u/ExpeditionZero

Hello all,

I've decided to start posting my weekly recaps here as well as on the r/Marathon mega-thread as recent changes there has made posting more difficult (my last steam numbers being automodded) and traffic seems to have fallen off.

Edit: lol - yep , this post in the mega-thread got auto-modded immediately. I guess they are working on approving posts basis now.

Week-on-Week update for Fri/Sat (Sat 03:00 UTC).
Back to a week-on-week drop of approx 20% at 8100 players, and five hundred down on yesterdays more positive peak (8630). There has to be a July 4th effect going on today though as the US peak fell below EU which is not normally the case for a Fri/Sat.

Much of the week was bouncing between peaks of 7.5k and 8.5k, but the weekend looks like it will settle at about 8k. This is really not a good number and we are now below 10% of the launch peak just 4 months ago. With such a large week-on-week drop it would appear unlikely that we've reached the floor yet, but one has to wonder just how much lower will it go.

Seems like Vault Breakers can't come soon enough, but its almost 3 weeks off still, and I'm unsure just how many players its going to be able to claw back.

Sat	Release	Peak	Loss	Drop	Absolute	Relative	DAU
03/06	S2 launch	40686	29,242	46.1%	33.1%	255.5%	329,346
06/06	S2	32220	-20,776	36.5%	-23.5%	181.5%	253,054
13/06	D2 / F2P	14891	-17,329	16.9%	-19.6%	-53.8%	116,953
20/06	1.1.0.2 CARRI	11948	-2,943	13.5%	-3.3%	-19.8%	93,839
27/06		10281	-1,667	11.6%	-1.9%	-14.0%	80,746
04/07		8100	-2,181	9.2%	-2.5%	-21.2%	63,617

NB - Why do I post this? I like numbers, but more importantly I want to keep a record of the numbers and my thoughts when major events occur so I can look back and remind myself of exactly what I was thinking at the time. This will allow some reflection and hopefully guide any future predictions, or at least trends with regards to similar games.

NB - Season 1 results can be found in this comment.

NB - Daily Users (active) is speculative as I've tied them to the same relative drops that peak player counts follow. The original numbers (478k launch and 345k circa 28th March) come from Paul Tassi article.

With the Mega-Thread being disabled for 24 hrs, figured i'd come here and have a little fun with posting my unscientific prediction numbers for the next month. Its nothing special, just a simple curve fitting from early season 1 numbers, but has been surprisingly accurate, mostly due to Marathons uncanny ability to have near 20% week-on-week drops.

Initially I felt the prediction needed to have a floor applied, but i've removed it here, because I have no idea what that value might be any more. I also suspect a bounce when Vault Breakers update gets released, though I'm not very confident it will add players, just maybe stop the 20% drops.

Honestly I'd be surprised if it keeps dropping like this, so don't take this as anything more than a bit of wildly inaccurate fun, but then Marathon player counts continue to surprise me every week.

Sat	Release	Peak	Loss	Drop	Absolute	Relative	DAU
03/06	S2 US Peak	40686	29,242	46.1%	-33.1%	255.5%	319,545
06/06	Season 2	32220	20,776	36.5%	-23.5%	181.5%	253,054
10/06	Destiny 2	19781	-20,905	22.4%	23.7%	-51.4%	155,359
13/06	D2 / F2P	14891	-17,329	16.9%	19.6%	-53.8%	116,953
20/06	1.1.0.2 CARRI	11948	-2,943	13.5%	3.3%	-19.8%	93,839
27/06		10281	-1,667	11.6%	1.9%	-14.0%	80,746
04/07	Prediction	8030	-2,251	9.1%	2.5%	-21.9%	63,067
11/07	Prediction	6654	-1,376	7.5%	1.6%	-17.1%	52,264
18/07	Prediction	5515	-1,140	6.2%	1.3%	-17.1%	43,311
25/07	Prediction	4570	-945	5.2%	1.1%	-17.1%	35,892
01/08	Prediction	3787	-783	4.3%	0.9%	-17.1%	29,743