What if the kingdom of Wehlen was restored?
It is possible for Rizia to launch the Crown restoration pact, an initiative to support monarchist movements in unstable republics. If relations between romus and smolak do not improve, Wehlen could be a priority target of this initiative. Assuming that members of the dynasty that ruled over Wehlen are still alive.
After all, the country was once an ally of Rizia. Moreover, it is a territory rich in natural resources and which would allow to connect Rizia to Rumburg without passing by the Markian sea dominated by Valsgland.
We can’t say that Wehlen is very stable. The standard of living for Wezeks is among the lowest in the world, and the suicide rate is through the roof. The bluds are leading an insurrection in the north of the country and power is very centralized around smolak. It is not unthinkable that if Smolak were to die before his son reached adulthood, the country could suffer a third civil war.
Obviously, this project would be very complex to implement. Direct military intervention would be difficult, even with a simultaneous attack from Rumburg and Rizia with an overwelming power projection. Stabilizing the new regime would be even harder. After several decades, monarchism is probably a marginal movement but it has the advantage of being able to promise a fantasized past. After all, the republic has above all brought to the country civil war, famine, and a regime that is still just as tyrannical, if not more, than before.
Given that United Contana is unlikely to abandon such a strategic pawn, perhaps the monarchists could ally themselves with liberals to build a constitutional monarchy. If Wehlen develops a market economy and financially compensates for the nationalization of the old regime, perhaps Lespia could support the change.
It is likely that this scenario will fail and that Rizia will just be stuck in an endless war like Afghanistan, but what would happen if Grace managed to expand by sustainably tearing off an ally from the CSP? How would a restored Wehlen Kingdom change the world order? What would it change for Sordland? For the ATO? The CSP?