u/Elly0xCrypto

The recent dump back down to the $77k range shouldn't surprise anyone who has been tracking the higher timeframe resistance.

The rejection at $82k went down exactly as expected. If you look at the structural history of these cycles, the pattern is just repeating itself. The market ran into a massive wall of overhead supply, and now Bitcoin is starting to follow a very specific downward path.

Based on how the order flow is thinning out below us, the next few stops are looking pretty clear if the selling pressure keeps up:

$77K → $73K → $68K → $71K

We could easily see $70k hit within a matter of days if the current momentum holds, with a final macro market cycle bottom playing out later this autumn. I’m playing this defensively right now and I have some liquidity on Nеxo so I can react instantly to whichever level holds.

Are you guys trading this setup ?

I’ve found this Glassnode data over the last couple of weeks and it is showing that the market trend is changing.

The number of wallets holding 100+ BTC is steadily climbing, but the real story is in the mid-to-large tier. Wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have accumulated roughly 41,000 BTC in just the last fourteen days. That is a massive amount of supply being pulled off the market in a very short window.

What makes this timing interesting is that we got back above the $78,100 level. This is the first time we’ve cleared that specific level since January, and seeing whales buy the breakout suggests they don't think this is just a fakeout. When the big players accumulate during a reclaim of a major mean, it usually signals that the local bottom is in and they’re positioning for the next leg up.

I’ve been looking at the big picture of the hard asset game lately, and the numbers between Bitcoin and Gold are staggering.

Back in 2024, the combined market for these two was roughly $17T, with Bitcoin holding about a 15% share. Fast forward to today, and that total market has ballooned to $35T. Surprisingly, Bitcoin's share has actually dipped to around 4% of that total.

To me, this is a massive divergence that has to correct itself. I’m personally expecting Gold to pull back by 20% to 30% eventually, which would naturally lower the total cap and force money to rotate toward Bitcoin.

If the total market cap for hard assets just stays flat at $35T and Bitcoin simply reclaims its 15% share, we’re looking at a $250k Bitcoin in the next cycle. When you look at it through that lens, it’s not a wild theory it’s just math and market share.

We’ve seen this pattern before. Every time gold peaks, the volatility settles, money flows out of the yellow metal, and it rotates directly into Bitcoin right before the major bull runs kick off. The halving isn't even the main driver anymore; the real story is this global liquidity shift. The 14 months of bear market pain are behind us, and it feels like we have a solid 1.5 to 2 years of bull market ahead.

I’m staying positioned in BTC mostly and keeping some of my stack on nеxo to have fast liquidity when i need to open other trades. The 250k target for the next bullrun seems crazy, but it's not.

Are you guys still hedging with Gold, or are you fully positioned for the 15% market share flip?

I’ve been looking at the macro today and the gap between stocks and crypto is honestly hard to process. The S&P 500 just hit a new all-time high of 7,200, essentially adding trillions in market cap over the last month alone.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin is sitting around $76k, still down from that $126k we saw. It feels like two completely different worlds right now, and I think there are a few reasons why:

1. Whale Accumulation: This looks like textbook consolidation. While some are feeling the fatigue, the on-chain data shows massive players like Metaplanet, Strategy are still aggressively building their treasuries.
2. Shift in Market Sentiment: After the high volatility of the last year, a lot of capital has rotated back into the relative safety of major indexes. People are prioritizing stability while they wait for a clearer signal that the crypto bull market is ready to resume.
3. The MAG7: Outside of BTC, most crypto assets (even ETH) haven't touched the returns of the major tech stocks over a 5-year window. When people can pull 5x to 10x returns on big tech with way less stress, they have on alts.

Even with the current frustration, the big picture is actually improving. We have the GENIUS Act providing a real framework for stablecoins now, and once we get more clarity on the CLARITY Act, I think the institutional money could really start to move the sector.

I’m staying patient and keeping some liquidity nехo to be ready while we wait for the market structure to catch up to the S&P's rally, and i have set some limit orders on 82k and above.

NOT a financial advice!

Hello guys, price tapped 79.45k and showed rejection , no higher highs yet, just clean price action reading.

From here, market looks range-bound for the week.

For bullish continuation, we need a break above 79.5k. That’s the level to flip structure.

Here's my plan from here:

If we get 79k again it will be potential short back to 73–74k
73–74k becomes the next buy zone for continuation higher and on those levels i have opened positions on nexо, just in case to play the range until structure shifts.

Meanwhile we can also do Mon low to Mon highs with less margin size if market allows. Not a financial advice, jusy sharing my trades.

BTC has been showing some solid strength around the $78k level, and I’m expecting price to rise from here. My primary target is $78,581, but if we can keep this momentum going, I wouldn't be surprised to see a run toward $78,846 or even $79,472.

Michael Saylor is hints at buying more Bitcoin on Twitter.

If you’re looking for an entry, I’m personally watching for a little pullback into the $77,885 to $78,210 zone. This was a recent breakout area with some fair value gaps (FVG), so seeing a bullish confirmation there like a pin bar or an engulfing candle would be the ideal trigger to jump in.

My plan is to take some profit at $78,581, pull some more at $78,846, and leave a runner for $79,472 if we close above that first target with some real conviction.

On the flip side, we have to stay objective. If price loses $77,770 and closes below $77,140, my bias flips short immediately. In that case, I’d be looking for a move back down toward $76,200. I’ve even got some limit orders sitting in on nexо that demand zone just in case we get a quick wick down before the stock market open.

Just a reminder that this isn't investment advice, just my personal read on the chart.

Are you guys positioned for the break above $79k or are you playing the pullback?