u/Data_Rich

Hi all, quick follow-up to my LCK / LEC / LCS post. With the LEC Spring split going into playoffs, I wanted to zoom in on the current LEC-only sample.

The question here is not just "who has the best KDA" or "who is on the best team." It is: compared with what usually happens in this champion / role / matchup, who is doing more than expected?

This version is just LEC Spring. The rest of 2026 is still useful context, but I wanted the main rankings to match the split.

Model note: the underlying pre-game model picked about 65% of held-out games correctly with about a 0.70 AUC, so I treat the matchup signal as useful but not gospel.

Chart 1: LEC Spring player ranking

https://reddit.com/link/1te3dss/video/505lw2q27c1h1/player

The more interesting part is not just who is first, but where each player is winning: lane, map, damage, or turning leads into wins.

Chart 2: Lane pressure vs overall grade

https://reddit.com/link/1te3dss/video/b0ghapv77c1h1/player

This is the main picture for me. Right means more lane pressure. Up means better overall matchup grade. The upper-right is where the really scary profiles live.

Chart 3: Role-by-role races

https://reddit.com/link/1te3dss/video/t4jx0coa7c1h1/player

The role races are not all the same. Some roles have a clear top name, and some get messy fast. This is where the best arguments probably start.

Chart 4: Team shape by role

https://reddit.com/link/1te3dss/video/4jkvxwbd7c1h1/player

Team shape matters. This view shows where each roster is actually strong instead of just looking at the standings.

Chart 5: Spring ranking with full-year context

https://reddit.com/link/1te3dss/video/10r0liam7c1h1/player

The colored dot is Spring. The gray dot is the full 2026 LEC sample.

As always, I am more interested in whether this passes the gut check than pretending the model is perfect. I do not watch every LEC series anymore, so if something looks very wrong, tell me. That is usually where the next better version comes from.

P.S. Additional shoutout to https://oracleselixir.com/ for the data. Tim Sevenhuysen is doing great work out there.

Hello G2 friends, I know it has been a while, I have been pretty busy with work. But I am back with another matchup rankings post, this time looking at G2 vs KC.

The question I wanted to look at is pretty simple:

**What gives G2 the cleanest path through draft?**

The matchup model is currently getting about 68.6% of pro games right across 5,778 games, with a 0.751 AUC. AUC is basically how well the model separates wins from losses across all confidence levels, so higher means it is finding real signal instead of just guessing. That does not make every ranking correct, but it gives me enough confidence that the matchup data is worth arguing over.

https://preview.redd.it/xxem2a19c41h1.jpg?width=2623&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=36ca70d050ab56e91f7123492a57bc1d5d1741aa

First, the meta.

This is the current patch picture across LEC/LCK/LCS.

The important thing is that a pick being "meta" is only half the problem. The scarier version is when a meta champion overlaps with something the player is already good at. Using my matchup rankings, I then got a player skill value across the leagues and ranking based on they have been performing in matchups recently.

The faded bar is the larger 2025-2026 baseline. The dot is current LEC Spring form. So I am trying to separate \"this player has just been hot for a few weeks\" from \"this has been a real profile for a while.\"

This is the player matchup ranking board.

And then here is a scatterplot of champions, player skill on those champions, against the meta.

https://preview.redd.it/fvhsnomyc41h1.jpg?width=2711&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=a9e38c5ee7230f381148cdac5779c5c41894ff86

This is probably the main chart for how I would think about the series.

For KC, the obvious one is still **Kyeahoo Orianna**. Orianna is everywhere, and Kyeahoo grades well on it.

The other big one is **Busio Nautilus**. It gives KC engage, river threat, pick potential, and a very normal way to start fights.

Then I keep coming back to **Canna Rumble**. I do not think Canna is the KC player I am most scared of overall, but Rumble is exactly the kind of champion that can make a game messy even if the rest of the draft is not perfect.

So the draft question is not just "what do we ban?"

It is: **what trade leaves G2 with the most ways to play the game?**

https://preview.redd.it/czk6nkrmd41h1.jpg?width=2741&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=7f006aef9a3008228c647f365b5f861837927405

This is the KC board by role.

And then the breakdown of the matchup historically.

https://preview.redd.it/n3p3ktssd41h1.jpg?width=2761&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=9c8629eab924253a06d45a7ecc123b8d49aa0b11

The H2H history lines up with the same general idea.

SkewMond vs Yike is the big early-game edge in the current-player H2H. That does not mean "jungle wins every game," but it does suggest G2 should prioritize it.

Caps vs Kyeahoo is closer at 10 than I expected. Hans vs Caliste is also close/slightly KC-favored in the early lane data. So I would not frame this as "G2 just smash lanes and win."

I would frame it as:

**Keep bot playable, keep mid from becoming a free Orianna game, and give SkewMond enough agency to connect the map.**

https://preview.redd.it/8q9mjr4xd41h1.jpg?width=2709&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4a318bb678be25d9b958a6815e4577a5faadb9c7

So if I am building a G2 ban plan, I am starting with the above by role.

My rough takeaway:

**G2 should not draft like they need a miracle. They should draft like they need structure.**

Keep the KC comfort picks from making the game too easy, then preserve enough of G2's own map tools that KC cannot solve every lane at once.

As always, some caveats:

- This is not saying the model knows draft better than the teams.

- Draft depends on side selection, scrims, patch reads, flex picks, and what each team is actually willing to play.

- Some champion samples are still noisy, even with shrinkage.

- Matchup rankings are based on pro-game outcomes, so they are useful signal, not a perfect measure of raw player skill.

And check out my LoL post yesterday if you want: https://www.reddit.com/r/leagueoflegends/comments/1tc5gyk/comment/olqigjq/?context=1

P.S. AS ALWAYS, additional shoutout to https://oracleselixir.com/ for the data, Tim Sevenhuysen is doing great work out there.

Hi all, I have done some matchup rankings in the past and before LEC playoffs, I wanted to bring back my old matchup rankings and cut LCK / LEC / LCS three ways: who is best overall, who is winning lane, and who turns lane advantage into wins.

The simple idea: raw lane stats can lie. If Jayce is supposed to smash Kayle by 25 CS and Kayle is only down 5, Kayle probably played that matchup well.

So this is not just CSD or gold diff. It is asking: compared with what usually happens in this champion/role/matchup, who is doing more than expected?

There are real caveats. Matchups are only one layer of the game: region strength, team strength, jungle pathing, support roams, weakside assignments, and team comps all affect what a player can do. I try to account for some of that, especially league context, but I would still read this as a way to find interesting player stories rather than a final answer from a spreadsheet.

The prediction side of this is at 68.6% accuracy (after champ select) across 5,778 games with a 0.751 AUC. AUC is the model's ability to separate likely winners from likely losers; 0.50 is guessing, 1.00 is perfect separation. Higher is better because it means the model is more often giving the actual winner a higher pre-game win probability than the loser. That is not meant to make any one ranking automatic, but it is the reason I am comfortable using the matchup scores as a starting point for player discussion.

Let's get into it:

https://preview.redd.it/293fyxkhix0h1.png?width=2268&format=png&auto=webp&s=27223737fe98e5b3434627b0ee1a735bd1bcf6af

Who is winning lane while also ranking well:

https://preview.redd.it/u93y9prwix0h1.png?width=2170&format=png&auto=webp&s=53f51d2bc64f5719ea981206382a3c62e305d49f

https://preview.redd.it/j26utyoajx0h1.png?width=2268&format=png&auto=webp&s=f2710732d49ac12fbdb2fa8fc4414b8fc3c11101

And then here is a new view I am trying, taking the lane matchups and seeing who is then winning after winning lane.

https://preview.redd.it/7imwf7xrjx0h1.png?width=2170&format=png&auto=webp&s=1bc75b1ce599e7d015eb1d6ca6a14ffc5fa42b91

P.S. AS ALWAYS, additional shoutout to https://oracleselixir.com/ for the data, Tim Sevenhuysen is doing great work out there.