u/CorkNZ2021

Monitoring ends 20 October.

To trigger immediate delisting they must be under $1 for 30 consecutive business days.

Means they just need to close above $1 after Sept 8 and they’re safe.

Be interesting to see if immediate delisting being off the table gives the SP a small lift.

There is an appeal process to the immediate delisting which isn’t pretty and they’d only have a short window to execute.

Hopefully it won’t come to that and thank god the Q2 results were solid.

Counting down to 8 Sept.

Reviewing everything I think today can be seen as a hold which is much better than what people are realising.

Last couple of quarters the share price was rightly hammered, with investors exiting post RS and all the on paper carnage related to the one-off cost losses. But it looks like the bleeding has stopped.

Key takeaways from today

1. Earnings beat forecast
2. No bad news
3. Trucking revenue is increasing – the pivot is happening
4. DTC sales held up better than expected given Will Prowse noise
5. Cost-cutting is working
6. Gross margin 33% ..... up from 2025 27%, 2024 23%, 2023 24% (this is significant and the reason they changed their business to higher margin products)
7. Company is a quarter closer to profitability
8. Mgmt. are executing the plan

Thoughts on delisting and share price   

• Today should reduce investor perceptions of bankruptcy risk (which I believe is priced into the current SP) so there should be fewer sellers, more holders and even a few new investors who think DFLI is worth a punt under $1.50.
• Sentiment will remain poor so will likely stay sub $1.50 without news however I'd be very surprised if the price fell below $1 for 30 days.
• Shorts don't want DFLI delisted and mgmt will have options.
• Even if it did happen there is an appeal process to the immediate delisting.
• We can expect another Stevens order this quarter and more patent news to support the SP.
• Possible new fleet announcements but this doesn’t have to happen to save the company.
• Improved macro/risk on will help SP once Iran situation settles down.
• There's a lot of battered investors in this sub hoping for a lot more today and now thinking its game over, but I don't think thats the case.

Pathway to profitability

• Re: the $70m annual revenue target ... people are missing this is annualised run-rate not $70m for 2026.
• I think this reflects that Q4 might be something like $17m+ which will include further trucking growth (offsetting the weaker RV/DTC) and maybe $3m from Dakota.
• This would put mean Denis has delivered on his key job as CEO which is getting DFLI profitable by the end of 2026 - a good achievement given they're moving into new markets, in a weak RV and freight market, while the Battleborn brand is getting hammered.
• Fair value for a company like DFLI with $70m revenue and breaking even is conservatively $50m-$100m market. Given current sentiment expect the bottom end of the range so an SP of $4m based on breaking even in Q4 is reasonable.
• Trucking revenue isn’t going to explode anytime soon, I think it will just slowly but surely increase through 2027 with revenue increasing to $80m-$90m and low profitability which will support a market cap $100m+
• Then we can sit on our DFLI lottery ticket and hope they crack the solid state model or pick-up some new fleets then we all start to see a return if your bag is $8-$10.
• Meaningful progress on solid state and new fleets will push market cap $150m+.

There’s still a lot of risk and work to be done.

Investors need to understand that moving into new markets takes time and when your clients are trucking fleets, things move slowly. If trucking momentum continues to build next two quarters then we'll know we're onto something.

They've spoken about trucking revenue doubling in Q3 which should be very exciting for all share/bagholders.

If you've been holding through all the carnage I think you'd be mad to sell now when we've just seen an important step in the right direction.

That’s my 10 cents. No hopium and no AI this time lol.

While share prices for micro caps and DFLI especially are getting shredded it looks like the Werner adoption of eAPUs is kicking in.

A few posters complaining about ‘where’s the orders’ but many fleet deals will be commercially sensitive.

Werner just won an environmental trucking award and their statement included:

“Werner has committed to reducing its CO2 emissions by 55 percent by 2035. To achieve this milestone, the company actively pilots and tests sustainable truck models, alternative energy options and cutting-edge solutions to maximize fuel efficiency and drive reductions in engine idling. Werner’s ongoing efforts focus on executing data-driven strategies, eliminating non-billable "deadhead" miles, and refining equipment specifications—such as aerodynamic profiles and lithium battery hoteling along with low-idle auxiliary power units—to ensure sustainable practices result in real-world environmental impacts”

https://investor.werner.com/news-and-events/press-releases/news-details/2026/Werner-Named-a-2026-Top-Green-Fleet-by-Heavy-Duty-Trucking/default.aspx

Also found this article from Nov last year that indicated 1200 had been installed which suggests Werner adoption could higher than we realise:

https://s1.q4cdn.com/812671447/files/doc_downloads/ESG/2025/2025-Werner-Sustainability-Brief-1113d.pdf

Werner has their earnings call this week and it was sound and noted:

CapEx Increase: 2026 Net CapEx expectations raised to $215M–$250M to complete strategic fleet pre-buys ahead of the upcoming 2027 EPA engine emission regulations.

Capex for 2026 H1 was technically negative due to equipment sales exceeding spend meaning all of the capex will fall into 2026 H2.

I asked Gemini about what how the $250m would be spent as 2027 emissions rules are restricting the amount of new tractors until fleets are hitting their emission targets:

The vast majority of this H2 cash deployment is earmarked for fleet modernization and securing a conservative, limited volume of 2026 model-year pre-buy tractors before the expensive 2027 EPA emissions transition.

Hopium for the day is that Werner and other truckers will be using 2026 H2 to get themselves ready for the 2027 emissions rules which are tough.

Praying for an earnings meet, successful cost reduction and solid Q3 guidance and we can breathe again. Roll on earnings!

Started replying to the comment in the Lounge re: the stock price being manipulated then got on a roll.

No depth in volumes makes stocks easy to manipulate and is normal in the modern market with algos etc.

This is also the reality of out of favour penny stocks … they can sit in the doldrums for long periods.

DFLI has to deliver on the pivot to demonstrate future value which will increase institutional and retail interest … only then it will begin trading as a normal stock.

Right now DFLI is attempting a pivot away from a DTC sector that carries major bad PR into a lucrative but slow moving sector (trucking) and beyond that the dream of licensing their dry cell technology.

Ignore the eggs that like to spam this sub and others. There’s just a sad part of the world who think they’re speaking truths but are really just keyboard warriors who enjoy putting out this kind of shit to unsettle or upset other people, or they’re bitter cos they’ve lost money.

I’m across a lot of subs and DFLI is one of the best for positive and negative views being shared and only total nasty twats being kicked.

Investors do need to understand what they’re buying and know this could grind to zero in the next 12-24 mths or 10x in a month and 50x in 12-36 mths.

DFLI is a classic early stage new tech play fraught with risks and problems. So don’t be checking stuff daily and anguishing over the stock price it’ll drive you nuts.

Understand the SP will grind down on no news then spike on good news, sell off (probs a dilution if it’s a good jump)… and will only stay up on sustained good news.

Dilution will happen more than once going fwd as this is why tech companies list to raise capital.

Things like DOE funding are a bonus but not hugely relevant.

Prowse, class actions and product recalls are likely to be a sideshow. Bad PR and hit the DTC but that’s old news … I could be wrong but I don’t think this is going to make much of a difference provides DFLI achieves the pivot.

What we need to see Q3 and Q4 are some big trucking contracts for fleets getting ready for the new 2027 emissions rules. If these don’t happen it means DFLIs eAPUs aren’t all we’ve hoped they would be and we’ve lost.

Q2 earnings and Q3 guidance will be critical if these are bad then it will suggest the pivot is not happening and then it’s just the dry cell tech left which is a long shot without the trucking revenue.

I’d hoped for more good news in Q2 … Stevens 500 out of 2500 was a good start but much more is needed.

If the pivot is going to happen it will take some time so patience.

Asked Gemini about the likelihood of DFLI getting DOE funding.

Some of the information references Dragonfly's website so could be overly positive.

That aside it seems like they tick quite a few boxes and have a decent shot. Good to read they can use equipment and inventory to cover any contribution matching requirements.

NASDAQ: DFLI) is an ideal candidate for federal grants targeting domestic lithium battery manufacturing, solid-state battery R&D, and clean energy supply chains. 

Given DFLI's recent U.S. and European patent allowances for advanced dry electrode and solid-state manufacturing processes—combined with their ongoing commercialisation of Battle Born Batteries® and fleet idling reduction systems—the company aligns with multi-million dollar opportunities issued by specific U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) offices. 

DFLI would most strongly qualify for funding from the following key DOE offices and categories:

1. Advanced Materials & Manufacturing Technologies Office (AMMTO)

• Focus Area: This office explicitly finances the commercialisation of novel manufacturing processes designed to secure domestic clean energy supply chains. 
• Relevance to DFLI: DFLI's proprietary dry electrode process removes the need for toxic solvents and heavy drying machinery, drastically reducing manufacturing footprints. AMMTO regularly puts out Funding Opportunity Announcements (FOAs) focused on Next-Generation Manufacturing Processes and Advanced Materials.

 

2. Office of Manufacturing and Energy Supply Chains (MESC)

• Focus Area: Backed heavily by the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, MESC provides massive capital infusions to scale the domestic production of critical materials and batteries. 
• Relevance to DFLI: DFLI could pursue large-scale deployment grants under the Battery Manufacturing and Recycling Grants program. While these opportunities often carry high minimum bid and matching requirements, the DOE allows companies to count existing corporate property, factory equipment, and unencumbered inventory toward their matching contribution.

3. Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E)

• Focus Area: ARPA-E provides funding for high-risk, high-reward energy technologies that are too early for traditional private investment but have massive market potential. 
• Relevance to DFLI: DFLI’s newly granted patents for solid-state battery chemistry place them in direct alignment with ARPA-E programs (such as the PIONEER or EVs4ALL initiatives). These programs look specifically to accelerate the development of batteries featuring lower thermal runaway risks, higher energy density, and faster charging speeds.

 

4. Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO)

• Focus Area: VTO focuses on decarbonising the transport sector through grid integration, advanced electric vehicle components, and medium/heavy-duty truck efficiency.
• Relevance to DFLI: DFLI recently won awards for its Battle Born DualFlow Power Pack, designed to eliminate diesel engine idling in long-haul shipping. VTO regularly funds commercial deployment and validation projects aimed at reducing freight and fleet emissions.

 

Proven Non-Dilutive Strategy: State-Level Tech Hubs

DFLI has already proven it can successfully secure government grants by leaning on regional ecosystem programs. In May 2026, DFLI secured a second consecutive $527,000 grant through the Nevada Tech Hub to expand its in-house cylindrical cell prototyping and material testing capabilities. They can leverage these state-level wins to serve as the baseline cost-share requirement required to unlock larger, multi-million dollar prime federal DOE rewards. 

Adjacent DOE Battery Funding Pathways

While DFLI previously secured localized state-level funding via the Nevada Tech Hub program, they track larger rolling infrastructure grants. The other major program tailored to their profile is the Battery Materials Processing & Battery Manufacturing and Recycling Grant Program (DE-FOA-0003585). The full application deadline for its most recent $500 million tranche closed on April 24, 2026

• Selection Notifications: Anticipated to roll out before 30 June 2026. This is the explicit window where the DOE plans to announce which battery manufacturing and recycling projects have been cleared for funding. [
• Award Negotiations: Tentatively scheduled to begin in the third quarter of 2026 (July through September). During this time, selected companies will finalize compliance parameters and cost-share structures with the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL).

Did a few Gemini questions to understand more about Werner and where DFLI sits with them.
I was interested to see they replace trucks everyone 2.1-2.3 years.

Not sure if they'd put a new APU when they replace or transfer over.

Here's what I found. Someone else can TLDR format.

Competitor fleets like Werner Enterprises (WERN) structure their battery and electric auxiliary power unit (APU) deployment timelines using a "Pilot-to-Procure" tiered framework.

Unlike regional carriers that might buy systems in single bulk batches, mega-fleets like Werner de-risk the transition by tying battery rollouts to intensive field testing and their standard equipment replacement cycles.

1. Extended Real-World Pilot Phase (Multi-Year)

Before signing a contract, Werner subjects the battery systems to rugged, real-world operating conditions.

• The Process: Werner ran an extensive, long-term pilot program evaluating Dragonfly Energy's Battle Born DualFlow Power Packs.
• The Metrics Tested: They meticulously measured how well the lithium iron phosphate (\(\text{LiFePO}_{4}\)) chemistry withstood extreme seasonal temperatures, driver "hotel loads" (microwaves, fridges, climate control), and how effectively the units reduced main-engine truck starts during mandatory rest breaks.

2. The Initial "First Order" Validation Phase

Once a pilot proves successful, Werner initiates a measured commercial order rather than immediate total fleet saturation.

• The Contract: Werner placed their initial commercial purchase order for Dragonfly's idle-reduction systems.
• The Strategy: This first-tier integration allows Werner's maintenance hubs to master the physical infrastructure, test software integration, and establish diagnostic baselines across a controlled sub-segment of the fleet before committing tens of millions in capital.

3. Synchronization with Fleet Age Cycles (2-Year Window)

Werner structures its scaled rollout to perfectly match its highly aggressive truck replacement timeline.

• Young Fleet Strategy: Werner maintains one of the youngest tractor fleets in the industry, keeping an average company truck age of just 2.1 years.
• The Timeline Tie-In: Instead of pulling older trucks off the road to retro-fit them, Werner prioritizes installing lithium battery APUs onto brand-new incoming tractor chassis. This ensures the 8–10 year design life of the lithium battery pack aligns efficiently with the vehicle's peak lifecycle.

4. Adjusting for Network Expansion (M&A Scoping)

Werner’s macro deployment timeline must continually adapt to its massive corporate acquisitions.

• The Scale Shift: Werner finalized a $245 million acquisition of FirstFleet, expanding their combined network to more than 9,800 trucks.
• The Impact: When a competitor fleet grows this rapidly, their battery deployment timeline expands. Werner must now audit the newly acquired FirstFleet assets to figure out how to scale auxiliary battery systems across an entirely new segment of regional and dedicated routes

 

Check out how their greenhouse gas emission targets are shaping their timeline

 

Werner Enterprises’ overarching greenhouse gas (GHG) emission target—a 55% reduction in carbon emissions intensity by 2035—is the primary driver accelerating their short-term auxiliary battery deployment timeline.

Because heavy-duty electric tractor technology is not yet scalable for long-haul routes, Werner is utilizing lithium idle-reduction batteries as their most immediate weapon to hit near-term milestones. [1]

1. The Urgent Scope 1 Deadline

• The Target: Werner reported a 24% reduction in Scope 1 CO₂ emissions since 2020.
• The Timeline Impact: To maintain this downward trajectory toward their 2035 goal, they cannot wait for a fully electric freight network. This creates immediate pressure to deploy battery APUs now. Because main-engine idling accounts for a massive percentage of a fleet's Scope 1 emissions, transitioning from diesel-burning APUs to lithium-ion systems provides an instant drop in carbon intensity per mile.

2. Bridging the "EV Reality Gap" (Pre-2030)

• The Technology Bottleneck: Werner is actively testing fully battery-electric (EV) and hydrogen fuel cell tractors. However, due to heavy vehicle weights, limited regional charging infrastructure, and long charging times, they only have a small handful of full-EV trucks in service.
• The Battery APU Solution: Since full-fleet electrification is realistically pushed past 2030, Werner’s near-term timeline relies on hybridizing their existing diesel fleet. Deploying systems like Dragonfly Energy's Battle Born DualFlow Power Packs allows them to achieve zero-emission "hotel loads" (climate control and electronics during driver rest breaks) without waiting for commercial EV trucks to mature.

 

3. Regulatory Compliance Compression

• CARB and EPA Milestones: Strict looming mandates from the California Air Resources Board (CARB) and the EPA's 2027 emissions standards mean that diesel idling will face heavy financial penalties and tighter restrictions.
• Proactive Integration: Werner is structuring their battery APU deployment ahead of these hard legal dates. By integrating the systems into their young 2.1-year fleet rotation cycle today, they ensure compliance well before the regulatory deadlines impact their bottom line.

Summary of Werner's Dual-Track Timeline

Phase	Emissions Strategy	Primary Technology
Current – 2027	Immediate Scope 1 Reductions & Eco-Driving	Lithium Battery APUs & Renewable Diesel
2027 – 2030	Regional Decarbonisation & Intermodal Growth	Expanded Battery APUs & Regional EV Trucks
2030 – 2035	Final Push for 55% Intensity Reduction Target	Hydrogen Fuel Cells & Long-Haul Electric Tractors

There's increasing questions around the credibility of the DVLT sub and they're now banning people that raise concerns ... I am feeling ACHR sub vibes.

They've just permanently blocked me for raising concerns about paid promoters or even employees being involved in the sub.

I still have a small holding and am happy to stay in the stock but for any new investors they need to be careful about the hype the DVLT sub is pumping out there.

Positive news followed by PT increases … very niiiice!

Canaccord raised the firm’s price target on Vertical Aerospace (EVTL) to $10.50 from $9.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said despite some rain-induced delays in the Cotswolds, Vertical Aerospace delivered on its promise to demonstrate full piloted transition flight, which is generally considered to be the greatest hurdle in tiltrotor development. The firm views this achievement as a material de-risking event for investors that verifies the VX4’s performance characteristics in advance of CDR for the Valo.