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After watching most of the other “prestige“ tv shows like The Sopranos, The Wire, Deadwood, Succession, Beeaking Bad and Better Call Saul, I really wanted to watch Mad Men. Five episodes in already when the show still seems to be somewhat finding it’s footing and a lot of people take more time to get hooked it’s already looking like Mad Men will be one of my favorites. Really heartbreaking this last episode to see Don (or Dick) reject Adam so coldly but the show is already really compelling.

Adam was lying to himself when he said he had finally become detached from emotion and let go. He never got over it imo, even when he was killing Martha himself. Adam’s emotions are what drove him the whole time, to the point of extreme selfishness. We see him crying when he sends Jonas back to cause his Dad’s suicide, when he’s killing Martha the second time, before killing Hannah. He spent his whole life fighting what deep down he knew was an inevitable future and suffered through so much nearly any human mind would snap. Eventually he stopped fighting his inevitable destiny and decided to embrace it, thinking the only way to end the cycle of unending pain torment and death for him and everyone around him is to end existence itself, something he considers a curse.

Found his Dad’s body when he hung himself, found out his dad was actually his love interest brother and she was his aunt, his grandfather was cucking his father, he’s kidnapped and his older self lets him be stranded in a post apocalyptic future where everyone he knows is dead, his older self turns out to be a cult leader child murderer, his older self manipulates him into causing his dad’s suicide, purposefully traps his dad in the past, his older self murders Martha right in front of him as part of his plan to end existence, tries multiple times to kill himself but time physically won’t allow it, his mentor manipulates him into creating the loop when trying to destroy it, he gets a letter from “Martha“ saying allowing her to be murdered is the only thing that can save her which he does, only it’s all a trick, he’s stranded in the 1800’s, suffers horrific burns when trying to escape.

In my opinion the human mind can only take so much. Jonas tried so desperately most of his life to fight being Adam but being Adam was inherently predestined. At a certain point he realized escaping the loop was impossible, the only thing he could do is destroy it. Now where his selfishness and lying to himself begins is that he and his loved ones may have fates far worse than death, but that’s not justification for choosing to end the existence of billions on both worlds. Rather Jonas realizes that every step of his life in trying to fight Adam that he has tightened the knot more and more, and eventually realized becoming Adam was inevitable.

So instead of fighting it any longer, he decided to embrace it, and due to projecting the pain of his existence and the existence of his loved ones on everybody else, and realized either it was destroying reality or the loop is inevitable, chose to try and destroy reality itself. That’s where Jonas went wrong imo, but he was a victim of time itself, he had no chance to be anything else. At a certain point Jonas went from trying to break the loop to maintaining it. Jonas does genuinely think he‘s doing what’s best for everyone because he thinks existence is a curse, and it is for him and his loved ones, but he suffers from motivated reasoning and projects his pain and unending hell onto everyone else.

Jonas does this because it’s the only way he can delude himself into thinking his destiny isn’t to become a monster, if his older self who butchers children causes the apocalypse starts a death cult, causes his father’s death, and murders his love isn’t evil, but is suffering because it’s necessary to save everyone from suffering. Rather every horrific thing he has done and is destined to do will be erased, and ending the loop and thus everyone‘s existence is him doing what’s necessary to end suffering rather than being twisted by his pain. That’s why he actively braces maintaining the loop, because he accepts it’s inevitable anyways but this way he feels he has agency and isn’t a monster, his suffering isn’t for nothing, and everything he’s destined to do will be undone.

Adam claims to be detached from emotion but there’s a reason the show explicitly presented the opposite, Jonas is lying to himself about his motivations. I think Jonas held out longer than most people would in his shoes personally, but his actions are still selfish albeit extremely sympathetic. I disagree with the interpretations that Adam was never a villain, he wants to kill everyone in existence because he’s deluding himself and projecting his own pain onto others. Yet he should be viewed primarily a victim of circumstance and time, as he starts out a genuinely good person and only becomes this because he quite literally has no choice or agency in becoming Adam. That’s why, when finally being given an option to make things right, he jumps on it.

It’s the only season to lead the league in points per game and efficiency (technically Jerry West in 1966 lead if accounting for pace but Wilt scored more points), and had a bonkers statistical outlier combination of volume and efficiency. It was the first season to score more than 30 points in under 35 minutes. He scored 1.2 points more than the second highest scorer and 3.4 more points per 100 possessions despite being 21st in minutes per game. Doing this while scoring at 12.8 percent better efficiency than league average is absolutely bonkers, and will probably never happen again.

To put this into perspective the average starter plays roughly 75 possessions per game. If we adjusted the scoring rate per pace and the average offensive rating of the year (how many points per 100 did the league average) the highest scoring rate any player has ever had is James Harden with 37.9 adjusted points per 75 possessions at 5.7 percent true shooting above league average. Steph Curry scored 34.7 adjusted points per 75 at 12.8 percent true shooting. That shows how crazy his scoring season was.

Efficiency is also often underrated in scoring, because remember the offense is scoring without you. So one way to showcase his impact is points per shot combined with how many “true” shot attempts Steph Curry took, and compare that to the league average. Steph Curry has a true shooting of 66.9 compared to league average 54.1. True shooting is if every shot was a 2 pt attempt, what percentage would you convert at. 66.9 percent of 2 is 1.338, so Steph Curry averaged 1.338 points per shot. League average points per shot was 1.082, so Steph averaged .256 more points per shot than league average. Steph took 20.2 fga, and 5.1 ft (fta times 0.44 is the formula because of and 1’s.) So Steph Curry averaged 22.44 true shots per game, adding 5.745 “true” points per game of scoring compared to league average. This would be the best metric ever when adjusted for pace, average minutes played per season etc, pretty comfortably.

But what about Wilt’s 1962 season? How can someone who scored 50.4 points on+ 5.7 ts have a worse scoring season than someone who scored 30.1 points on + 12.8? Well Wilt added .1152 more points per shot than league average, and took 39.5 fga, 17fta, and 46.98 “true” shots. Even assuming he scored 50 points at identical pace (which is patently untrue) Wilt would add 5.41 points per game of scoring. This is of course an ignoring other factors like Wilt playing at a 132.8 possessions per game pace while Steph plays at a 99.3 possessions per game pace, league average offensive rating being 106.4 in 2016 and 93.5 in 1962, team offensive rating being 114.5 vs 95.5 in 1962, the rate of “scoring turnovers” (somewhat difficult to estimate even without not having turnovers per game in Wilt’s era, but we have good estimations of this and how much “true scoring” it adds), players in general averaging way more minutes in Wilt’s era than Steph’s, and team outside shooting (how much of a team’s offensive rating is due to spacing). When we look at all of those, Steph had a better scoring season by an even wider margin.

So when looking at what player provided the most “scoring value” for their team in a season, 2016 Steph Curry looks like an outlier. There are a fair few seasons that have a credible claim to the second best scoring season ever (Kareem’s 71 and 72 seasons, 91 Jordan, 62 Wilt, and 2024 Emibed or 2026 Shai), but Steph Curry’s season stands out as an outlier. When combining scoring volume and efficiency, adjusting for pace, offensive rating, and spacing, Steph’s claim as the best scoring season becomes even more clear.

Now obviously someone who scores 20 in 25 on equal efficiency is the better scorer. There lack of more minutes would be more reflective of coaching choices, roster construction, resting in blowouts etc. and not in a vacuum this obviously has more impact on winning m, as they are more likely to rest in moments where there scoring makes zero difference on the teams odds of winning, plus the psychological effect of scoring the same amount in a shorter period of time on the defense.

But (and this can only be asked by a guy who does a bad job of interpreting statistics), does this actually have the same impact on winning overall? If they both overall score the same amount on the same efficiency, isn’t their scoring in a vacuum equally impactful? Or is the scoring rate of scoring of the same number of points in a smaller number of time more impactful than scoring in a larger period of time due to how much it impacts the teams rate of scoring?

The refs have done there best to rig it for the Spurs today by only giving the a 17 point disadvantage in free throws in the first half. Unfortunately there efforts are paying off, with the Spurs up 27 as a result.

Each player can only have one season for this ranking. This ranking is based on both regular season and postseason value, and is based on the idea of who provided the most championship value with their level of play that year. Seasons like 2016 Curry would be arguably first for regular season but due to injury and finals struggles that season is not on the list. Of course these lists are all subjective and so much cannot be captured by objective means but I’ll try my best. Stats are inflation adjusted per 75 possessions and for defensive strength with real true shooting.

1. Michael Jordan 1991: 34.3p, 7.1rts, 6.1r, 6.4a, 2.5 TOV. Postseason: 34.4p, 8.0rts, 6.1r, 8.9a, 2.5 TOV. 2. 

2. 2000 Shaq: 31.8p 5.5 rts 12.6r 4.2a 2.5 TOV. Postseason: 32.1p 4.8 rts 13.6r 3.3a 1.9 TOV

3. 2013 LeBron: 2013 (regular season): 30.7p, 10.6rts, 8.1r, 8.5a, 3.1 TOV. Postseason: 29.1p, 7.7rts, 8.2r, 8.2a, 2.8 TOV. (heavy consideration for putting 2009 LeBron here, if the box stats and data are taken at face value it’s the clear best season ever). Regular season: 32.7p, 5.0rts, 8.0r, 9.2a, 3.2 TOV. Postseason: 39.2P, 10.0rts, 8.9r, 9.2a, 2.8 TOV.

4. 77 Kareem: 33.2P, 13.3rts, 14.7r, 4.0a. (Postseason) regular season: 28.5p, 9.8rts, 12.4r 4.4a. 4.4 stocks

5. 67 Wilt: regular season: 18.7p, 14.4rts, 12.4r, 7.3a. Postseason: 16.1p, 6.5rts, 16.1r, 7.9a,.

6. 94 Hakeem: regular season: 27.5p, 3.7rts, 10.8r, 3.5a, 4.9stocks, 3.2 TOV.  Postseason: 30.2P, 4.8rts, 10.5r, 4.3a, 5.1stocks, 2.9 TOV.

7. Tim Duncan 2003: Regular season: 26.5p 4.6rts 12.5r 4.5a 3.7 stocks 3.1 TOV. Postseason: 26.1p 6.5rts, 13.5r 5.8a 3.5 stocks 2.5 TOV.

8. Larry Bird 1986: 26.1p, 4.0rts, 9.5r, 6.7a, 3.0 TOV.  Postseason: 24.1p, 7.5rts, 9.1r, 7.7a, 1.8 TOV. 

9. Bill Russell 64: The Celtics had the worst offensive rating of any team yet still had the highest net rating due to the highest defensive rating ever. They had a +6.3 net rating per 100 compared to league average. -10.8 defensive rating compared to league average regular season, -10.7 postseason, both the highest ever. -4.5 offensive rating compared to league average. The best offensive rating compared to league average is the 2004 Dallas Mavericks with a +9.2 offensive rating compared to league average. The highest net rating ever is the 96 Bulls with 13.4. They won 59 games and the championship. 

10. Magic Johnson 87: regular season: 24.9p 6.4rts 6.2r 12.5a 3.7 TOV. Postseason: 22.5p 7.2rts 7.4r 12.7a 2.5 TOV.

11. Kevin Garnett 2004 regular season: 28.0p, 3.2rts, 13.4r, 5.8a, 2.7 TOV, 3.7 stocks. Postseason: 25.2P, -0.2rts, 13.6r, 5.4a, 3.1 stocks, 3.3 TOV.

12. Steph Curry 2017:regular season: 29.1p, 8.1rts, 4.7r, 8.2a, 3.3 TOV. Postseason: 30.6p, 13.0rts, 6.2r, 8.1a, 3.7 TOV.

13. 2023 Jokic: 26.9p, 12.2rts, 13.0r 11.3a, 3.9 TOV. Postseason: 29.7p, 5.6rts, 13.2r, 10.0a, 3.4 TOV.

There have been so many amazing individual seasons by players but what season provided the most value towards increasing the odds of their team winning a championship? Not just from an accolade perspective like getting a chip, MVP or finals MVP, DPOY, scoring title etc. Not just regular season but including postseason, so something like 2016 Curry is probably out. Imo several Jordan, LeBron, Kareem seasons could apply, 67 Wilt, 2003 Tim Duncan, 94 Hakeem, 86 Bird, 87 Magic, 64 Bill Russell, 2004 KG etc.

For me if I had to pick one I would lean 91 Jordan. Ranked as the 6th best scoring regular season ever by Ben Taylor’s scoring model, 24th in points per 100 on +7.1rts and 2.5 TOV, while also being in his playmaking peak (which is arguably a top 10 playmaking peak oat despite low box assist numbers) and being one of the best non big defenders in the NBA that year, elite offball movement and unselfishness. Then in the playoffs he had a extremely slight scoring decline and a massive playmaking jump (one of the best playmaking postseasons ever) with what appears to be the statistical greatest postseason outside of 2009 LeBron ever, without the outlier factors or context that usually has analysts rank 2013 LeBron above it.

2013 LeBron, 2000 Shaq, 71 Kareem, and 67 Wilt were seasons I heavily considered as well. Bill Russell’s defensive impact is hard to rank but something like 65 Bill could be up there for sure. 2009 LeBron probably has the highest ceiling in therms of where you could evaluate his impact of any season. 86 Bird and 87 Magic had insane impacts. 2003 Duncan, 94 Hakeem, and 2004 KG have some of the greatest carry jobs ever. And of course there are arguments that there aren’t even the best seasons of Jordan, LeBron, Kareem etc. If we go exclusively to regular season then something like 2016 Curry is a heavy contender, and is the best offensive regular season ever imo.

What season did a player provide the highest level of performance in NBA history?

Estimated plus minus is considered either the most reliable or 2nd most reliable publically available advanced stat by general managers depending on the poll. The second highest estimated plus minus is Karl Anthony Towns with a very healthy +6.8. The highest EPM playoff runs (beyond 10 games) is LeBron James in 2009 with 14 games and a +9.4, and Kawai Leonard in 2017 with 11 games and +9.4. Wemby is 14 games in (12 full games being fair) with a 10.5 (and was still 9.7 after last game, his worst in the series).

Obviously I am not suggesting that Wemby is literally having the best playoff run in history, and he could obviously underperform in the following games and this could drop heavily. I certainly would say there are still several playoff runs I would confidently put above it at this point. There’s so many factors that go into stats like these, and the sheer volume of the net swings indicates that the team is built around Wemby’s minutes to dominate, which definitely skews the stat to some extent.

But it’s not hyperbole that Wemby is having one of the greatest postseason runs since 2000 thus far, and while that could easily change for the worst, it’s still a remarkable feat 14 games in. And the box plus minus stats certainly back this up. Wemby is +50 in 4 games this conference finals while the Spurs are +4, that’s a 96 point swing (as the player playing the most minutes on the Spurs) in 4 games! He‘s won his minutes all but two games since February 1st, and all but one game where he’s played more than 50 minutes. While this could easily change and Wemby could struggle in following games, thus far his impact has been absolutely enormous. To me Wemby has an extremely reasonable case as the best player in the world right now, and has been the clear best player of the past 3-4 months and this postseason even if Jokic and SGA had better overall regular seasons.