EDIT: The mock draft tool is live! Didn't expect to have it ready this fast, but here it is: https://www.hivefantasy.com/tools/mock-draft

Free, no account needed. Pick your draft slot or set your exact picks if you've made trades, choose linear, snake, or 3rd-round reversal, and the CPU drafts around you. Every pick shows the hit rate for that exact slot. Crowd-sourced ADP from everyone's mocks is the next thing we're building. Let me know about any bugs!

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Hey guys! My co-host and I run a small fantasy football YouTube channel (and website) focused on analytics and scouting. We've been following most of the 2027 class since they were in high school, and four weeks into the college season felt like the right time to update our board.

In the video (linked above), we re-draft Round 1 of the 2027 superflex rookie class, go through the honorable mentions that just missed, and then compare everything to our preseason mock to show who's risen and who's fallen since then.

Below is our updated projected ADP through three rounds, our 12-year superflex rookie hit rate study (I think it changes how you should value each of these pick ranges), and a few of the players we spent the most time on.

Our projected 2027 superflex rookie ADP (through CFB Week 4):
This is where we think these guys would go in a superflex rookie draft right now, not necessarily where we'd take them. (Spoiler: in a few spots, we didn't.) To be upfront, this is mostly my educated guess for now. More on how we're fixing that at the bottom.

Round 1
1.01 Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State
1.02 Jadan Baugh, RB, Florida
1.03 Charlie Becker, WR, Indiana
1.04 Darian Mensah, QB, Miami
1.05 Kewan Lacy, RB, Ole Miss
1.06 Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss
1.07 Drew Mestemaker†, QB, Oklahoma State
1.08 Ryan Williams, WR, Alabama
1.09 Nate Frazier, RB, Georgia
1.10 Julian Sayin†, QB, Ohio State
1.11 Jamari Johnson, TE, Oregon
1.12 Arch Manning, QB, Texas

Round 2
2.01 KJ Duff, WR, Rutgers
2.02 Dante Moore, QB, Oregon
2.03 Cam Coleman, WR, Texas
2.04 Nick Marsh, WR, Indiana
2.05 Trey'Dez Green, TE, LSU
2.06 Justice Haynes, RB, Georgia Tech
2.07 Wyatt Young, WR, Oklahoma State
2.08 CJ Carr†, QB, Notre Dame
2.09 Ryan Wingo, WR, Texas
2.10 Deuce Alexander, WR, Ole Miss
2.11 Luke Reynolds, TE, Virginia Tech
2.12 Reed Harris, WR, Arizona State

Round 3
3.01 Mark Fletcher Jr., RB, Miami
3.02 Jayden Maiava, QB, USC
3.03 Hollywood Smothers, RB, Texas
3.04 LJ Martin, RB, BYU
3.05 Amare Thomas, WR, Houston
3.06 Mario Craver, WR, Texas A&M
3.07 Bryant Wesco Jr., WR, Clemson
3.08 Antwan Raymond, RB, Rutgers
3.09 Wayshawn Parker, RB, Utah
3.10 T.J. Moore, WR, Clemson
3.11 Fluff Bothwell, RB, Mississippi State
3.12 Junior Sherrill, WR, Vanderbilt

† Possible 2028 declare. Worth pricing that in before you spend a first on Mestemaker or Sayin.

The hit rate study
Some of you may remember from past posts, but a quick refresher on methodology: We tracked superflex rookie ADP for every class going back to 2014 and looked at how often players drafted in each pick range turned into actual fantasy starters.

Hit season: a Top 12 QB/TE, Top 15 RB, or Top 24 WR finish (full PPR).

We measured 1+, 2+, and 3+ hit seasons. 1+ runs through the 2025 class, 2+ through 2024, and 3+ through 2023, so every player in the sample has had time to get there. (The full breakdown by position is on our Hit Rate Tool.)

1.01-1.06: 65% (1+), 52% (2+), 40% (3+)
1.07-1.12: 56%, 44%, 35%
2.01-2.06: 39%, 30%, 23%
2.07-2.12: 20%, 13%, 8%
Round 3: 23%, 14%, 10%
Round 4: 11%, 6%, 3%

Some of the biggest takeaways:

Early first round running backs are the safest bet in rookie drafts. 73% of RBs drafted 1.01-1.06 have had at least one hit season, and half of them have had three or more. That's the best number in the entire study. So if you're sitting at 1.02 debating Baugh, the data is on your side. Taking a RB that early in superflex used to feel crazy. It shouldn't anymore.

The back half of round 2 is still a black hole. Hit rates get cut in half from 2.01-2.06 (39%) to 2.07-2.12 (20%). When I first ran this study a few years back, late 2nds were hitting at a lower rate than 4th rounders. That's evened out a bit, but late 2nds still hit less often than 3rd rounders (23%). Don't pay a premium to move up from the 3rd into the back of the 2nd. If anything, sell your late 2nds to someone who values them more than the data does.

Late first round WRs have been better than early first round WRs. 68% vs 52% for 1+, and 53% vs 31% for 3+. The sample sizes here are small (13 to 28 picks per bucket), so I wouldn't treat it as gospel. But it's worth knowing if you're on the clock at 1.08 and your guy is a receiver.

QB value falls off fast after the top six. QBs taken 1.01-1.06 hit at least once 68% of the time. From 1.07-1.12, that drops to 38%. In superflex, where a QB actually goes matters more than the fact that he's a QB.

A few guys worth talking about (stats through Week 4):

Jadan Baugh (RB, Florida, 1.02). 83 carries, 600 yards (7.2 YPC), and 11 rushing touchdowns in four games, including 29-142-3 against Ole Miss. He's a 6'1", 231-pound three-down back, and right now he looks like the best running back in college football. Pair that with the early RB hit rate and 1.02 makes a lot of sense.

Darian Mensah (QB, Miami, 1.04). 94-of-106 (88.7%), 1,211 yards, 14 TD, 0 INT, and 11.4 YPA since transferring from Duke. That's absurd. The caveat is that only two of his four opponents (Stanford and Wake Forest) are Power 4 teams, and neither is a great defense. If he keeps this up once the schedule gets tougher, 1.04 is too low.

Charlie Becker (WR, Indiana, 1.03). 19 catches, 370 yards, and 6 TDs, and he's clearly Indiana's go-to guy even with Nick Marsh in the room. E watched the Northwestern game and they just kept feeding him. Our comp is Christian Watson: long strides, high-point ability, and a route tree that's still developing.

KJ Duff (WR, Rutgers, 2.01). 6'6", 225, with 29 catches for 550 yards and 7 TDs, including 9-196-3 in the opener. He wasn't even in our preseason top 24, so this one's on us. Defenses are going to key on him from here, so the next few weeks will tell us a lot.

Arch Manning (QB, Texas, 1.12). 63.5% completions, 862 yards, 7 TD, 3 INT. Not exactly the start people wanted, but Texas is 4-0 with wins over Ohio State and at Tennessee. This is where E and I disagree the most. One of us took him way earlier than 1.12 in our re-draft. The other compared him to Daniel Jones. You'll have to watch to find out who.

The video
Round 1 re-draft first, then the honorable mentions, then a full movement board of who rose and who fell since our preseason mock. Our picks break from the ADP above in a few big spots, and we explain every one of them.

The mock draft board is live
The draft board we used in the video is now free to use on our website. Every prospect's 2026 game log, the hit rate for the exact slot you're picking at, pro comps, NFL draft rankings, and how each player has moved since our preseason mock, all updating live as you make picks. You can pick your slot or set your exact picks if you've made trades, and the CPU drafts around you.

The bigger reason we built it: the ADP above is my best guess, and I'd rather it wasn't. Crowd-sourced 2027 superflex rookie ADP from everyone's mocks is the next piece we're building, so we can see where these guys actually go months before real rookie draft data exists. We think it's the best free mock draft tool out there, and it's staying free.

The website
The mock draft tool lives on hivefantasy.com. I will be updating/refreshing ADP and prospect profiles, but there's already a lot there right now:

2027 Mock Draft: run unlimited superflex rookie mocks with hit rates at every pick;

2027 Big Board: all 48 prospects with hit probabilities from our rookie model;

2027 Prospect Reports: scouting reports and pro comps for every player;

Hit Rate Tool: the full 12-year study, broken out by position and pick range;

Methodology: sample sizes, thresholds, and sourcing, if you want to poke holes in it.

Would love to hear from you guys in the comments. Let us know if there’s anyone we’re overlooking, too high on, or too low on.

Spent the last couple of weeks watching tape and digging through the numbers, scouting the best college RBs. Pulled what matters: yards after contact, missed tackles forced, breakaway run rate, receiving grades, how they move on film, offensive line quality, and more. Ranked 20 of them here — the full 30 is in the video.

If you’re building a devy roster, here’s who I’m targeting and why the tape says they’ll translate. This list does not include freshman, as the focus of this video/post is the best returning RBs, composing the 27/28 classes. I did separate work on the freshman class.

S TIER

1. Kewan Lacy (Ole Miss, 5’11” 200) — Junior

Contact balance is the tell-all stat for long-term NFL value, and Lacy has 1,000 yards after contact in 2025 — top 5 in the country. That’s not a fluke. He’s forcing the 2nd-most missed tackles in Power 5 (89), and he’s doing it running behind an Ole Miss OL ranked 51st out of 69 in the FBS. Imagine what he does with NFL-level blocking.

The RZ production backs it up: 24 TDs, most among Power 5 RBs. He’s also got the breakaway speed (top 3 in runs of 15+ yards) and he’s a willing receiver (29 catches last year). If I’m building a devy roster and Lacy is on the board, he’s top-5 at the position.

2. Ahmad Hardy (Mizzou, 5’10” 206) — Junior

1,142 yards after contact is the #1 mark in Power 5. 97 missed tackles forced — also #1. And he did it in the SEC, on a Mizzou team that wasn’t running all over people. The contact balance is elite, the explosive run ability is elite (most 15+ yard runs in CFB), and the production speaks for itself: 1,648 yards and 16 TDs on the ground.

The gun shot wound is the elephant: recovery timeline is uncertain, and that’s a real material fact for devy valuation. But if he’s healthy? This is a translatable skill set that NFL teams will love. Monitor his health closely.

A TIER

3. Jadan Baugh (Florida, 6’1” 231) — Junior

First Florida back to hit 1K yards since 2015. What makes him interesting is the receiver role — 33 catches, and he moves well for 231. The weaknesses: doesn’t have elite top-end speed (that’s the one glaring gap), and the production came in an offense that’s about to get a lot better.

He’s a physical, elusive runner with surprising quickness. This is a devy target with a real floor because the receiving upside is there. Even if he’s not a 1,000-yard guy every year, he has NFL-level positional value.

4. Nate Frazier (Georgia, 5’10” 210) — Junior

91 PFF run grade in 2025. Changes direction well, accelerates quickly off his cuts, and runs in the 4.3s with elite jump metrics (10.58 100M dash in HS, 22 MPH GPS on field). He’s a solid receiver out of the backfield too.

The complication: limited production at Georgia because of the RBBC. Don’t mistake low volume for lack of talent. The grades and the athletic testing translate. Devy league target if you’re patient on volume.

5. Mark Fletcher (Miami, 6’2” 225) — Junior

842 of his 1,184 rushing yards came after contact. That’s elite contact balance. He also hit 100+ yards three of his last four games, including in the playoffs. This is a three-year producer who’s graded 84+ on PFF’s rushing scale every single season.

The gap: he doesn’t have elite speed or an extensive receiving role. But contact balance + consistency is a devy arrow that ages well. He’s a safe, productive stash.

6. Isaac Brown (Louisville, 5’9” 190) — Junior

Verified 22 MPH GPS speed. 7.8 yards per carry on his career. 2,046 rushing yards and 18 TDs in just two seasons. And he’s already doing it as a receiver too (43 catches through two years).

Brown’s one of those backs that flies under the radar because Louisville isn’t a Blue Blood. But the tape and the testing say he’s special. I’m planting a flag: Brown is being undervalued in devy drafts.

7. Bo Jackson (Ohio State, 6’0” 217) — Sophomore

1,085 yards rushing, 200 receiving as a true freshman. PFF loved him both as a rusher and receiver. And look at the testing: 21 MPH GPS top speed, prototypical size. He was also a 5-star recruit, which means the tape guys already knew.

The film is clean. The athleticism is clean. He’s a high-upside devy stash who you can afford to wait on volume — the talent is undeniable.

B TIER

8. Justice Haynes (Georgia Tech, 5’11” 210) — Junior

6 out of 7 games over 100 yards last season. 7.1 yards per carry. 22 MPH GPS speed. And he’s doing it at a school that’s not exactly a run-heavy Power 5 anymore.

The red flag: durability. He couldn’t stay healthy in 2025, and he’s not a pass-catcher yet. But if he can hold up, the production arrow is pointed up for devy purposes.

9. Nate Sheppard (Duke, 5’10” 195) — Sophomore

1,132 rushing yards and 286 receiving yards as a true freshman (12 total TDs). Top 10 in missed tackles forced (63). 37 receptions with a 75 PFF receiving grade.

The genetic component is wild too — brother, father, and mother are all D1 athletes. Sheppard’s got the athleticism and the production timeline is ahead of the curve. Devy stash candidate with upside.

10. Caleb Hawkins (Oklahoma State, 6’2” 200) — Sophomore

1,400 yards and 25 TDs as a true freshman. Highest PFF rushing grade in all of CFB. 4.57 yards after contact per attempt. 32 catches, 370 receiving yards.

The caveat: Oklahoma State isn’t Power 5 anymore, so there’s a quality-of-comp question. But the tape is clean and the production is undeniable. Devy target with NFL-translatable skill set.

11. Raleek Brown (Texas, 5’9” 195) — Junior

Elite first step and lateral agility. The jump cut is effortless. When you flip tape, the initial burst — that first 10-yard acceleration — is what jumps out. He’s undersized and it took him a few years to break out (5-star coming in), but the tape looks special now.

The real question: workload at Texas. Smothers is the other back in the room, and both have similar skillsets. Keep an eye on role development — it’ll matter for devy value.

12. Hollywood Smothers (Texas, 5’11” 195) — Junior

Similar comp to Raleek. Undersized, good pass-catcher (56 combined receptions over last two years), elite breakaway rate (55% of his runs go for 15+). 4 yards after contact per attempt on his career — solid for his size.

Can he hold the lead back role at Texas? That’s the key variable for devy value. If he does, he’s an early-round target. If it’s a split, he’s a later-round flier.

13. LJ Martin (BYU, 6’2” 220) — Senior

Tyler Allgeier / Najee Harris archetype. Uber productive as a junior: 1,299 rushing yards, 251 receiving yards (1,500+ total). Had 10 games over 100 total yards. 26 career TDs — red zone presence is real.

The gap: he’s not a speed guy. Lacks breakaway speed. But contact balance and receiving ability are solid. Devy target if you want a safe, productive back without elite upside.

C TIER

14. Antwan Raymond (Rutgers, 5’11” 205) — Junior

Uber productive as a sophomore: 1,238 rushing yards, 224 receiving yards, 15 total TDs. 76 missed tackles forced as a runner, another 8 as a receiver. 884 yards after contact — the contact balance is solid.

88 PFF rushing grade, 70 PFF receiving grade. Both respectable. The concern: he’s not a super-fast straight-line speed guy, and he was less efficient against top-tier defenses. Devy depth piece with a real floor.

15. Waymond Jordan (USC, 5’9” 210) — Junior

This one stings. Jordan was very impressive to start 2025 — averaged over 100 rushing yards per game in started games. Then the Michigan injury (ankle surgery) shut him down.

Before that: 5.1 yards after contact per attempt. Powerful and elusive runner with a low center of gravity. The tape study says he’s a tough, physical back who finishes runs. Monitor his health — if he’s right, he’s a late-devy target worth the flier.

16. Dierre Hill (Oregon, 5’11” 205) — Sophomore

Extremely impressive as a true freshman in 2025: 655 rushing yards, 137 receiving yards, 6 total TDs. 91 PFF rushing grade on 8.9 yards per carry. That’s elite production for a freshman.

The setup gets better: Whittington is gone, and Hill received the third-most carries on Oregon last year behind two departing backs. 6.5 yards after contact per attempt and a 61% breakaway run rate. He’s the future lead back at a Power 5 program. High-upside devy stash.

17. King Miller (USC, 6’0” 210) — Sophomore

Since becoming the starter week 7, King Miller finished with four games over 120 rushing yards. Over 1K total yards as a redshirt freshman, starting only eight games. Put up 172 total yards and a TD against Michigan.

He’s faster and a better receiver than Waymond Jordan, but not as strong or elusive. Devy target if USC establishes him as the lead back. The film is clean.

18. Jordan Marshall (Michigan, 5’11” 216) — Junior

5-star recruit coming out of high school. In four games started last year, Marshall averaged 130 yards rushing + 1.5 TDs (and 16 receiving yards per game). 589 yards after contact in limited starts — the contact balance is there.

The gaps: he’s serviceable but not spectacular as a receiver, and he’s probably not a special athlete from a testing standpoint. But the production was real, and Michigan’s environment matters. Devy target if the volume holds.

19. Jordon Davison (Oregon, 6’0” 236) — Sophomore

Another talented true freshman: 700+ total yards, 15 TDs, and he’s a red zone force. 91 PFF rushing grade on 5.9 yards per carry. Surprisingly quick for his size, although not a burner.

He’s not as good a receiver as Hill and not as fast, but he’s massive at 236 and the scoring upside is there. Devy lottery ticket in the mid-round range.

20. DeSean Bishop (Tennessee, 5’10” 208) — Sophomore

1,076 yards and 16 TDs as a sophomore starter. 90 PFF rushing grade. Had the 2nd-most rushing yards in Tennessee high school football history. 48% breakaway run rate in 2025.

That’s 20 of the top college RBs worth stashing. Full 30 in the video.

Who’s your devy RB target this season? Any of these guys on your roster already?

Across 2021–2025, about 1 in 3 picks in the first 8 rounds of a 12-team PPR redraft (1QB) busted. Bust means the pick scored 25%+ worse than the average return for that position and draft cost over the five-year sample (in avg. total PPR points) — production vs. cost, not the positional rank cutoffs we've used in past studies. Round-by-round, position-by-position, because knowing who to avoid in each round is just as important as knowing who to target.

Methodology: ADP from Fantasy Football Calculator, season finishes from FantasyPros, 2021–2025 (n=483 drafted seasons across rounds 1–8).

Round	QB	RB	WR	TE
R1	—	27.3% (n=33)	37.5% (n=24)	0%* (n=2)
R2	20.0%* (n=5)	29.6% (n=27)	22.2% (n=27)	66.7%* (n=3)
R3	44.4% (n=9)	19.0% (n=21)	32.0% (n=25)	42.9% (n=7)
R4	14.3%* (n=7)	42.9% (n=21)	29.6% (n=27)	20.0%* (n=5)
R5	36.4% (n=11)	57.1% (n=14)	35.7% (n=28)	42.9% (n=7)
R6	28.6%* (n=7)	43.5% (n=23)	40.7% (n=27)	50.0% (n=6)
R7	25.0% (n=8)	22.2% (n=18)	42.9% (n=21)	71.4% (n=7)
R8	42.9% (n=7)	31.6% (n=19)	39.3% (n=28)	44.4% (n=9)

*small sample (n<10), directional not predictive

Few things stood out going through this:

RB swings hard depending on the round. Round 3 RB is actually a good spot to be picking (19% bust rate) — two rounds later it's basically a coin flip you're losing, 57%. Worst cell on the whole board, by a wide margin.

WR mid round bust rates are higher than expected. Mid-round "floor" WRs is a myth, according to the data. Bust rate just climbs, from 22% in round 2 to over 40% by round 6. That being said, the bust rates are still lower for WR than for RB in the same middle-round range (Rounds 4-6).

QB stays pretty steady the whole way except two spikes in R3 and R8 — sample's thinner there so we're not reading too much into it, but flagging it anyway. Same for TE in Rounds 6-8.

• This year's adp:
  • QBs in R3 (44% bust rate): Josh Allen
  • QBs in R8 (43% bust rate): Trevor Lawrence, Matthew Stafford
  • TEs in Rounds 6-8 (50+% bust rate): Tyler Warren, Harold Fannin Jr., Sam Laporta. Kyle Pitts, Travis Kelce

We ran this same math against this year's ADP and flagged one bust per round, 1 through 8. We didn't just blindly follow that data, but we used it as helpful context. Ultimately, the bust picks are player takes and personal convictions. Four of them:

De'Von Achane, round 1 (27% historical bust rate). Those receiving numbers happened with Tua at QB, and with Hill and Waddle both drawing coverage. All three are gone now — Tua released, Hill released, Waddle traded to Denver — and Malik Willis is under center with a rebuilt receiver room. That role doesn't just carry over to a completely different situation.

Garrett Wilson, round 3 (32% historical bust rate). Jets added a first-round rookie in Omar Cooper Jr. and already had Adonai Mitchell in the room from the Sauce Gardner trade. More mouths to feed on that offense, and Geno hasn't had a fantasy-relevant WR1 season in years.

Davante Adams, round 4 (30% historical bust rate). This one's not really about the round — R4 WR busts under 30% of the time historically. It's just him. 34 in December (which comes with injury risk), coming off a TD rate that has no real precedent for repeating, and a diminishing target share.

Bhayshul Tuten, round 5 (57% historical bust rate). Sitting in the worst historical cell in the whole study, and recent news out of training camp would suggest Chris Rodriguez and LeQuint Allen will both have valuable roles, Rodriguez on early downs and in the RZ, and Allen primarily in the passing game.

Other four — rounds 2, 6, 7, and 8 — plus the full breakdown and reasoning on all eight, are in the video.

Who are your top bust picks for this year? Anyone we included that you disagree with? Let us hear the arguments in the comments.

We've been running a redraft hit rate study, tracking every player drafted in PPR leagues from 2021–2025 and measuring how often they hit (or missed) certain thresholds. This is the third post in the series breaking it down round by round. Previous posts covered our overall framework for the study, and the RB deadzone (rounds 4-6).

A few of you left some comments that were too good to ignore, and we actually went back and incorporated some of them into our process. More on that below.

The Round 2 data

Over the full five-year sample, 37% of RBs drafted in Round 2 went on to finish as a top-6 fantasy RB (our “league winner” threshold). For WRs drafted in that same round? Just 26%.

That gap is already significant. But when you zoom into the last two seasons, it gets ugly.

45% of Round 2 RBs finished top-6 over the last two years. For WRs, it dropped to 9%.

That's a 5-to-1 ratio. And it's not a one-year blip — it's a two-year trend that's moving in opposite directions. RBs are trending up from their five-year baseline, while WRs are cratering.

A commenter on a previous post (shoutout u/bornandraised808) asked whether five years of data could be misleading since the league evolves so quickly — and it's a fair point. We had the same concern going in, which is why we looked at both five year and two year samples for this video. For Round 2, the recency split really strengthens the RB case. The five-year number is already good, and the recent trend makes it even better.

Applied to this year's ADP

Right now there are 7 RBs going in Round 2 and 5 WRs.

At RB: James Cook, Derrick Henry, Omarion Hampton, Saquon Barkley, Chase Brown, Kenneth Walker, Jeremiyah Love.

At WR: Drake London, AJ Brown, George Pickens, Chris Olave, Nico Collins.

If you apply the last-two-year rates:

• ~3 of those 7 RBs should return a league-winning (top-6) season

.

• ~0.5 of those 5 WRs should do the same. Meaning there's a real chance none of them finish top-6.

That doesn't mean those WRs are all bad picks. It means Round 2 WR capital is paying for a floor (low-end WR1, high-end WR2), probably not a realistic ceiling. For top-6 production in this round, your best bet is RB.

What about an even stricter threshold?

Another commenter (shoutout u/Corosis99) pushed back on top-6 being too generous for a "league winner" label, especially across positions with different scoring curves. They suggested something like top-3 would be a better threshold. We went back and ran it.

At the top-3 threshold, both RBs and WRs in Round 2 hit at just 7%. So the tighter you squeeze the definition, the more the positional gap disappears — but the hit rate also drops to a point where it's barely actionable. The top-6 framework captures the picks that actually swing your season, and at that level, the RB edge is massive.

Our three league-winner (top 6) picks at RB

We went through all 7 Round 2 RBs and landed on three guys we think have the best shot at a top-6 finish this year:

1. James Cook (RB7 ADP) — The safest pick in the group. Led the NFL in rushing last season, finished as the RB6, and the Bills' offense should be even better with the additions they made this offseason. Not groundbreaking, but don't overthink it.
2. Omarion Hampton (RB8 ADP) — The polarizing one. His rookie numbers were underwhelming on the surface, but we think that says more about the Chargers' bottom ranked run blocking offensive line than it does about Hampton. He's a 6'2", 221-pound freak who runs a 4.46 (93rd percentile speed score). Mike McDaniel comes in, the O-line gets healthy, plus additions — this is the kind of environment where a talent like that explodes.
3. Chase Brown (RB10 ADP) — Finished as RB8 last year with Joe Burrow missing significant time. When Burrow was healthy, Brown was a top-6 back. We're not projecting a leap — we're projecting Burrow to play 17 games. He had only 6 rushing TDs last year, which should tick up if the Bengals improve as a team. Add in one of the highest light-front rates in the league (defenses are too worried about Burrow/Chase/Higgins to load the box) and his growing role in the passing game, and there's a clear path to a top-6 finish.

The detailed breakdown on each guy — including some of the film stuff and the specific stats that sold us — is in the video we just dropped, linked here. We also briefly discuss other players we considered, and how positional scarcity factors into the RB v WR debate.

This is the third video in the series. We'll be looking at the position specific "bust rate" data for each round next - and picking one player in each round to avoid this year. If you don't want to miss that one, feel free to subscribe on YouTube and follow along.

Appreciate all the engagement on these posts. The comments from the last two really influenced how we approached this one. Let us know who you guys prefer in Round 2 this year... it's shaping up to be a pivotal part of the draft.

My co-host and I run a small fantasy football YouTube channel focused on analytics and scouting. Last week we posted our redraft hit rate study, and a lot of people asked us to put names to the numbers. So that's what this video does, starting with the running back dead zone, rounds 4 through 6.

We pulled ADP from 1,500+ leagues (2021–2025) via Fantasy Football Calculator, matched every drafted player to their FantasyPros season finish and asked three questions. Were they startable, were they a league winner, and were they a bust?

Startable: Top 24 RB finish.

League Winner: Top 6 RB finish.

Bust: finished 12 or more spots below their positional ADP rank (i.e. they were drafted as RB20 off the board and finished RB32 or worse in total fantasy points).

Ten running backs are currently going in Rounds 4–6, and history is brutal about this range. We compared the last five years' data and the last two years, to uncover more recent trends.

The floor is actually getting safer. 40% of RBs drafted in Rounds 4–6 have been startable over the five-year sample, and that number climbs to 52% over the last two years.

The league winner ceiling has vanished. 5% have been league winners across five years. Over the last two years, that number is 0%. Not a single running back drafted in rounds 4-6 has finished Top 6 in the last two seasons.

Roughly half of them bust. For both time frames, close to 50% finished 12+ spots below where they were taken (in terms of positional rank). So the realistic outcome for these ten guys is five or six have startable seasons, four or five busts, and probably nobody (maybe one) is a league winner.

We went through all ten running backs in this range and picked four busts, six startables, and one league winner each (we didn’t agree).

Although the data is there, it was definitely hard for us to pick who we thought fits in each category. But take a read below and let us know who you disagree about!

One caveat about the busts. The realistic path to a bust finish for a lot of these guys probably involves some kind of injury, and we're not in the business of predicting injuries. So we focused on the player, backfield situation, and offense as whole.

The 4 busts:

Bucky Irving (RB21). This one was hard because we both like the player. But Tampa gave Kenny Gainwell real money, coming off a year in Pittsburgh where he was a legitimate weapon as a receiver out of the backfield. Bucky needs PPR volume to hit at this cost. Add the risk of Sean Tucker getting goal line work and last year’s injury. A three-way backfield is a real outcome.

Bhayshul Tuten (RB26). Painful pick for E as a Jags fan. He was RB53 last year in a backup role. Jacksonville didn't spend big draft capital or big money on him, so the system doesn't owe him anything. Tuten vs. Chris Rodriguez v. LeQuint Allen. Yes, we know Coen just hyped him up, but at the end of the day it's just coach speak. And Coen also made a point to go get his guy, Rodriguez. No one really knows what this backfield will look like.

Jaylen Warren (RB27). He was RB17 last year and he's been underrated most of his career. But Pittsburgh signed Rico Dowdle in free agency, and there are already beat reporters saying Dowdle has the inside track to the lead role. Mike McCarthy has a long history of riding one back (roughly 67% of the touches to his main guy).

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB28). A lot of positive hype behind Rhamondre from other analysts. But the Patriots used strong draft capital on TreVeyon and he is too explosive to keep off the field. Assuming rational coaching and offseason improvements, the workload tilts.

The six startables:

Travis Etienne (RB20). He was RB10 last year and RB3 back in 2023, so the talent is obvious. But New Orleans restructured Alvin Kamara and made it clear he's staying involved. Closer to a 60-40 split is exactly the thing that caps a guy at high end startable instead of league winner.

D'Andre Swift (RB22). Going RB22 means he'd have to finish RB34 or worse to bust, and he's been an RB2 essentially every year of his career. Boring, steady, hard to see it breaking unless Monangai takes the job outright.

Quinshon Judkins (RB23). The clearest workhorse of the group. RB26 as a rookie, coming off a leg injury, on a bad offense, with nobody else in that backfield taking meaningful work (maybe Sampson?).

TreVeyon Henderson (RB25). The other side of the Rhamondre call. He finished RB21 as a rookie and there were weeks where he was a legitimate week winner, putting up 25+ points. A great offense and there's a real chance both backs are startable.

The last two startables are also our league winner picks, and this is where we differ:

Cam Skattebo (RB19). Garrett's league winner. The Giants rebuilt the offensive line, the identity of that offense is going to be the run game, and Jaxson Dart is openly telling media Skattebo is the focal point. They're not hiding it. Pair that with a defense good enough to keep games in script and the volume gets scary.

David Montgomery (RB24). Ethan’s league winner. Big jump from RB24 to Top 6, I know. But he posted a Top 5 fantasy season on a bad Bears team, and he's going to a Houston roster with the best defense in the league and an offense that has nowhere to go but up with Nico Collins healthy and the line addressed. He's the goal line back, he's caught 60+ passes in a season before, and there's no Jahmyr Gibbs in that backfield taking half his work.

Do you think either of us will be right? Or are you betting on someone else from this group to provide league winning upside?

Feel free to leave a comment down below if you disagree with any of the player takes!

Full reasoning on all ten is in the video linked above.

My co-host and I run a small fantasy football YouTube channel focused on analytics and scouting. We have a 12-year dynasty rookie hit rate study that we've been building for a while, and we recently turned that same methodology into a redraft study.

We pulled ADP from 1,500+ leagues (2021–2025) via Fantasy Football Calculator, matched every drafted player to their FantasyPros season finish, and tracked hit rates across two dimensions:

Startable Rate: the rate at which players returned a Top 12 QB/TE season, Top 24 RB season, or Top 36 WR season.

League Winner Rate: the rate at which players finished top 6 at their position, returning league winner type value.

A roster full of starters, while valuable for depth, doesn't win you a championship. You need to know where ceiling bets actually payoff and where they don't — and honestly, we found some of the results pretty surprising.

Some of the biggest takeaways:

Wide receiver is the ceiling play in Round 1. 50% of WRs drafted in Round 1 finished as league winners. Running backs? 33%. The positional scarcity crowd is playing a floor game in a round where ceiling is on the table. Makes sense when you think about it — Round 1 WRs are your JSNs, Pukas, Ja'Marr Chases, your target-volume monsters. And when you combine it with the fact that WR league winner hit rates are cut in half in round 2 (26%), the optimal path starts to become clear.

Round 2 is the last dependable ceiling window for running back. This might be the most actionable finding in the whole study. RB league-winner odds actually go up from Round 1 to Round 2 — 33% → 37%. Then they fall off a cliff to 14% in Round 3 and 5% by Rounds 4–6. If you don't land your league-winning RB by the end of Round 2, the data says you're probably not getting one from the draft.

Rounds 4–6 are a ceiling graveyard for RB and WR. Both positions sit at 5% league-winner odds in this range. And RB floor is only 40% startable — it's a bit of a landmine. People chase upside here, but this is actually the worst range in the draft to do it. Meanwhile, QB and TE league-winner odds are at their best relative to cost in this same range. So if you still need your onesie positions, this is the spot.

Round 3 is a fork in the road. RB and WR still carry solid floor here (~76% and 72% startable), but ceiling craters. QB is 44% league winners and TE is 57%. So your Round 3 pick is really a philosophical decision — lock in safe RB/WR floor, or swing for elite QB/TE upside with a Josh Allen or a Trey McBride/Colston Loveland type (assuming Bowers is gone).

Rounds 7–12 are dart-throw territory. Floor and ceiling both bottom out, which means the "safe pick" is kind of a mirage in these rounds. This is where you want to think in if/then terms — if this handcuff hits, if this rookie hits, if this backfield shakes out a certain way, then this guy has Top-6 potential. Drafting with the right mindset across a large volume of picks is way more important than any individual pick in this range.

We broke all of this down into a round-by-round optimal draft path in the full video, and the next episode in the series applies this framework directly to this year's ADP — naming the players who fit each round's ceiling and floor profile. We’ll try our hand at predicting the hits and misses at each position.

Full video linked above.

Happy to answer questions about methodology or talk through the data if anyone wants to dig in. Sample sizes, thresholds, and sourcing are all documented in the study. And the full spreadsheet with all the hit rates is shown in the last part of the video, for anyone interested.

Caleb Hawkins might be the most productive freshman back nobody outside North Texas watched last year.

True freshman line: ~1,800 scrimmage yards | 25 rush TD (led the entire FBS, freshman record) | 94 PFF run grade | 86 forced missed tackles

He was a 3-star out of Shawnee, OK, and the engine of the No. 1 scoring offense in the country. The thing that sells me on the tape: roughly three-quarters of his rushing yards came after contact.

So — does the production translate to the Big 12, or was it a Group-of-Five mirage? Where’s he going in your devy/C2C drafts?

Are you buying him as one of the top rb prospects in the 2028 eligible class?

With the 2026 rookie drafts wrapped, we figured it was time to look ahead. We put together a full 2027 SuperFlex rookie mock — 48 picks in projected rookie-draft order. Up front, to be clear: this is a projection of where consensus lands next May, not our personal rankings (that's a separate piece).

Think of it as a fall watch-list. Monitoring these guys this fall will give you a leg up on your league-mates who cram 2027 rookie prep next spring, right before the NFL draft. Plus, it makes watching CFB more fun (for those of you who don't play in devy, c2c or cff leagues).

Round 1 preview below, full 4 rounds in the free article above. We've been watching these guys for years (since they came out of high school), as we're deep in the devy/c2c streets ourselves. Figured we'd give you guys an early look at projected ADP and how we see each prospect at this point in the process.

Without further ado:

1.01 — Jeremiah Smith, WR, Ohio State. Nothing to argue about, and there won't be in May. The gap to No. 2 is wide enough that the only real question is which QB goes 1.02. Alpha X who wins at all three levels with a size-speed-release blend you see once or twice a decade.

Comp: Julio Jones

1.02 — Arch Manning, QB, Texas. First QB off the board in SF, and the name value + projected draft capital influences it as much as the tape — he has a strong chance to go top-5 in the NFL draft next April. Finished 2025 at 26:7 (TDs to INTs) with 10 rushing TDs as a first-year starter, now with Coleman, Wingo, and Mosley around him. Watch to see if the processing improves this fall.

Comp: Daniel Jones (with a higher ceiling)

1.03 — Julian Sayin, QB, Ohio State. Best pure passer in the class and in a tier with Arch and Dante. Rewrote OSU's accuracy records as a redshirt freshman with elite decision-making, though he didn't elevate the team past Indiana when it mattered. Can play into 2028, so the declare decision's a question, and the lack of rushing caps the fantasy ceiling some.

Comp: Brock Purdy

1.04 — Dante Moore, QB, Oregon. Third QB off the board, trending up every year of his career. 30:10 with the best big-time-throw rate in the class; the climb from a rough UCLA freshman year to Oregon's star is an arc that will likely get him top 10 NFL capital next year. Mostly-shotgun tape and a frame that looks shorter than listed are the main questions. Also want to see if he can lead Oregon to a championship run this time around.

Comp: Bo Nix (with a touch less athleticism)

1.05 — Cam Coleman, WR, Texas (via Auburn). First WR after Smith, and the least proven résumé up here. The No. 1 player in the portal traded the SEC's worst QB play for Arch Manning — about the biggest QB upgrade a receiver could ask for. Still raw as a route-runner, but a dominant big-play and RZ threat at 6-3/201 who owns the catch point.

Comp: DK Metcalf ceiling / Michael Pittman floor

1.06 — Kewan Lacy, RB, Ole Miss. First back off the board and the projected RB1 going in. Went from forgotten Mizzou freshman to a single-season Ole Miss TD record — 1,500+ yards and 24 scores as a true soph behind a bad run-blocking line. Watching whether the workload and pass-game role continue under a new staff.

Comp: Aaron Jones

1.07 — Bryant Wesco Jr., WR, Clemson. Outside of Smith, the most convincing efficiency profile in the class. Was tracking toward 1,000 yards before a scary spinal injury ended his year; Clemson has him doing everything but contact this spring and expects him full-go by camp. The medical return is the story this fall — if he clears it he's a first-rounder in both the NFL and rookie drafts.

Comp: Tee Higgins

1.08 — Ryan Williams, WR, Alabama. At 17 he was an All-SEC freshman All-American (865/8) before a drop-plagued sophomore year. Youngest player in the class, huge potential, and reportedly back outside after being miscast as a slot-first WR last year. It all comes down to the hands.

Comp: Garrett Wilson (if the concentration cleans up)

1.09 — Nate Frazier, RB, Georgia. Second back off the board, vaulting ahead of Hardy for now given the uncertainty around Hardy's situation. 4.3 speed at 210 with per-touch numbers near the top of the class on committee snaps. Watching to see if he can command a bigger workload and improve upon last year's numbers.

Comp: Kenneth Walker

1.10 — Ryan Wingo, WR, Texas. Third Longhorn in Round 1 and the returning leader of the room. Five-star pedigree, 834 yards as a true soph, two years of chemistry with Manning, and rare YAC for his size — the 1B to Coleman's 1A. Drop rate and the target split with Coleman are the fall watch items.

Comp: Rome Odunze

1.11 — Trinidad Chambliss, QB, Ole Miss. Fourth QB off the board, eligibility cloud finally cleared. Went D-II to leading a 13-2 Playoff semifinalist and a top-8 Heisman finish, grading as a top-3 QB before a courtroom win sent him back. Age (24 as a rookie) and size (6-1/200) are the knocks.

Comp: Russell Wilson

1.12 — T.J. Moore, WR, Clemson. Round 1 closer and Clemson's other returning stud. Surest hands in this WR tier, and Antonio Williams's exit leaves ~140 targets for him and Wesco. Lacks elite breakaway speed; the question is whether he or Wesco becomes the alpha w/Vizzina throwing the balls.

Comp: Rashod Bateman

That's Round 1. The full mock — all four rounds, 48 players, with a comp and a fall watch-point for every name — is linked up top ⬆️

This is V1. We'll do a midseason update and also a post-season, pre-draft update as well.

Where do you all land? Who's your favorite for 1.02 behind Smith — and is Chambliss at 1.11 too rich for a 24-year-old rookie, or are you in? Tell us where we're too high or too low.

Andrew Marsh, Michigan WR, true freshman last year:

45 rec / 651 yds / 4 TD | 0 drops | 54.5% contested | 11.0 aDOT

2nd-most receiving yards of any true freshman in the country (behind only Toney), catching passes from Bryce Underwood. We’ve got him as a top-5 WR in the 2028 class, and he’s still dirt cheap in devy.

Full highlights + profile breakdown in the vid. Where’s he going in your leagues?

Quick framing: Superflex, non-TEP, based on current startup ADP. My co-host and I each took a best and a worst per round and pushed back on each other where we disagreed — the name on each pick is whose call it is. Rounds 1–4 below; full 8-round breakdown linked in the video above.

Shoutout dynasty data lab, found the website in this subreddit and used it for our ADP source. Sweet site.

Round 1

Best

Ja'Marr Chase - 1.05 (Ethan): Cleanest pick on the board for me. Freak talent tied to a healthy Burrow, and he's younger than people remember.

Puka Nacua - 1.07 (Garrett): If you're choosing among the big-three WRs, I take whoever falls last and pocket the value. QB-proof at 25 — the only knock is the post-Stafford picture in LA.

Worst

Josh Allen - 1.01 (Garrett): Not a knock on his game — it's longevity and value. The Cam-Newton-style punishment worries me long-term, and you can almost always trade back from 1.01, still land an elite piece, and bank extra capital.

Lamar Jackson - 1.10 (Ethan): Love him, but the injury history plus an aging supporting cast scares me, and he wasn't efficient even when healthy last year (~16 PPG). I'd rather move back or take a younger QB.

No real disagreement here — both fades are value/longevity calls, not talent takes.

Round 2

Best

Justin Jefferson - 2.03 (Ethan): Top-two WR talent at his cheapest price ever after a down, QB-capped 2025. Kyler's a genuine upgrade and that offense should bounce back.

Justin Herbert - 2.12 (Garrett): McDaniel replacing Roman is a legitimate scheme upgrade, both tackles (Slater, Alt) are back healthy, the weapons improved, and he's started using his legs. Floor pick at QB8.

Worst

Jaxson Dart - 2.10 (Ethan): Going ahead of Herbert/Hurts/Lawrence on hype. We were early on Dart last year — now the value's run too far and he's a sell. Unproven passer, new run-heavy staff, plays with reckless abandon.

Malik Nabers - 2.01 (Garrett): Talent I love — but he's coming off a torn ACL/meniscus plus a second cleanup procedure, isn't on track for camp, and Week 1's in question. At this ADP I'd sell now and buy back cheaper. Perhaps this has dropped some in the most recent startups, but the risk is palpable right now in the early/mid 2nd.

We agreed on both fades — classic "right player, wrong price."

Round 3

Best

Trevor Lawrence - 3.06 (Ethan): QB4 last year, passing numbers in Josh Allen's neighborhood, and he started running as Liam Coen's offense clicked late. Why's he still mid-third when Caleb Williams (similar arc) goes late first?

Patrick Mahomes - 3.05 (Garrett): If you'd told me a year ago he'd be QB10 in startups, I'd take every share. The knee matters less for him than for run-first QBs — his value's the arm, and that's not going anywhere.

Worst

Colston Loveland - 3.11 (Ethan): He was our TE1 in last year's class and I still like him — but 3.11 off the board is steep when Tucker Kraft and others go 3–4 rounds later. Especially in non-TEP formats.

Nico Collins - 3.10 (Garrett): Age plus a legitimate injury history, and I expect a more run-heavy, defense-led Texans script to cap his volume. Plus, if Tank Dell is even 90% of his former self, that could eat into Nico's target share some too.

The counter on Nico: he's still a 6'4" WR8-caliber alpha — if Houston's passing game takes one step forward (Stroud was bad last year), 1,300+ and double-digit TDs are within the range of outcomes...

On Loveland, the talent isn't the problem; the price is. But there's a legitimate chance he establishes himself as the #1 in this offense and justifies the ADP.

Round 4

Best

Breece Hall - 4.08 (Ethan): A 25-year-old former RB2 overall whose receiving role got starved (~40 targets in 2025). If the Jets finally feed him, it's a steal — and they just paid him to stay.

Brock Purdy - 4.03 (Garrett): Shanahan, a healthy CMC to dump to, and a rebuilt WR room (Mike Evans headlining) after last year's group got decimated. QB13 feels like his floor at 26.

Worst

Kenneth Walker - 4.03 (Ethan): By our hit-rate methodology he's a miss — never a top-15 RB season — and I'm skeptical of the auto-bump Chiefs RBs get.

Carnell Tate - 4.02 (Garrett): He's the consensus (and our) WR1 of the class, but the tape says polished route-runner more than YAC/target-earning alpha, and ADP is buying his Year-1 ceiling. I'd rather grab Jordyn Tyson, Makai Lemon, or Luther Burden later.

The counter on Walker: he never got a true workhorse runway in Seattle, and once Charbonnet went down he was a stud down the stretch — the role, not the talent, has been the cap. And the Chiefs paid him to be the guy.

On Tate: the talent and the Cam Ward bet are legit; it's still projection on an unproven offense, but Daboll knows how to scheme for his weapons, and Ward and Tate have shown early chemistry in OTAs.

Round 5 (preview)

Best

Quinshon Judkins - 5.03 (Ethan)

Luther Burden - 5.04 (Garrett)

Worst

Fernando Mendoza - 5.05 (Ethan)

Rashee Rice - 5.02 (Garrett)

Round 6 (preview)

Best

Devonta Smith - 6.07 (Ethan)

Cam Ward - 6.05 (Garrett)

Worst

Makai Lemon - 6.11 (Ethan)

Josh Jacobs - 6.09 (Garrett)

Round 7 (preview)

Best

Travis Etienne - 7.02 (Ethan)

Tucker Kraft - 7.01 (Garrett)

Worst

RJ Harvey - 7.12 (Ethan)

Bhayshul Tuten - 7.11 (Garrett)

Round 8 (preview)

Best

Christian Watson - 8.10 (Ethan)

Kyler Murray - 8.05 (Garrett)

Worst

D'Andre Swift - 8.07 (Ethan)

Kenyon Sadiq - 8.06 (Garrett)

That's the rounds 1–4 summary, and rounds 5-8 preview. For full reasoning and discussion on each pick, including our debates on guys like Bhayshul Tuten and Makai Lemon, checkout the full video. We welcome any feedback as we're a new and growing channel.

Where do you agree or disagree? Drop your own best/worst by ADP for any of these rounds. Appreciate ya'll!

Don't sleep on King Miller. Trying to get him on your radar before the rest of your devy league figures it out.

Three-star out of Calabasas, RB148 in his class, walked on at USC. Then Waymond Jordan got hurt in Week 7 last year, Miller stepped in, and he was extremely productive. Nearly 1,000 yards and 8 TDs, and he didn't even start the season.

Watched his highlights and came away a believer. Showed some really nice contact balance and elusiveness with 610 yards after contact. He also dropped 158 and a score on Michigan, so this isn't a soft-competition thing. Good vision, breaks tackles, and the speed to take it the distance (45.8% breakaway rate). Pretty good hands out of the backfield too.

Jordan's back in 2026, so it's probably a committee early, which is fine. Keeps his price suppressed for the next year or so, and once Jordan's gone this backfield is Miller's. He's still going late or undrafted in most devy and C2C startups/supplemental drafts right now. That won't last once he's the guy.

We've got him as a 2028 name (three years of eligibility remaining), and he's a late-round dart we're happy to make.

Anyone already rostering him, or is he still off the radar in your leagues?