The last two polls showed Sununu beating Pappas and that really stuck out to me, especially if this is going to be a blue wave.
Most populated on slide 1 and least populated on slide 2.
On this day in 2018, Richard Cordray was leading Mike Dewine in the polls to become Governor of Ohio. Dewine won that election by 3%. Same time in 2020, Joe Biden was leading Donald Trump in Ohio, then Trump won by 8%. In 2022, Tim Ryan was leading against JD Vance, then Vance won by 6%, and at this time in 2024, Brown was leading, but lost by 4% on Election Day. Fast forward to today, polls are showing the same thing, with Brown and Acton leading against Husted and Ramaswamy, respectively. Why do so many people believe Ohio will flip blue this year when we’ve seen this same pattern over and over for multiple election cycles now?