⚡️ACHR Stock Rises Overnight: Archer Aviation’s Defense Ambitions Have Barclays Turning Bullish With 69% Upside
✅ $ACHR upgraded to Overweight
$8 price target
✅ $JOBY downgraded to Sell
$4 price target
Major $ACHR catalysts: Innovative defense tech, Boeing deal, Defense and Physical AI platform, Existing high-profile institutional investors.
That’s a TWO-TIER consensus gap between Archer vs Joby. Makes sense, especially with Joby coming off the heels of a major $117 million unfavorable verdict. 👀
✅ Insider Sales
✅ April 10~October 8 (6 months)
Joby - $22.6 million
Archer - $2.87 million
** In the past 12 months, Joby insiders have offloaded a staggering $40.43 million in shares.
Source: https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/JOBY/insider-trades/
One case worth watching is EASTWOOD VS JOBY (Santa Cruz Superior Court Case No. 25CV03794)
A former Senior Structural Design Engineer at Joby reported concerns over alleged FAA regulatory violations and “unauthorized editing of engineering data sets” that reduced safety standards.
This alleged “unauthorized editing of data” is extremely concerning considering Joby’s already troubling safety record. Any discovery of practices that could endanger the public deserves to be pursued to the fullest extent.
The case remains ongoing and could proceed to trial.
I wrote a few posts about the case earlier this year and included which Joby executives were referenced in the lawsuit and details surrounding the plaintiffs work scope and performance:
🚨 Things are so bad at Joby (like 70% down bad) their community is turning a nothing burger into a pity party. lol
Just like the USITC opening a Joby investigation, the court proceeding at the “pleading stage” simply means there’s enough alleged evidence to examine the claim. Only difference is the consequences of the USITC investigation and this case are nowhere near being comparable!
Archer got what it wanted. A federal investigation on Joby. A sanctuary for George Kivork. Hawthorne is completely immune. Everything else is just an expedition for Joby to try and save face—hoping they can eke out something no matter how small or inconsequential.
Joby is using poor George’s exit to cry foul over a deal they never had. The underlying dispute is actually with the Developer. Turning that into a case against Archer or Hawthorne is a much harder proposition— and pretty much mitigates this from turning into anything consequential. 💯
How does a company that’s not even certified (let alone flown a single passenger) find themselves in such a predicament this early? 👀
+ The Aerosonic vs Joby case went to a jury trial last week and a ruling is expected shortly. Joby could be facing $300M in damages on top of an injunction to cease certain areas of development.
+ In April, the USITC formally instituted Archer’s Section 337 investigation against Joby. An evidentiary hearing is scheduled 3 months from now (Jan 2027).
+ Other pending lawsuits include multiple whistleblower “safety” cases by former senior Joby engineers. More updates on these as they come.
I’m probably missing others. But this is especially concerning given the consistent pattern we’ve been seeing with Joby. Especially in an industry that governs itself, alongside the FAA, on discipline, integrity, compliance, and accountability. 💯
⚡️Very interesting take on Seeking Alpha today.
The author (analyst) recommends closing the JOBY/ACHR pair trade and maintaining a speculative Buy on ACHR and a Hold on JOBY pending further certification clarity.
Taking it a step further, I believe the payload constraints, a viable emergency crash landing plan, glide ratio, etc. will continue to hold back Joby’s certification progress. Archer has been doing the heavy lifting from the start so when it carries out its flight tests, it should be off to the races. 💯
Cathie at it, again. 😀
Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest bought a sizable stake in Archer Aviation on Tuesday, September 8, while trimming its position in several high-profile , including Palantir Technologies and Advanced Micro Devices.
Archer just crushed it this summer— Thunder/Halo, ZEE, Boeing, Midnight City-to-City, AEG (LA’s first vertiport). The guidance and momentum heading into the next couple of quarters will look as strong as it’s even been.
Labor Day weekend is here. Afterward, we’re off to the races…🚀🤞
Getting my dancing GIFs ready….
First vertiport in downtown LA 💯🚀
Another article in Billboard:
https://www.billboard.com/pro/aeg-partners-with-archer-aviation-for-air-taxis-at-la-live/
Perhaps the most overlooked aspect of Archer’s recent Boeing deal.
The majority of Wisk’s workforce is based at its Mountain View, CA HQ— right in Archer’s backyard.
That’s a lot of talent that would take months, if not years, to hire. 💯💪
✅ Archer and NASA forged a strategic partnership in 2024
✅ Adam and the team meet with NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman at NASA Ames Research Center earlier this year
✅ NASA featured Archer’s Midnight in a promotional video for the Max Power Tech Expo & Air Show on Nov. 7-8
✅ NASA’s Former CTO & Deputy CIO sits on Archer’s board
Could NASA provide an update on the battery technology it has been researching with Archer? Are there other major initiatives in the works?
Will Midnight be flying at the event?
Feels like something significant could be announced. 🤞🌕🚀
⚡️Talk about a momentum shift.
In just 3 months, the market-cap gap between Joby and Beta has shrunk from roughly $6~7 billion at its widest to less than $1 billion today.
Archer is also closing ground, with shares up approximately 43% over the past month, compared to 5% for Joby. All of this unfolding despite Joby’s nearly decade-long head start over both Beta and Archer.
As I wrote in an earlier post, the industry is evolving. The signals are getting louder. Good to see change shaping the industry. 💯
It’s no coincidence…
That a week after Anduril and Archer unveiled Thunder and Halo at Farnborough, reports came out that Anduril’s next funding round was being discussed at a massive $100 BILLION valuation - up from $61 billion just a few months ago.
My gut tells me that Anduril closes this round (or at least the first tranche of it) within the NEXT 60 DAYS. How the news of this translates to $ACHR —and by how much— is anyone’s guess. But the need for wingmen in the new autonomous warfare era may be one of the most significant developments shaping the future of defense.
When investors are willing to add nearly $40 billion in valuation in a matter of months, something tells me Thunder is going to be way bigger than most people realize.
** Not FA. Just a little common F’n sense. 😎
We’re only a day into the major announcement but I’m already thinking ahead…😎
One interesting piece of the deal that wasn’t mentioned yesterday: Boeing’s potential role in manufacturing.
There is just no scenario where I don’t see Boeing playing a role in bringing Midnight to market at scale. We’re talking about one of the most accomplished and respected aerospace manufacturers in the world, a rich history spanning 110 years.
Boeing and Stellantis bring very different and highly complementary strengths. Boeing brings aerospace engineering and aircraft manufacturing know-how. (Boeing currently delivers roughly 600 commercial aircraft a year) Stellantis brings high-volume manufacturing expertise and the workforce/processes needed to scale.
With Boeing now Archer’s largest shareholder and a seat at the table, I just can’t see them sitting on the sidelines when it comes to scaling Midnight! 👀
Wow 🤩
How is Archer going to fit everything in one call? There’s so much on the plate. 🤩 Great to see N703AX and N704AX both active over the past 48 hours. Looks like we got some VTOL testing in on 704. (Flightware) Transition feels imminent.
Any updates on Halo/Thunder would be hugee. Farnborough was the unveil. Next comes the roadmap. I’ve got a feeling we may get a surprise or two here soon.
Q2 2026 —
+ Midnight Cert/Testing/Launch Update
+ EIPP Schedule
+ Abu Dhabi
+ Defense - Thunder (Anduril/Partners)
+ Commercial- Halo (Partners/Customers)
+ AI/Tech - ZEE
+ Manufacturing- New Morgan Hill Facility
+ ?
✅ Press release here:
✅ More details can be found on Archer’s technical blog:
Midnight is about to be unleashed 💪