If you’re not on X, consider yourself lucky or intelligent. To be fair, I can say the same thing about StockTwits.

I’m here and on both and I’m seeing things that are starting to freak me out.

Every biotech stock with a great deal of potential begins to generate some fanboys. The binary plays, the catalysts, the FDA approvals, the M&A, etc. is all adrenaline pumping stuff and, if you’re truly lucky, your wallet pumps as well.

What you’re missing by not being on X is what appears to be a “negative astroturfing” campaign against SLS.

Without so much as a logical argument, multiple accounts, some who have otherwise been very rational in their daily approach to biotech, are trashing SLS and the REGAL trial.

Their arguments are inane. The fact that the 80th event hasn’t occurred is viewed as a scam. If the CEO mentions the 80th event hasn’t occurred in the last quarterly update but only says “…we await the 80th event…” in the most recent quarterly call, they seize on it as some shred of evidence that there is a scam going on. (Which I know makes zero sense but that was the entire argument.)

The “best” argument they have is the one that I’ll turn against them: the pro-SLS noise is the proof that it’s a rug pull.

Sad when hype is their best argument…

So, allow me to turn it around.

The fact that they are downright ugly and negative about the potential of GPS is, in itself, a Buy signal.

Huh?

Think of it from a higher level:

1. They don’t care that GPS may work and save lives.
2. They aren’t white knights trying to save naive biotech investors from taking on too much risk.

They are putting their names - which in many instances have built a reputation in biotech - online where things are permanent as trashing the company, the drug and the investors.

Even if they wind up deleting everything, they will be remembered as having been obnoxious and crass about a drug trial.

And what’s their upside if it’s not altruistic?

Maybe chest thumping bragging rights if the trial fails. But they have no idea whether it will fail or not and it’s a biotech binary so who cares that they were right about a phase III trial failure? I could predict that every time and claim an 88% success rate.

Nope. I don’t think that’s it.

Which leaves two scenarios.

1. They’re paid
2. They’re angry that they’re not paid

Why would anyone pay five or six of the biggest biotech influencers on X to trash SLS and GPS and those hopeful hypers on a daily basis?

I’m interested in your answer and if you want to say some shorting entity is working overtime to drive SLS down, fine but it’s very tin foil hat without more details.

If they’re angry that they’re not getting paid, it tells you something very sinister about the industry as a whole. If I’m the CEO of a clinical pharma co and I’m desperate to avoid trashing the stock with another dilution round, is it possible I might slide some cash to an influencer to pump my ticker?

Well, that would be illegal. But imagine if that were the norm and the X biotech bros are bitter that they can’t wet their beak in the SLS pond.

They just might get ugly.

I’m going to take a position on SLS here before the 80th event because something stinks. If you think I’m exaggerating, do the following:

Hold your nose, go on X and type $SLS into the search bar and choose Latest.

You won’t believe the amount of endless negative hype pouring out when all these influencers had to do was ignore the hype or block the term REGAL from their X feed.

I’m not suggesting you invest in SLS.

I am asking you to tell me why the bio-bros are working so hard to counter the SLS hype and the pending end of the REGAL trial.

It doesn’t make sense unless there’s something nasty going on that isn’t obvious.

I've done really, really well over the past year. I'm sliding out of some things I own and freeing up cash and moving some major bets I made into "house money" mode.

And now, I want to put my cash to work but I need to choose a strategy.

I don't think I can duplicate my concentrated two stocks approach because I don't see anything out there that looks like what those did.

So, I can go backwards or forward.

Backwards for me is primarily ETFs. I get a healthy position in a steady mover and satellite a few that I think can help me outperform.

Forwards for me is where I'm hitting a wall.

I started playing around in biotech and realized that I'm not able to consistently play at that level.

I started looking at warrants. I've typically avoided leverage but warrants seem to give me a shot at major upside if I play them correctly.

I started looking at Price + Volume where I took the top movers from the previous week, filtered them by which had a 5 day moving average substantially above their 20day moving average.

Then, I realized that I could run the same filters (price plus volume) against much smaller companies (sub $5B market cap) but these feel like really nothing more than momentum plays.

ETF and chill

Biotech

Warrants

Major Momentum

Small Cap Momentum

I'll place small bets on all of these and see which one brings me the most joy.

Hey, do you have a full list of all the active spac warrants?

I thought I put together a really substantial list and now I'm seeing warrants that weren't on the list.

My response to the lack of institutional investors.

Compiled 11 August 2026. Figures are as of the Q1 2026 10-Q (period ended 31 March 2026) unless noted.

1. Corporate Entities

AirJoule Technologies Corporation (Nasdaq: AIRJ)

The listed parent. HQ Ronan, Montana. Holds the technology platform and its interests in two joint ventures. Note what it is not: it does not itself manufacture or sell the systems at scale — the JV does.

Montana Technologies Corporation

Former name of AIRJ, and the operating predecessor that developed the core technology. Still appears in older filings, transcripts and analyst notes; treat as the same company.

XPDB — Power & Digital Infrastructure Acquisition II Corp

The SPAC that took Montana Technologies public in March 2024. Source of the warrant, earnout and vesting-share structures that still sit on the cap table.

AirJoule LLC — "the JV"

The 50/50 joint venture with GE Vernova. Manufacturing at Newark, Delaware. Holds rights for the Americas, Africa and Australia. This is where the actual product business lives. AIRJ accounts for it under the equity method, so JV revenue does not appear in AIRJ's revenue line — only AIRJ's share of JV net income or loss. President: Bryan Barton.

CAMT Climate Solutions Ltd.

The 50/50 joint venture with CATL parties holding exclusive rights to Europe and Asia. Per the FY2025 10-K it has never been funded by either party, received no contributed assets, and has never had a business plan or operating budget adopted by its board. Functionally dormant — but it still holds the rights, which is a real constraint on monetizing those territories.

2. Partners

GE Vernova

50% JV partner. Contributed the proprietary sorbent materials and coating process; AIRJ contributed the process and system architecture. Operates the Advanced Research Center / Frontier Campus at Niskayuna, NY, where a Core system was deployed 28 July 2026. The most important counterparty in the structure.

Carrier Global Corporation

HVAC partner under a binding term sheet dated January 2024 — not yet a definitive agreement. Contemplates exclusive commercialization in North and South America for HVAC applications, with AIRJ/the JV supplying components. This is the channel that would justify the top of any valuation range, and it has been quiet.

BASF

Production-scale supplier of the sorbent material.

CATL (Contemporary Amperex Technology)

Counterparty to the CAMT joint venture. Battery manufacturer; the relationship has not progressed.

TenX Investment

UAE-based. Exclusive distributor to market, sell and support AirJoule water and industrial dehumidification systems across six Middle East countries. Followed a Dubai demonstration running roughly February–December 2025. Initial commercial deployments targeted for late 2026.

Kubota Corporation

Japanese industrial and agricultural equipment maker. Exclusive sales partnership for water-constrained US residential development, announced 21 July 2026. Initial scope: two Core systems, deployments in Corpus Christi, TX and Irvine, CA, targeted Q3 2026.

Net Zero Innovation Hub for Data Centers

European (Denmark-based) collaboration. Destination for the first Prime system, to demonstrate integration into a data center environment. A demonstration placement, not a revenue install.

U.S. Army ERDC (Engineer Research and Development Center)

Counterparty to a Cooperative Research and Development Agreement (CRADA) covering military water generation.

Arizona State University

Conducting an independent third-party evaluation of system performance under Phoenix (hot, dry) conditions. Relevant because it is the only non-company performance validation in the pipeline.

B. Riley

Provider of the $30M equity line of credit (ELOC).

H.C. Wainwright / Amit Dayal

Covering analyst. Buy rating, $12 price target as of June 2026.

3. Products

AirJoule®

The platform and trademark, not a single product. Covers the sorption cycle, the sorbent system and the resulting product family.

AirJoule Core (formerly the A250)

The smaller unit, roughly 250 litres/day. Serves both dehumidification and water generation. Targeted for initial commercial availability late 2026, gated on third-party certification. This is the near-term commercial product and the one that carries the 2027 revenue ramp.

AirJoule Prime (formerly the A1000)

The large industrial system. Rated up to 2,000 litres/day (~530 US gallons). Commissioned May 2026 at Newark; unveiled publicly 26 June 2026; in operation and optimisation since. Note the earlier A1000 framing was 1,000–3,000 L/day — the spec narrowed as the product got real.

A250 / A1000

Legacy product designations. Map to Core and Prime respectively. Still appear in pre-2026 materials.

⚠ Form factor: Prime is widely described as roughly a 20-ft container package. This is not a company-stated specification in any filing or release I could find.

4. Technical Terms

Sorbent / sorption

The material that adsorbs water vapour directly from air. Distinguishes this approach from condensation-based (chiller) atmospheric water generation, which must cool air below dew point.

MOF (metal-organic framework)

The class of engineered porous material used as the sorbent. High surface area per unit mass; the reason the cycle works at low temperature.

Thermal-pressure swing / temperature-vacuum swing

The operating cycle: adsorb water vapour at ambient conditions, then desorb it under vacuum using low-grade heat, then condense. The vacuum is what allows desorption at low temperature — this is the technical crux of the whole thesis.

Low-grade (low-temperature) waste heat

Heat below roughly 100°C that industrial processes and data centres reject as a matter of course and that is too low-quality to run a turbine or a conventional process. AirJoule's claim is that it can monetise this otherwise-worthless stream.

Wh/L — watt-hours per litre

The efficiency metric. Company targets well under 200 Wh/L when running on waste heat; ~160 Wh/L cited for prototype performance. Compare to conventional AWG (several hundred to over 1,000 Wh/L) and to desalination (much lower, but requires a coastline and a plant).

Atmospheric Water Generation (AWG)

The product category. Historically a niche of small, inefficient condensation units — hence the credibility problem AIRJ has to overcome with buyers.

Latent vs. sensible load

HVAC terms. Sensible = temperature; latent = moisture. Conventional air conditioning removes moisture as a wasteful by-product of overcooling. AirJoule attacks the latent load directly, which is where the claimed HVAC energy saving comes from.

Distilled water

Prime and Core output. Usable directly in industrial applications; requires remineralisation for potable use. Marketed as PFAS-free.

5. Commercial & Deal Terms

WPA — Water Purchase Agreement

The recurring-revenue model. AIRJ or the JV owns and operates the systems on the customer's site and sells water on a volumetric basis. Structurally analogous to a PPA (power purchase agreement) in energy. This model is what would justify an infrastructure multiple rather than an equipment multiple — and also what consumes the most capital.

Nexus / the Hubbard, Texas campus

A proposed 600MW natural-gas-powered data centre campus in Hubbard, Texas that intends to use AirJoule water harvesting. A Water Purchase Agreement has been anticipated but ⚠ verify whether it has been signed as a definitive agreement and confirm the exact counterparty name before citing it.

$450B TAM

Management's stated total addressable market. Dominated by the HVAC component (on the order of $350B), with roughly $60B distributed water, $20B data centre, $20B advanced manufacturing. This is end-market spending, not AIRJ-addressable revenue — and the Europe/Asia portion sits inside dormant CAMT.

Production line

The unit of manufacturing scale. Load-bearing because AIRJ's own Monte Carlo valuation of the Earnout Shares assumes $50.0M of annualised EBITDA per production line, with lines commissioned over a five-year period. ⚠ Open question: whether that $50M is measured at the JV level or the parent level. At the JV level it halves on the way to AIRJ. This single definition swings a mature-success valuation roughly 2×; it should be resolvable from the merger agreement's earnout schedule.

GE Match Date

The point at which GE Vernova begins matching capital contributions to the JV. Until then AIRJ funds and receives a distribution preference on post-close contributions plus a 9.5% preferred return. Reaching this date would be the single largest structural de-risking event available.

Capital contribution commitment

AIRJ's remaining obligation to fund the JV: $67.3M as of 31 March 2026, out of up to $90M post-closing. Against $31.1M of cash at the same date. This is the arithmetic behind any dilution thesis.

Equity method

The accounting treatment for the 50% JV stake. Consequence: AIRJ reports no JV revenue, only a share of JV net loss, and the JV's balance sheet does not consolidate. Anyone modelling "AirJoule revenue" needs to be explicit about which entity they mean.

6. Cap Table Instruments

Instrument	Count	Terms
Common shares outstanding	~72.4M	68,472,740 at 1 May 2026, plus the June registered direct
Public Warrants (AIRJW)	12,657,596	$11.50 strike
Private Placement Warrants	8,900,000	$11.50 strike
Subject Vesting Shares	1,380,736	Vest at $12.00 and $14.00 share price thresholds
Earnout Shares	1,395,889	Vest on EBITDA milestones
Options	2,207,602
RSUs	1,290,909

Fully diluted ≈ 100M shares. The trap: the Subject Vesting and Earnout Shares vest in exactly the success scenario being modelled. You cannot hold the count at 72.4M and assume the outcome that triggers issuance.

ELOC — equity line of credit

$30M facility with B. Riley. A quiet dilution channel; drawdowns appear in the filings rather than in a press release.

Registered direct offering

The May/June 2026 raise: 3,659,000 shares for $15M gross.

True Up Shares

A SPAC-era share liability carried at fair value. Legacy item.

7. Accounting & Risk Terms

IPR&D — in-process research and development

The largest asset on the JV balance sheet: $503.1M after impairment. An intangible established at the 2024 SPAC-era valuation, not a cash-generating asset.

Q1 2026 impairments

The JV recorded $110.3M of IPR&D impairment and $76.1M of goodwill impairment, triggered by a sustained decline in AIRJ's stock price. Note the circularity: the JV's carrying value is being marked to the parent's quote. Also note GAAP permits no reversal — the stock's recovery buys none of it back. Next scheduled test is Q4.

Material weakness

Management concluded disclosure controls were not effective as of 31 March 2026, relating to accounting for complex non-routine transactions, surfaced by an out-of-period error on a $5M GE contribution. Relevant to how much weight any company-supplied figure carries.

8. Places

Place	What it is
Ronan, Montana	Corporate HQ
Newark, Delaware	JV manufacturing facility; where Prime was built and commissioned
Niskayuna, New York	GE Vernova Advanced Research Center / Frontier Campus; Core deployed July 2026
Hubbard, Texas	Proposed 600MW data centre campus
Corpus Christi, TX & Irvine, CA	Kubota residential deployments
Dubai, UAE	TenX demonstration site, 2025

9. People

Bryan Barton — Chief Commercialization Officer of AirJoule Technologies and President of the GE Vernova joint venture. The dual role means he speaks for both entities, which is worth remembering when parsing his statements about "we."

Tom Divine — VP, Investor Relations and Finance. The IR contact.

10. The Four Distinctions Worth Keeping Straight

1. AIRJ vs. AirJoule LLC. Revenue, EBITDA and production lines mostly belong to the JV. AIRJ owns half.
2. Core vs. Prime. Core is the near-term revenue product and the dehumidification play. Prime is the industrial water product and the data-centre story. They have different customers, different timelines and different certification paths.
3. Water production vs. cooling. Prime sells water independence — the value scales with the customer's water constraint and permitting risk, not their power bill. Cooling and energy savings are Core's territory.
4. TAM vs. addressable revenue. $450B is end-market spending, mostly HVAC, in territories partly locked inside a dormant JV, reachable through a partner (Carrier) that has not signed a definitive agreement.

Not sure how to attend this since I don't have a Needham salesperson and am not an institutional investor...

AirJoule will be presenting at Needham the day before announcing quarterly numbers.

Needham’s Inaugural Virtual AI Infrastructure 1×1 Conference will take place on August 12, 2026. Needham will be hosting virtual 1×1 meetings with company reps from the leading names in High Performance Computing (HPC)/AI & Powered Infrastructure.

Companies will be joining us from Co-location data centers specifically geared for AI workloads, Cloud providers within Training & Inference, and Powered Infrastructure Developers. For additional information and/or to register, please contact your Needham Sales Representative.

HUGE Ups to anyone that can get us access.

So, I've got warrant fever off the spacs and I'm holding seven or so.

Anyone got a top five conviction list?

I have two I can't get rid of right now: DRTSW and AIRJW.

Looking for suggestions for another 3 to 5.

Thanks!

I've wanted a dual listing for DRTS for a long time.

I want to explain why so that you can understand why I think this is a brilliant move.

Let's get into it:

The TASE listing is likely a modest-to-material positive for DRTS, but it does not automatically increase Alpha Tau’s market capitalization. The strongest potential benefit is index inclusion: if Alpha Tau qualifies for the TA-90/TA-125 complex, Israeli index funds could be forced to buy a meaningful quantity of shares.

The listing itself, however, does not create value in the way an FDA approval, successful pivotal trial, reimbursement decision, or commercial agreement would.

The essential mechanics

Assuming Alpha Tau uses the standard dual-listing framework:

• DRTS remains listed on Nasdaq.
• The TASE security represents the same Alpha Tau ordinary shares.
• Alpha Tau is not creating a second pool of equity.
• Shares should be transferable or arbitrageable between the two markets.
• The TASE price will be quoted in shekels but should track the Nasdaq price after adjusting for USD/ILS.
• There is still only one global market capitalization.

At the current Nasdaq price of approximately $13.14, market-data services show Alpha Tau’s broader share-count definitions and report market cap close to $1.1–$1.2 billion.

A dual listing does not double that figure:

Market cap=total shares outstanding×one economically unified share price

If TASE demand pushes DRTS up 10%, market capitalization rises approximately 10%. But it rises because the shares were repriced—not because the company is now displayed on two exchanges.

Potential index inclusion is the biggest prize

Given Alpha Tau’s size, Israeli incorporation, Israeli headquarters and biotechnology classification, it may be large enough for consideration for:

• TA-90
• TA-125
• TA-Biomed
• Possibly one or more technology/innovation indices

The exact eligibility and entry date will depend on TASE rules concerning free float, public holdings, liquidity, ranking dates and index review schedules. It should not be assumed that listing produces immediate inclusion.

This matters because TASE itself recently estimated that companies eligible for the TA-90 can encounter passive demand averaging roughly 12%, with a 13% median. That is unusually significant relative to Alpha Tau’s limited freely trading supply.

That figure should be treated as a general TASE estimate, not a forecast that 12% of DRTS will necessarily be purchased. Nevertheless, it identifies the principal reason this listing could matter.

The pros

1. A substantially larger natural investor base

Many Israeli mutual funds, pension funds, provident funds, insurance companies and retail accounts find it easier—or are only permitted—to buy TASE-listed securities.

Although sophisticated Israeli institutions can buy DRTS on Nasdaq, many smaller funds and individual investors do not. The listing removes currency-conversion, custody and foreign-trading friction.

2. Potential forced index buying

Index inclusion would create buyers that are indifferent to valuation. They buy because Alpha Tau enters an index.

For a stock with limited effective float, even moderate index demand could have a disproportionate price impact.

3. Alpha Tau is unusually well suited to Israeli home-market demand

This is not an obscure foreign company attempting to obtain a secondary listing. Alpha Tau is:

• Israeli-founded and Israeli-headquartered.
• Based on technology developed at Tel Aviv University.
• Employing a significant Israeli scientific and operational workforce.
• Treating patients at Israeli institutions.
• A visible Israeli medical-technology success story.

That creates a potentially powerful home-market preference.

4. More institutional awareness

The listing puts Alpha Tau directly in front of Israeli portfolio managers who follow Israeli biotechnology, medical devices and innovation indices.

It could lead to:

• Additional institutional meetings.
• Hebrew-language research coverage.
• More local financial-media coverage.
• Greater participation in Israeli investor conferences.
• More consistent investor-relations activity.

5. Better liquidity

Trading can occur through two exchange order books. TASE reported that, in early 2025, approximately 32% of combined trading in dual-listed companies occurred on TASE, demonstrating that the local venue can become economically relevant rather than merely decorative.

More liquidity generally means:

• Larger positions can be accumulated or sold.
• Lower effective bid/ask spreads.
• Less dependence on a small number of Nasdaq market makers.
• Potentially reduced volatility from individual orders.

For Alpha Tau, whose institutional ownership and genuine trading float have historically been limited, this could be meaningful.

6. Longer price-discovery window

Material developments occurring during Israeli or European business hours can be reflected on TASE before Nasdaq opens.

This is especially relevant for Alpha Tau because many clinical sites, manufacturing activities, regulatory interactions and corporate developments originate outside the United States.

7. Arbitrage should keep the markets connected

If DRTS closes at $13.00 on Nasdaq and trades at a materially different currency-adjusted price in Tel Aviv, professional traders can buy on the cheaper venue and sell on the more expensive one.

That should:

• Prevent persistent large pricing discrepancies.
• Incorporate information more rapidly.
• Increase market-making participation.
• Improve overall price discovery.

8. Easier employee participation

Israeli employees, consultants, scientists and directors may find it more convenient to hold or sell Alpha Tau shares through Israeli brokerage and custody systems.

That makes equity compensation more tangible to the company’s domestic workforce.

9. More financing alternatives

Once listed, Alpha Tau could potentially raise money from Israeli investors, conduct a rights offering, place shares with local institutions or access other TASE capital-market structures.

That could strengthen its negotiating position when raising future commercialization capital.

Importantly, the listing itself does not raise money. A subsequent offering would be a separate event.

10. Increased strategic visibility

A prominent TASE valuation may enhance Alpha Tau’s profile with:

• Israeli hospitals.
• Government entities.
• Potential commercial partners.
• Medical-device companies.
• Pharmaceutical companies.
• Israeli and international strategic investors.

This is a secondary benefit, but Alpha Tau is moving toward commercialization and greater institutional visibility now has more value than it did during early development.

11. Potential recognition as a major Israeli biotechnology company

At roughly $1 billion or more in equity value, Alpha Tau would be one of the larger publicly traded Israeli development-stage medical-technology companies. Its relative prominence on TASE would be much greater than its prominence among thousands of Nasdaq companies.

That relative visibility can affect investor attention and valuation.

12. Nasdaq remains the primary international venue

Alpha Tau gets local access without surrendering:

• Nasdaq visibility.
• U.S. institutional access.
• U.S. analyst coverage.
• SEC reporting.
• U.S. options and warrants infrastructure.
• A U.S.-recognized acquisition currency.

That makes the risk/reward much better than abandoning Nasdaq for TASE.

13. Possible reduction in the “Israeli small-cap discount”

Some international investors treat DRTS as a lightly traded foreign small-cap. A meaningful domestic market, stronger liquidity and index membership could make the company appear more institutionally established.

14. Useful timing

The listing is arriving after Alpha Tau has achieved much greater investor recognition, reached approximately a billion-dollar valuation and produced multiple clinical and strategic developments. It is therefore entering TASE as a substantial company rather than as a struggling microcap seeking attention.

You’re not in this because it’s risk free. You’re likely in this because it’s a clean water play or an AI datacenter play.

But lets talk about the risk.

This tiny company has shown it can play with the big boys: Kubota, GEV, Carrier.

They’ve shown that there’s demand in the market this week and will have recurring revenue off the upcoming Hubbard deal with Nexus.

I love the ownership that the C suite has because it typically means our interests are aligned.

So what’s the concern? It smells like cool fresh water on a hot day.

The raise. The dilution that raise will cause. AIRJ is going to need more money than they have and the best time to raise money is when your stock is high.

Earnings are on August 12th. They did a $20M raise in January and a $15M direct in May. Outstanding shares are up 21% for the year.

And management will tell you they’re funded through the end of 2027.

The problem is that commercialization ramp, starting now, will cost money. A lot of money. And so a raise will be almost a certainty. So, dilution is coming.

But here’s the good news. Dilution with the stock at $6 is a world of difference from when they raised in the $3s.

Everything is going AIRJ’s way right now. They will need a pre-commercialization war chest. Keep an eye out for how much they raise, at what price and how much shareholders get diluted - including the C Suite who will get diluted along with the rest of us.

We are on the verge of breaking out of recent highs.

Tell me you’re still in this.

If you are shorting DRTS, this is not financial advice but…

This may be a very, very good time to cover your shorts.

We are waiting for a sixth (6!) IDE for the combination of Alpha DaRTs and Keytruda.

We are waiting for FDA approval on skin cancer.

We are waiting on the MRI results from those who have undergone treatment for recurring GBM.

Here’s some transparent evidence: we have the fifth patient in the DRTS Discord group. Swing by and say hello. Young guy with a family and those of us who pray are begging for a Complete Recovery (CR.) Those of us that are not particularly spiritual but are long DRTS are also hoping for a CR even if just for financial reasons.

Two things to note: if we know about the fifth, and his wife told us the fourth case was two weeks earlier, then we are within days, not weeks, of hearing results from at least one or two of them.

Add to that the following: once Arizona and New York got approved, there was no reason to go slowly. Grab any one of the better candidates and potentially save their lives ASAP.

What this means is that the 10 rGBM cases approved across Ohio, Arizona and New York could all be wrapped up within three months. Two months to get the job done and a month to see the MRI.

What transparent evidence do we have that Alpha Tau is extremely bullish on the rGBM results? They’re slow rolling skin cancer right now. To be more generous, they’re head’s down on rGBM (terrible pun.)

Why would they do that when they have already completed the pivot trial for skin?

Because they’re brilliant. They don’t want to negotiate reimbursement for skin cancer treatment before rGBM. This is the commercial side of platform reimbursement - you lead with your best and discount down. Never come with a skin cancer platform and then beg for extra dimes on the pancreatic or GBM cancers.

So, we can see with our own eyes that the rGBM cases are happening in multiple locations to move things forward faster. One or two more CR’s and the FDA will fast track the remainder because there us no option.

The commercial reality is that the insurance companies will salivate at the thought of a local rGBM treatment with no side effects and no hospital stay and no on-going, recurring dosage.

Any day now we will start to see great things happening. Literally any day. And it’s a good day to be long DRTS.

Rather than AI edit this, I'm going stream of consciousness and I'll try to structure this somewhat.

If you're an investor, you've seen the news. Citadel tells everyone the interest rates are going to go up, and a 25 year old hot shot winds up getting wiped out to the tune of multi-multi-billions of dollars.

South Korea was on fire for so long and then it turned out they were all degenerate gamblers leveraging 2x and 3x before getting wiped out the moment it turned around.

The market is moving to 23 hours a day, I've been told, because too much of the market moves are taking place after the market is closed.

I could go on and on and on and I'm not crying in the casino. I got out before the AI plunge, or the Korea plunge or any of the other plunges.

But here's where I think I'm getting worn out. There is trading and there is investing. Trading gives people the illusion that they have a chance of winning consistently in the casino. And perhaps some do. Most likely, those that are winning are trying to sell you a course. Investing is, I believe, where you rise above it, put your money into solid compounders and step outside of the trading floor. Can your investments be messed with? Sure. But over time, gold and stocks are likely to keep moving up and to the right. Just really, really slowly compared to the fever pitch and dopamine spike that comes from going long on a penny stock that has a massive short position sitting on it.

Here's the problem, I think. If you want to get wealthy, slowly compounding likely doesn't get the job done. Diversification means you always have some dogs holding back your ponies. I'm getting older and my chance to make some big moves appears to be closing quickly. I don't have a lot of compounding time ahead of me. Wish I had started investing (investing, not trading) seriously in my 20's. Or 30's. Or 40's, really. My focus was never on investing. It was always on earning.

Not sure I've added anything other than a weekend grimace at the state of the markets. I don't like market manipulation. I don't like leverage. I don't like after hours trades that move the market more than during trading hours. I don't like naked shorts. I don't like a lot of things about the market, I guess.

With permission from Pristine (hopefully) I present to you the initial very rough draft of the global total addressable market (TAM) for Alpha Tau Medical.

There are assumptions: Total cancer cases in 2026 vs. 2050. Total number of solid tumors.

What you can choose: can Alpha Tau address 5%, 10% or 15% of those solid tumors?

What will the reimbursement rate be in the US? What about Europe? What about Japan?

As you make changes to the expected reimbursement rates, you'll see the TAM value go up or down.

https://emotional-breath-drts2026to2050tam.netlify.app/

If you haven't read Part I (which wasn't supposed to be Part I but life happens) then you really should read part I which explains what percentages of cancer are solid vs. liquid tumors and which are and are not treatable by Alpha DaRTs. Everything below will presuppose that you read that post to the point of having it memorized.

The latest IARC data estimate 20.64M new global cancer cases in 2024 and the number isn't going down. IARC projects total cancer incidence to reach 34.4M annually by 2050. The liquid cancers (Leukemia, Lymphoma and Myeloma) total approximately 1.34M which leaves 19.30 million solid cancers - or 93.5% of all cancers.

How much of that is defensibly a target for Alpha DaRTs? Let's go overly conservative and then sanely conservative.

(insane) Percentage of all cancers: 5%

Annual global candidates: 1.03M

2050 candidates: 1.72M

(sane) Percentage of all cancers: 10%

Annual global candidates: 2.06M

2050 candidates: 3.44M

What's that worth?

There is no agreed upon number per treatment so we're going to get insanely conservative and then sanely (is that a word?) conservative on the assumed revenue per patient.

$20,000 per patient at 5% TAM: $20.6B

$20,000 per patient at 10% TAM: $41.3B

$30,000 per patient at 5% TAM: $31B

$30,000 per patient at 10% TAM: $61.9B

Let's see how our AI bot spins this:

Alpha DaRT's TAM is not 91% of cancers. A more defensible range is roughly 5%-15% with 10% as a base case. Applied to the latest global cancer burden, that represents approximately 1–3 million potentially treatable patients annually, with a midpoint near 2 million. At a hypothetical $20,000 per treatment, that would be a theoretical global TAM of about $41 billion—but that is a ceiling, not a revenue forecast.

Thanks AI bot. But I'm not satisfied. I'll take the 10% base case against all cancers and I'll even agree with the number of total patients. But I'm not at all convinced that rGBM is going to yield $20k. No way. So, I'm going to go off on my own math here and project far closer to $100k with global reimbursement lowering the revenue per patient on rGBM to $85k per patient and pancreatic to $50k per patient. The skin and the prostate and the vulvar and head & neck can weigh on the average but now we have to do some serious math.

What we find is that of the cancers, 7% are rGBM, 22% are pancreatic and 70% are "other" within the fixed 10% TAM population. That changes things quite a bit if you feel as strongly as I do that Alpha Tau isn't going to negotiate a $20k per patient reimbursement from rGBM. They're not running a charity and the procedure isn't as simple as a topical by any stretch of the imagination.

But, here's where reality kicks in... Once oncologists are familiar with Alpha DaRTs for rGBM, they're almost certainly going to use it for all brain cancers. That's a big jump in total cases. But let's offset that by the reality that there isn't anyone in Africa paying north of $10k for any treatment. What I want to see is how the numbers change once we realize that the price per patient can only hold up in the US, western Europe, Singapore, Australia, Japan and South Korea.

Stay tuned for more slicing and dicing to get to some more accurate numbers in Part III of this never ending quest for TAM.