u/Dvir971

My thoughts on my personal favorite Best Picture winner.

Give it a read and let me know what you think!

Does anyone have an organize list/timeline on when are the “big” contenders for BP (and other ATL categories) nominations are debuting to a big enough audience so we can start getting some early reactions and we can start being wiser?

I’m not talking about when they come out for general audiences (like on theaters or streaming), but somewhat similar to the early reactions we got for LBN and Fjord from festivals.

I’m talking about movies like “Digger”, “WH9”, “The Debut”, “Social Reckoning”, “Behemoth!” Etc. Or even more screening of LBN and Fjord etc, that will bring broader reactions.

Thanks in advance!

For started i want to establish this is not a hate post- Dune pt. 2 was my favorite film in its year and I actively rooted for it to win as much as it could back then, unlikely as this was after precursors established. Pt. 3 is my most anticipated picture remaining to be released this year too.

I see many people, including top “experts”, predicting Pt. 3 as a frontrunner in BP and BD categories, and personally it doesn’t make sense to me, realistically.

It appears that some say we are in for a “Return of the King” scenario. It’s possible we will see something like this, but personally I find it a little unlikely. The comparison is just strange to me.

One thing that is important to get into context is that ROTK was a massive crowd pleaser (not in a bad way, but still an epic mostly-happy conclusion to the beloved saga). “Dune Pt. 2” was more close to that in term of catharsis in the end, but going by the “Dune Messiah” book, “Dune pt. 3” is presumably going in a complete opposite direction than ROTK, in terms of crowd pleasing and a perfectly tied up catharsis.

A closer comparison would be Game of Thrones S8. It ended up sweeping the Emmy’s, yes, but that was after the 3 previous seasons kinda swept the Emmys as well. It already had an insane support from industry, and it just continued the course. Also it was still the biggest show IN HISTORY, so it was hard to deny. But we did see how so many of the general audience reacted to the final season (unfortunately, personally I loved it). So I don’t expect ROTK levels of fan acclaim to Pt. 3, unless the writers changed a lot of it. But who knows.

Here with the Dune movies, the first movie done very well BTL, but certainly not ATL (no nom for Denis in directing), and pt. 2 underperformed in both. Thinking it will actually be the the 3rd, unconventional, part that will shift the trendline is, mayhaps possible in a way, but not very likely, in my personal opinion.

And don’t get me wrong, the fact it’s not a crowd pleaser doesn’t ruin its chances. Oscar’s doesn’t necessarily go to crowd pleasers. We might be surprised, and we need to wait to see the reception. But it does, in my opinion, render the entire ROTK comparison rather strange. Especially in a year we have something like ‘The Odyssey’, which is not a conclusion to a trilogy but actually closer in nature to ROTK by all means.

What do you think? Other than hope-dicting, why do so many people expect Dune pt. 3 to change the course?

Awards Expert aggregate is currently predicting 16 nominations.

For 14 of them (Best Production Design, Score, Cinematography, Costume Design, Director, Sound, Supporting Actress - Hathaway, Lead Actor, Casting, Adapted Screenplay, Visual Effect, Makeup & Hair styling) the film is ranked as win competitive (top 3 in the odds for winning), so unless some shocking surprise happens, I don’t see it scoring less than 14.

In 2 categories, Supporting Actress - Samantha Morton and Supporting Actor - John Leguizamo, the movie is marked as a plausible nomination, but on the fence.

This takes it up to 16, with Best Song and an additional nom in Supporting Actor still being somewhat possible, at least IMO.

Personally, I think we have a good chance of getting a new nominations record this year.
What do you think? Explain in the comments below.

View Poll

Awards expert is currently predicting 16 nominations.

For 14 of them (Best Production Design, Score, Cinematography, Costume Design, Director, Sound, Supporting Actress - Hathaway, Lead Actor, Casting, Adapted Screenplay, Visual Effect, Makeup & Hair styling) the film is ranked as win competitive (top 3 in the odds for winning), so unless some shocking surprise happens, I don’t see it scoring less than 14.

In 2 categories, Supporting Actress - Samantha Morton and Supporting Actor - John Leguizamo, the movie is marked as a plausible nomination, but on the fence.

This takes it up to 16, with Best Song and an additional nom in Supporting Actor still being somewhat possible, at least IMO.

Personally, I think we have a good chance of getting a new nominations record this year.
What do you think? Explain in the comments below.

View Poll

The most underrated piece in Sir Nolan’s filmography

Per Deadline:
“It took Christopher Nolan’s multi-Oscar-winning 2023 pic Oppenheimer 595 days to final at just over $330M stateside, and it’s taking the director’s The Odyssey just 13 days to outstrip that result”.

Absolutely incredible. ‘Oppenheimer’ was a huge success to be sure, but this puts things into a whole new perspective lol.

My spoiler free review of The Odyssey!

I was initially optimistically expecting something along the lines of 80-85 but the early reactions are thankfully way better than I hoped they’d be.

And before you ask, no, we don’t really need the validation of critics and I usually don’t care about this. But in this specific movie, it’s going to be overwhelmingly review bombed on sites like IMDb, Letterboxd and Rotten Tomatoes Audience Score, so it’ll be good to have something to counter that.

Additionally, it will boost the odds for Oscar #3 for Sir Nolan 🤞

I was initially expecting something along the lines of 80-85 but the early reactions are way better than I hoped they’d be.

And before you ask, no, we don’t really need the validation of critics and I usually don’t care about this. But in this specific movie, it’s going to be horribly review bombed on sites like IMDb, Letterboxd and RT Audience Score, so it’ll be good to have something to counter that.

Additionally, it will boost the odds for Oscar #3 for Sir Nolan 🤞