u/DistZeta

• AI Overviews MAU: 2.5B+, AI Mode MAU: 1B+
• Monthly token processing: 3,200 trillion (+7x YoY)
• Enterprise token budgets exhausted before May; 80% workload shift to Gemini 3.5 Flash saves $1B+/year
• Billing model shift: daily prompt limits → compute-used pricing; AI Ultra plan at $100/month

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• In aggregate, DRAM prices will increase +200% YoY and NAND prices will increase +186% YoY in '26
• Have little incentive to expand HBM capacity further. Because the wafer conversion ratio for HBM production is 3–4x, and the profitability difference versus commodity DRAM has narrowed significantly
• Forecast HBM prices will rise again further in '27
• Expected to maintain CAPEX discipline on supply expansion to prevent HBM content per AI data center from declining next year
• Raising Micron's target price from $425 to $800

DistZ

H200 rental prices surged 56% in just 3 trading days, surpassing the B200

The U.S. approved H200 chip sales to 10 Chinese firms including Alibaba, Tencent, and ByteDance, with each allowed to purchase up to 75,000 units

The total 750,000-unit allowance meets industry expectations but falls short of meeting scaling demand — Chinese CSPs are unlikely to scale back aggressive AI capex, and all state-funded data centers will continue purchasing only domestic AI accelerators

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Q2 revenue $7.91B (consensus $7.65B); semiconductor systems $5.97B (+16% QoQ, record high)

Gross margin 50.0% (25-year high); EPS $2.86 (consensus $2.68)

Q3 guidance $8.95B (consensus $8.15B)

CY26 semiconductor systems revenue growth 30%+ (raised from 20%+); advanced packaging $2B+ (+50%+)

CY27 flagged by management as "another powerful record year"

Major customers now providing 8-quarter rolling demand forecasts — longest visibility in company history

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LPDDR4X ASP: +70–75% QoQ expected

LPDDR5X ASP: +78–83% QoQ expected

Smartphone brands under rising cost pressure; 2026 production volume cuts possible

High-end: 12GB | Mid-range: 8GB | Entry-level: 4GB (16GB adoption declining)

PC shipments forecast to decline on rising memory BOM costs

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Market forecast raised to $1.5T by 2030, up from prior estimate of $1T

AI/HPC to account for 55% by 2030

AI accelerator wafer demand projected to grow 11x from 2022 to 2026

2nm and A16 chip capacity to expand at 70% CAGR from 2026 to 2028

CoWoS capacity to grow at 80%+ CAGR from 2022 to 2027

$31.28B in CapEx approved

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Q1 2026 gross margin: 66% (all-time record)

Nvidia's purchase obligations: $16B (2024) → $95B (2026), ~6x surge in 2 years

SK Hynix, exploring Intel EMIB adoption (due to TSMC CoWoS supply shortage)

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Big techs have apparently been offering to fund SK Hynix's production lines and even cover EUV equipment costs just to lock in supply.

They're having to put down 30–40% upfront when signing contracts.

HBM is already sold out through 2027.

Micron's CEO straight up admitted they can only fulfill somewhere between half and two-thirds of demand.

DistZ