WCF Preview vs Spurs - 3 Key Factors
Alas, our long-awaited showdown with the Spurs in the WCF is finally here, the first of potentially many to come! This will be an iconic matchup as no 62-win+ teams have faced each other in the playoffs since the 1998 NBA Finals.
The Spurs are 4-1 against the Thunder in the regular season, one of three teams that have beat the Thunder multiple times in the regular season (trivia fact: the other two are Minnesota Timberwolves & Phoenix Suns – the latter earning their second win in the regular season finale when we rested our starters). The Spurs seemingly may have the Thunder’s number in the regular season, but regular season matchup success doesn’t always translate to the same postseason success (e.g., the Knicks beat the Celtics in last year’s playoffs despite the Celtics beating the Knicks 4-0 in the regular season).
So, what are the key factors to look for to reverse the regular season outcomes? Here are my three key factors:
1. Limit points in the paint: The Thunder are the second best team in the regular season in limiting opponent points in the paint, with an average of 41.6 points allowed. In the 5 games we played against the Spurs, we allowed an average of 49.6 points in the paint. In the regular season, the Spurs were 9^(th) in points in the paint, while in the playoffs, they’ve been the 2^(nd) best team. There’s only been a slight uptick in % of total points from points in the paint (43.5% in regular season vs. 44.3%) while the total amount of points in the paint have relatively stayed the same from the regular season to the playoffs for the Spurs, which means their efficiency in getting points in the paint have been about the same between the two segments.
This begs the question: who’s leading the points in the paint charge for the San Antonio Spurs. Stephon Castle had 48 points in the paint across the five games. I vividly remember us not having an answer to Castle’s drive.
In the one win we had over the Spurs? Stephon Castle had his lowest # of points in the paint against the Thunder (6)… ironically, Dort did not play that game and Ajay Mitchell had the most minutes assigned to Stephon Castle as the primary defender. That’s not to say that we shouldn’t put Dort on Castle because sample size is limited, but it is interesting to note.
What’s more interesting? Dort hasn’t drawn the primary Castle assignment at all…
· NBA Cup Semi-finals: Alex Caruso had the most min/possessions on Castle
· 12/23 Loss to the Spurs: Jalen Williams had the most min/possessions on Castle (I assumed this was in staggered mins with Shai on bench because he drew the Wemby assignment)
· 12/25 Loss to the Spurs: Cason Wallace/Jalen Williams had a decently even split on Castle
· 2/4 Loss to the Spurs (not significantly relevant since we rested half of our team/starters): Aaron Wiggins
It can be argued that Jalen Williams has spent the most min/possessions (on a % basis given when healthy). So I’d be interested to see if we move Dort from Fox to Castle, especially with how good Castle has been in the playoffs, while Fox has been relatively average.
2. Generate turnovers & points off turnovers: The Thunder was 2^(nd) in the regular season in causing turnovers, with an opp turnover rate of 16.5% (the Pistons leading the league with 16.8%). In our wins, our opponent turnover rate was 17.1%. In the games that we lost to the Spurs, we had an opponent turnover rate of 13.4%. This would’ve been bottom-10 in the regular season, tied with the Washington Wizards. Think about that for a second with all the ball hawks we have on this team with Caruso, Cason Wallace, Jalen Williams, Shai, etc.
As such, some of our offense was stifled – in the regular season games that we’ve won, we would average 23.5 points off turnovers. With the losses against the Spurs, that was 14.5. In the regular season, of the games we won, ~19% of all of our points were from turnovers. In the games against the spurs, of all of our points scored, only ~13% came from turnovers. The Spurs guards were not making many mistakes against us, and it seemed like we couldn’t speed them up… we averaged ~25% less steals against the Spurs vs our regular season games that we’ve won. (8 avg steals against the Spurs vs 10.3 in games that we won).
It does seem that the inexperience may be slightly impacting the Spurs in the playoffs. In the regular season, they were the 5^(th) best team in the league at avoiding turnovers. In the playoffs, they’ve been 8^(th) or just middle of the road (uptick from 13.3% to 14.7% in turnover rate).
I don’t have Second Spectrum/Synergy data anymore but it’ll be interesting to see how much we dial up the full-court and/or ¾ court pressure against the Spurs. It didn’t feel like we did that much during the regular season (probably for good reason to load manage).
3. Make them pay from 3: I’ve deliberately left this last, because I’ve seen a ton of Reddit rhetoric saying it’ll come down to how we shoot from 3s. Our outside shooting is important but I wouldn’t argue it’s the most important factor. Our DNA is in our defensive identity of creating havoc, point off turnovers and making easy buckets around the rim difficult. Consider how we’ve won the championship last season despite shooting poorly (38.8% from 3s in regular season to 33.8% in the playoffs).
To further illustrate this point, our offensive rating in our losses against the Spurs was an average of 111.8 vs regular season of 117.6 (delta of 6.2). Meanwhile our defensive rating in our losses against the Spurs was an average of 120.3 while our regular season defensive rating averaged 106.5 (delta of 13.8).
With that out of the way, 3 point shooting will be an important factor, just not the most important factor (in my opinion). In the regular season, in the games that we won, we averaged 37.3% from the 3. In the losses against the Spurs, we averaged 30.5%. Our shot diet was slightly different too e.g., in the regular season games that we won, we averaged 38 attempts from the 3. In the losses against the Spurs, we shot 35 attempts which is ~10% less. Ultimately, not significant but interesting given Wemby’s defensive range in closeouts, etc.
Closing thoughts:
Aside & inclusive from the key factors that I’ve listed above, I truly believe this game will come down to how we contain the trio of Castle/Fox/Harper e.g., can we speed these guards up to cause turnovers, minimize their impact in the paint, etc. I’ve deliberately not talked much about Wemby. Jalen Williams will probably continue to draw that assignment. Interestingly enough, in the win against the Spurs, we also brought in Kenrich to spell Jalen Williams as he drew the 2^(nd) most min. on Wemby that game. Get ready to see reduced min/opportunity for Hartenstein (he’s averaged 20-25 min per game against the Spurs). We’ll see more of Jaylin Williams and Kenrich Williams this series.
Interesting wrinkles since regular season
The obvious one for the Thunder is the addition of Jared McCain to help stretch the floor more for us. The primary one is that we’re finally fully healthy, which we rarely were against the Spurs.
For the Spurs, we didn’t see many Carter Bryant minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes an elevated role this series e.g., drawing more defensive matchups against Shai or Jalen Williams.
Prediction
I have OKC in 7 games. We haven’t yet seen how the Spurs handle a pressure, tight 7-game series and that’s where inexperience helps the Thunder a ton. If we can keep winning out at home, we should be in good shape. For the Spurs, I’d imagine their best chance is stealing one at Thunder’s home and sneaking away in 6 if they were to make an upset happen.