u/Elegant_Reading_8271

I'm Long Gold from an Elliott Wave perspective but I also see the potential of an inverse H&S pattern. You can see a smaller one already played out.

Wave (iv) of a Leading Diagonal pattern may be complete as price retraced 78.6% of wave (iii). Price now looks to be heading up in wave (v).

Target: 0.8200

Invalidation: 0.79616

A measured move where Y=W targets 0.7673 but that is just a guideline and it could fall well short. Invalidation of the pattern is 0.79252.

I'm bearish the USD based on the the charts of individual pairs I trade. Here is some added confluence. This is the chart of the US 2-Year Treasury Bond which moves in the opposite direction of US yields. So far the move from the top wave (A) is in 3 waves which could be the completion of wave (B). The pattern could form an Elliott Wave Flat pattern taking price above 103.825 in wave (C). If so, US yields would fall putting pressure on the USD. The big caveat here is that there is no indication as of yet of a bullish reversal.

Entry: $88.26

Stop: $89.38

Target: Open

Trade Result: Closed at $83.13 (4.5R) on Thur evening and watched in horror as price continued to freefall. Tried to be cute and trade around the position thinking I could re-enter short at a higher price.

A break of the corrective channel could lead to increased selling pressure. A measured move of the A-B-C pattern targets 1.16167

Trade Result: Target essentially hit, price traded down to 1.16172 (May 15).

Looking left, Power Grid formed a Head & Shoulders pattern which played out as a measured move. Price then rebounded but failed at the neckline of the H&S and then tested the previous swing low but failed to break that level. A Double Bottom formed and price moved higher, eventually pushing past the neckline a few weeks ago. Note how the neckline of the H&S also acts as the neckline of the Double Bottom. Price is now backtesting the neckline at the crucial $309 weekly level. I view this as a bullish chart pattern as long as the $309 level holds on a weekly basis.

Price broke down from an ascending channel in an impulsive manner and has subsequently retraced between 50% to 61.8% of the decline. RSI on H4 is right around 70.

Entry: 1.8560

Stop: 1.8695

Target: Open (expecting price to fall below 1.8020)

Risk/Return Ratio: 4 (minimum)

The triangle (wave b(purple)) that I proposed in a previous post resolved shortly thereafter as price moved down to form wave E(circle), and then as on several other occassions price spiked up rather quickly. I managed to get the bulk of my position at 115.54 and added some more at 115.69 once price had moved above wave B(circle). While I expect price to eventually target above 117.52, I believe the more likely scenario is that this current 3 wave (a-b-c) move up will be part of a larger A-B-C. The measured move out of the triangle targets 1.1706 but it may fall short so I'll be watching the 78.6% extension at 1.1664 which lines up perfectly with the level of previous support. Another buying opportunity may present itself if price falls back in 3 waves thereafter. The price path I've drawn is just a possibility and a guideline, it is not a prediction.

The pair may be forming a symmetrical triangle on H1. As the pair has tended to spike lower and then rebound strongly, I will be using a limit order to enter Long at the level of the ascending trendline. Whether this pattern plays out or not, I am bullish this pair based on the Daily wavecount as shown. The Stop for this trade is 113.841.

This wavecount is just a small portion of the larger wavecount of my analysis. My initial entry was at much higher prices but I have added here as I am expecting a 5 wave decline which does not appear complete. Price should not exceed wave (iv) so the stop is very tight. I am not risking a significant amount of capital to this particular entry as I already have a good size position.

Entry: 0.7813

Stop: 0.78307

Target: 0.7765 (may have to adjust)

Risk/Reward Ratio: 2.7

EDIT: Trade Result = Stopped Out

I had a Bullish bias heading into Friday.

Price had retraced 61.8% from the top in 3 waves (A-B-C). Wave C Fib ext was 178.6% of Wave A. Confluence of these two important levels was bullish but I did not have a feel for the overall wave count so wasn't ready to go long just yet.

As the wave count was unclear, I wanted one more confluence so I switched to the 3 hour chart which showed prior support at the $4560 ish level. This level was later broken. The 4 candle formation below was symmetrical. Not perfect but close enough: The bodies of the first candle and the fourth candle were similar; as were the bodies of the second and third candles with matching tails (had the third candle closed a little lower, it would have been perfect symmetry).

I view this symmetry as a fakeout or false break.

Ready to go Long now so back to the 30 min chart. After the 6:00AM EST bullish engulfing candle I had the trigger to go Long. Entered Long on the next candle after a pullback at $4567.

Not much went into the exit decision other than the fact that Silver was approaching $77 which was a level I was looking for a Short. Closed out the Gold Long at $4659. A little lucky to catch the top for sure.

I had a Bullish bias heading into Friday.

Price had retraced 61.8% from the top in 3 waves (A-B-C). Wave C Fib ext was 178.6% of Wave A. Confluence of these two important levels was bullish but I did not have a feel for the overall wave count so wasn't ready to go long just yet.

As the wave count was unclear, I wanted one more confluence so I switched to the 3 hour chart which showed prior support at the $4560 ish level. This level was later broken. The 4 candle formation below was symmetrical. Not perfect but close enough: The bodies of the first candle and the fourth candle were similar; as were the bodies of the second and third candles with matching tails (had the third candle closed a little lower, it would have been perfect symmetry).

I view this symmetry as a fakeout or false break.

Ready to go Long now so back to the 30 min chart. After the 6:00AM EST bullish engulfing candle I had the trigger to go Long. Entered Long on the next candle after a pullback at $4567.

Not much went into the exit decision other than the fact that Silver was approaching $77 which was a level I was looking for a Short. Closed out the Gold Long at $4659. A little lucky to catch the top for sure.

I had a Bullish bias heading into Friday.

Price had retraced 61.8% from the top in 3 waves (A-B-C). Wave C Fib ext was 178.6% of Wave A. Confluence of these two important levels was bullish but I did not have a feel for the overall wave count so wasn't ready to go long just yet.

As the wave count was unclear, I wanted one more confluence so I switched to the 3 hour chart which showed prior support at the $4560 ish level. This level was later broken. The 4 candle formation below was symmetrical. Not perfect but close enough: The bodies of the first candle and the fourth candle were similar; as were the bodies of the second and third candles with matching tails (had the third candle closed a little lower, it would have been perfect symmetry).

I view this symmetry as a fakeout or false break.

Ready to go Long now so back to the 30 min chart. After the 6:00AM EST bullish engulfing candle I had the trigger to go Long. Entered Long on the next candle after a pullback at $4567.

Not much went into the exit decision other than the fact that Silver was approaching $77 which was a level I was looking for a Short. Closed out the Gold Long at $4659. A little lucky to catch the top for sure.

Entry: 0.7865

Stop: 0.78775

Target: 0.7765

Risk/Reward Ratio: 8