position their portfolios for the future and provide themselves with insurance agains the constant devaluation of fiat money, demand for stocks would not fall.

Gold is under strong pressure after US CPI report, which showed that Inflation Rate jumped from 3.8% to 4.2%. High energy prices pushed inflation to levels that were last seen in the first half of 2023.

Fed has no other options but to raise rates to curb inflation. Other central banks are in a similar situation. Meanwhile, high energy prices hurt currencies in developing economies, forcing their central banks to sell gold to raise cash.

While the long-term fundamental thesis (central banks will buy gold to diversify their reserves in the era of geopolitical turbulence) remains intact, short-term pressure persists.

It remains to be seen whether gold will find support near March lows. In case traders do not rush to buy gold after the strong pullback, it will move below the $4100 level and head towards $3900.

WTI oil pulled back as traders have mostly ignored Trump's recent comments on Iran. US President said that Iran has attacked a US helicopter and that US will have to respond.

It looks that traders believe that US will remain focused on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which is bearish for oil.

The technical picture is bearish as WTI oil failed to settle above the 50 MA at $97.36 during its recent attempt to rebound and pulled back below the $90.00 level. If WTI oil declines below the $85.00 level, it will head towards April lows near the $80.00 level.

NASDAQ continues its strong rally, which started in early April. Traders buy every tiny pullback despite geopolitical uncertainty and worries about potential rate hikes from the Fed.

As usual, many analysts are ready to talk about a pullback or even a bubble, but demand for stocks is extremely strong.

Traders are not worried about a potential pullback - they are worried to miss the generational opportunity to invest in AI-related stocks. This does not mean that they are right and that there would be no pullback, but it's how the market is feeling right now.

Regardless of what you think about companies' valuations, this is not the type of market you want to short. Even if some valuations are irrational, they may stay irrational much longer than short-sellers will stay solvent.

WTI oil remains under pressure amid reports indicating that U.S. and Iran have agreed to extend ceasefire. President Trump has not yet approved the deal.

As usual, these reports have already been denied by various sources. However, the market believes that two sides are moving towards a deal.

"Anti-deal" rhetoric from sources or officials is meant to portray the sides of negotiations as "tough" on each other, so that it would be easier to sell the deal to the public. At least, this is how Mr. Market views the news flow these days.

The technical picture remains bearish, although a potential breakup of the fragile deal may lead to a rally, which will be triggered by short-covering.

Gold prices pulled back as traders reacted to the rally in the oil markets, which was triggered by rising tensions in the Middle East. U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes, while Israel continued its operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

At this point, gold is not ready to move higher. The market is stuck in a tight range, and traders are waiting for geopolitical clarity. Gold will have a chance for a sustainable rally in case it climbs above the 50 MA at $4647.

WTI oil is moving lower ahead of the weekend as traders stay focused on US-Iran talks. Recent reports did not provide any clarity, although it looks that US and Iran are slowly moving towards a deal.

WTI oil was moving higher at the start of the week, but this local trend was quickly broken. If WTI oil settles below the 50 MA, it could move towards the low end of the current trading range in the $90-$92 area. Any move below the $90 level will demand strong catalysts.

There's a true panic in Japanese bond markets as traders focus on the financial stability of the country. At this point it is obvious that the situation is out of control.

USD/JPY is trading near the 159.00 level as traders are cautious: BoJ has already intervened several times and may provide support to the yen again in case USD/JPY crosses the 160.00 level.

However, the major move in Japanese bond markets may have a material impact on USD/JPY. At this point, rising yields have not attracted buyers, so USD/JPY may move even higher. When yields reach a point when the market believes that investors are properly compensated for the risk, demand for the Japanese yen will grow, putting pressure on USD/JPY.

WTI oil tests new highs as traders react to lack of progress in U.S. - Iran negotiations. The risk of another military operation against Iran is pushing prices higher.

WTI oil may head towards the $110.00 level in case it manages to settle above $103.00. That said, the market will remain extremely sensitive to geopolitical news. Any signs indicating the U.S. and Iran are moving towards a deal could trigger a sell-off.

WTI oil gained 3.5% as President Trump rejected Iran's offer and noted that he wanted a better deal.

Oil prices are moving higher, but it looks that the market is skeptical about a potential restart of the military operation against Iran. Today's inflation report showed that inflation rate increased to 3.8%, exceeding the analyst estimate of 3.7%.

Trump has already started to talk about a gasoline tax holiday, which indicates that high gasoline prices, which were triggered by the Iran war, have become a political problem.

In addition, it looks that current price levels have already started to put pressure on global demand. WTI oil will remain volatile in the near term, but it will surely need strong catalysts to get out of the current trading range.

Silver markets are showing signs of life as traders prepare for the potential peace deal in the Middle East.

Gold/silver ratio is at multi-week lows, which shows that speculative money has already started to move into silver.

Technically, silver will likely need to get above the $84-$86 area to confirm the breakout.

WTI oil rebounded from session lows as traders questioned progress in U.S. - Iran talks. It looks that many players were ready to boost their long positions in the $91 - $92 area.

Importantly, WTI oil failed to settle below the 50 MA, which was a positive development for the bulls. That said, WTI oil will likely need significant geopolitical catalysts to climb back towards recent highs near $110.

If WTI oil settles below the 50 MA, it will confirm the bearish pattern and may ultimately move towards $80.