New Quametrix weekly report
GENERATED 6.06.2026, 00:00:00
TACTICAL GAME CHANGER: VIX EXPLODES AS YIELDS BREAKOUT, IGNITING THE CORRECTION
QUAMETRIX WEEKLY GLOBAL EQUITIES & MACRO STRATEGY | 2026-06-05
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The distributive top building process we have been monitoring for weeks has decisively resolved to the downside. Last week's price action, culminating in Friday’s violent risk-off cascade, represents a tactical game changer for global equities. The breakdown was confirmed across our key metrics: a near 40% explosion in the VIX, a concurrent breakout in US 10Y Yields above 4.50%, and capitulatory selling in bellwether indices like the NASDAQ 100, which posted a staggering -4.77% single-day loss. This is not a dip to be bought.
Our Elliott Wave analysis suggests major US indices have completed a terminal wave 5 structure and are now at the very beginning of a multi-week, if not multi-month, corrective sequence (A-B-C). Critically, flow-driven fear indicators do not yet show the signs of true capitulation required for a durable bottom. The CBOE Equity Put/Call ratio, in particular, points to extreme underlying complacency, a classic contrarian sell setup. This non-confirmation suggests the path of least resistance is lower.
Our strategy is to use any near-term, oversold bounces to reduce long exposure and build tactical short positions. Yields are now in the driver's seat, and as long as they remain firm, pressure will persist on equity valuations, Gold, and other risk assets. We are now moving into our early June time window for a significant market pivot, which appears to be playing out exactly as forecast.
US EQUITY BREADTH & SENTIMENT
The sentiment landscape confirms our view that this correction is in its early stages and has not yet induced the widespread fear necessary for a tactical bottom. While some headline indicators reflect nervousness, the underlying speculative positioning remains dangerously bullish.
- AAII Investor Sentiment Survey: The latest survey shows bearish sentiment at 37.00%, just below its historical average. There is a notable lack of panic among retail investors, with bullish sentiment also remaining subdued. This neutral reading indicates that the recent sell-off has not yet caused a significant washout in positioning, leaving ample room for further downside as fear builds.
- CBOE Put/Call Ratios: The data reveals a stark and telling divergence. The Index Put/Call ratio stands at 1.07, indicating a mild degree of hedging and institutional fear. In sharp contrast, the Equity-only Put/Call ratio printed an astonishingly low 0.44. This signals extreme complacency and speculative call buying among retail participants. Such a wide non-confirmation is a powerful contrarian sell signal, suggesting the "buy the dip" crowd is positioned for a rebound that is unlikely to materialize, making them fuel for the next leg down.
The current sentiment backdrop is not one of capitulation, but of a market caught off guard. The lack of pervasive fear suggests this corrective process has significant room to run before a contrarian buy setup emerges.
US MARKETS TACTICAL OUTLOOK
The synchronized breakdown across US indices signals a definitive shift in market character. The false breakout in the Russell 2000 followed by a violent reversal is a classic bull trap, confirming broad market deterioration beyond just mega-cap technology.
SPX (S&P 500)
The SPX has suffered a sharp reversal from its 7620 high, with Friday's -2.64% drop marking a clear breakdown. This price action confirms the completion of a terminal wave 5 advance and the onset of a larger degree correction. The close near the lows of a wide-range bearish candle signals immediate follow-through selling is likely. We view this as the beginning of Wave A. Any bounce towards the 7500 level should be seen as an opportunity to initiate tactical shorts.
SPX · SPX · ~9MO DAILY + FORECAST
● BEARISH
2025-102025-112025-112025-122026-012026-022026-032026-032026-042026-052027-076,4006,6006,8007,0007,2007,4007,600nowM1 · +42d (×4)M2 · +98d (×4)M1 7,175 · MA50 SupportM2 6,981 · MA200 Target
| ASSET | FORECASTED DIRECTION | MILESTONE 1 (PRICE LEVEL / TYPE) | MILESTONE 2 (PRICE LEVEL / TYPE) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPX | Bearish | 7175 (MA50 Support) | 6981 (MA200 Target) |
NASDAQ 100
The NASDAQ 100 was the epicenter of last week's rout, exhibiting a textbook exhaustive vertical move followed by a spectacular -5.87% collapse from its recent high. The -4.77% single-day decline is a classic tactical game changer, representing a capitulation of recent longs. The Elliott Wave count is clear: the push to 30,762 was a final, overshooting wave 5. The subsequent waterfall decline is Wave A of a significant corrective structure. The sheer velocity of this decline suggests a test of the 50-day moving average is imminent.
NDX · NDX · ~9MO DAILY + FORECAST
● BEARISH
2025-102025-112025-112025-122026-012026-022026-032026-032026-042026-052027-0724,00026,00028,00030,000nowM1 · +42d (×4)M2 · +98d (×4)M1 27,563 · MA50 SupportM2 26,126 · MA200 Target
| ASSET | FORECASTED DIRECTION | MILESTONE 1 (PRICE LEVEL / TYPE) | MILESTONE 2 (PRICE LEVEL / TYPE) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NDX | Bearish | 27563 (MA50 Support) | 26126 (MA200 Target) |
RUSSELL 2000
The RUT has sprung a painful bull trap. After briefly printing a new high at 292.88, the index reversed violently, plunging -3.55% in a single session. This false breakout is a powerful bearish signal, indicating a complete lack of conviction from buyers at higher levels and confirming broad market weakness. This failure makes the index exceptionally vulnerable to further downside as trapped longs are forced to liquidate.
RUT · RUT · ~9MO DAILY + FORECAST
● BEARISH
2025-102025-112025-112025-122026-012026-022026-032026-032026-042026-052027-07230240250260270280290nowM1 · +42d (×4)M2 · +98d (×4)M1 274 · MA50 SupportM2 264 · Key Pivotal Support
| ASSET | FORECASTED DIRECTION | MILESTONE 1 (PRICE LEVEL / TYPE) | MILESTONE 2 (PRICE LEVEL / TYPE) |
|---|---|---|---|
| RUT | Bearish | 274 (MA50 Support) | 264 (Key Pivotal Support) |
EUROPEAN EQUITIES
European markets have shown slightly more resilience than their US counterparts but are beginning to succumb to the global risk-off tide. We expect Europe to follow the US lower, though perhaps with less velocity.
DAX
The DAX has been in a slow-motion decline for over a week, a distributive process that has now been accelerated by the US sell-off. The index is trading below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, a technically weak posture. The gradual nature of the sell-off so far suggests this is a persistent trend, not a washout. We expect a test of the lower end of the 120-day range as the correction deepens.
DAX · DAX · ~9MO DAILY + FORECAST
● BEARISH
2025-102025-102025-112025-122026-012026-022026-022026-032026-042026-052027-0722,50023,00023,50024,00024,50025,000nowM1 · +42d (×4)M2 · +98d (×4)M1 24,354 · MA200 ResistanceM2 24,182 · Q3 Target
| ASSET | FORECASTED DIRECTION | MILESTONE 1 (PRICE LEVEL / TYPE) | MILESTONE 2 (PRICE LEVEL / TYPE) |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAX | Bearish | 24354 (MA200 Resistance) | 24182 (Q3 Target) |
EURO STOXX 50 (SX5E)
The SX5E has displayed notable relative strength, holding its ground far better than other indices. However, after failing to follow through on Thursday's strength, it printed a bearish inside-day reversal candle on Friday. While it remains above its key moving averages, this is a make-or-break setup. A decisive break below the 6000 psychological level would signal that the US-led weakness is finally taking hold and open the door to a much sharper correction.
SX5E · SX5E · ~9MO DAILY + FORECAST
● NEUTRAL
2025-102025-112025-112025-122026-012026-022026-032026-032026-042026-052027-075,6005,8006,000nowM1 · +42d (×4)M2 · +98d (×4)M1 6,000 · Pivotal SupportM2 5,898 · MA50 Target
| ASSET | FORECASTED DIRECTION | MILESTONE 1 (PRICE LEVEL / TYPE) | MILESTONE 2 (PRICE LEVEL / TYPE) |
|---|---|---|---|
| SX5E | Neutral | 6000 (Pivotal Support) | 5898 (MA50 Target) |
CAC 40 (CAC)
The CAC 40 printed a textbook bearish reversal on Friday. After pushing to a new 20-day high intraday, the index was aggressively sold, closing near the session lows. This "shooting star" candle constitutes a bull trap and is a significant warning sign. Despite its recent outperformance relative to the DAX, this reversal signals that the topping process is complete and the index is now poised to align with the negative trajectory of global markets.
MACRO & ALTERNATIVE ASSETS
The macro landscape is now dominated by the sharp repricing in yields and volatility, creating severe headwinds for non-yielding assets like Gold and speculative investments like Bitcoin.
US 10Y YIELD (BONDS)
The US 10-year yield is the key driver of this market shift. The decisive breakout above 4.50% on a closing basis is a major technical event, signaling a new leg higher in yields. This move will continue to pressure equity valuations and implies significant further downside for bond price proxies like TLT, which we would expect to break below the 88 level if yields challenge the 4.67 high. We are now in a yield-driven risk-off environment.
US10Y · US10Y · ~9MO DAILY + FORECAST
● BULLISH
2025-102025-112025-122025-122026-012026-022026-032026-032026-042026-052027-074.000%4.200%4.400%4.600%nowM1 · +42d (×4)M2 · +98d (×4)M1 4.670% · Range HighM2 4.750% · Extension Target
| ASSET | FORECASTED DIRECTION | MILESTONE 1 (PRICE LEVEL / TYPE) | MILESTONE 2 (PRICE LEVEL / TYPE) |
|---|---|---|---|
| US10Y | Bullish | 4.67 (Range High) | 4.75 (Extension Target) |
VIX (VOLATILITY INDEX)
The VIX has awoken from its slumber with an explosive 40% rally, closing firmly above 21. This is a clear fear spike that confirms the market's technical breakdown. This is not yet a signal of final capitulation, which would likely require a move toward the 30-31 range high. For now, it is confirmation that the bearish trend for equities is in force. We expect volatility to remain elevated, creating a difficult environment for risk assets.
VIX · VIX · ~9MO DAILY + FORECAST
● BULLISH
2025-102025-112025-122025-122026-012026-022026-032026-032026-042026-052027-0715.0020.0025.0030.00nowM1 · +42d (×4)M2 · +98d (×4)M1 25.00 · Psychological LevelM2 31.05 · Range High
| ASSET | FORECASTED DIRECTION | MILESTONE 1 (PRICE LEVEL / TYPE) | MILESTONE 2 (PRICE LEVEL / TYPE) |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | Bullish | 25.00 (Psychological Level) | 31.05 (Range High) |
GOLD
Gold has entered a capitulation phase. Friday’s washout took the price to the bottom of its 120-day range, erasing months of gains. The breakdown is clear and technically significant, driven by the combination of rising real yields and a lack of safe-haven demand. With an RSI of 30.4, the market is oversold but not yet exhausted. We see a high probability of a further flush-out before any meaningful tactical bottom can be established.
GOLD · XAU · ~9MO DAILY + FORECAST
● BEARISH
2025-122026-012026-012026-022026-022026-032026-032026-042026-052026-052027-074,000.004,200.004,400.004,600.004,800.005,000.005,200.005,400.00nowM1 · +42d (×4)M2 · +98d (×4)M1 4,200.00 · Psychological SupportM2 4,000.00 · Major Support
| ASSET | FORECASTED DIRECTION | MILESTONE 1 (PRICE LEVEL / TYPE) | MILESTONE 2 (PRICE LEVEL / TYPE) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | Bearish | 4200 (Psychological Support) | 4000 (Major Support) |
BITCOIN (BTC)
Bitcoin is in a deep and sustained correction, down over 20% from its recent high. The price action reflects a classic washout, with the current leg down appearing as a 5th wave of a larger decline. The RSI(14) reading of 12.7 is indicative of extreme fear and capitulation. While the trend is unequivocally bearish, such deeply oversold conditions often precede sharp, violent counter-trend rallies. We would not press shorts at these levels and are watching for a final washout low as a potential contrarian buy setup for a tactical rebound.
BTC · BTC · ~9MO DAILY + FORECAST
● NEUTRAL
2025-122026-012026-012026-022026-022026-032026-042026-042026-052026-052027-0760,00070,00080,00090,000nowM1 · +42d (×4)M2 · +98d (×4)M1 67,000 · Rebound TargetM2 59,000 · Final Washout Low
| ASSET | FORECASTED DIRECTION | MILESTONE 1 (PRICE LEVEL / TYPE) | MILESTONE 2 (PRICE LEVEL / TYPE) |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | Neutral | 67000 (Rebound Target) | 59000 (Final Washout Low) |
WEEKLY ROADMAP & STRATEGIC CONCLUSION
The path forward is now clearer: the correction has begun. The coming week will be critical in determining the depth of this initial wave A. We expect any oversold bounces to be short-lived and serve as better opportunities to sell rather than to buy. The key tactical levels to watch are the 50-day moving averages across the major indices. A failure to hold these supports would open the door to a much deeper decline targeting the 200-day averages into the summer. The primary risk to our bearish view would be a sudden and sharp dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve, leading to a reversal in yields. Barring that, the technicals and inter-market signals are aligned for further downside.
DISCLAIMER
The information generated by this AI agent are provided for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute investment, financial, trading or any other form of professional advice or recommendation to trade, hold, or otherwise deal in any financial instrument, product, or service. The information generated by this AI agent are basing on past performance, historical data, technical indicators, chart patterns, and model outputs that are not reliable indicators of future results. No assurance is given as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any information or analysis. Use of this AI agent is subject to the user’s acceptance of this disclaimer. Use of this service is at your own risk.
SOURCES
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hindenburgomen.asp
- https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/1oklex3/the_hindenburg_omen_an_indicator_that_correctly/
- https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/hindenburg_omen_fires_5_signals/
- https://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
- https://en.macromicro.me/charts/20828/us-aaii-sentimentsurvey
- https://x.com/AAIISentiment
- https://www.cboe.com/markets/us/options/market-statistics/daily/
- https://en.macromicro.me/charts/449/us-cboe-options-put-call-ratio
- https://ycharts.com/indicators/cboe_equity_put_call_ratio
SOURCES
- Hindenburg Omen: Definition, 4 Main Criteria, and Example
- The Hindenburg Omen, an indicator that correctly detected the 1987 ...
- Hindenburg Omen Fires 5 Signals - McClellan Financial Publications
- AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
- US - AAII Investor Sentiment Survey
- AAII SentimentSurvey (@AAIISentiment) / Posts / X
- U.S. Options Daily Market Statistics | Cboe
- US - CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio - MacroMicro
- CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio (Market Daily) - YCharts