u/Far-East-locker

About 30 minutes ago, I posted about Futu and Tiger being fined by the Chinese government, which caused the stocks to plunge 40%.

However, after doing more research, I realized this isn't exactly new news. Both companies actually phased out their mainland China business a few years ago, and only a small number of legacy accounts still trade through them.

This fine is actually a good thing because it marks the end of the regulatory risk. Both companies have already transitioned out of China and built up a global user base. Aside from this one-time penalty, it shouldn't affect their core business.

Do your own research, but I just put in a small position in FUTU. I love the app because it is simply the best.

About 30 minutes ago, I posted about Futu and Tiger being fined by the Chinese government, which caused the stocks to plunge 40%.

However, after doing more research, I realized this isn't exactly new news. Both companies actually phased out their mainland China business a few years ago, and only a small number of legacy accounts still trade through them.

This fine is actually a good thing because it marks the end of the regulatory risk. Both companies have already transitioned out of China and built up a global user base. Aside from this one-time penalty, it shouldn't affect their core business.

Do your own research, but I just put in a small position in FUTU. I love the app because it is simply the best.

just broke no English news yet so I translated this from a Chinese website

China’s top securities watchdog has launched an official probe into the domestic and overseas arms of Tiger Brokers, Futu Securities, and Longbridge Securities over illegal operations in the mainland. The regulator has already issued a prior notice of administrative penalties to the firms.

According to the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), these platforms were marketing securities, processing trades, and pocketing profits in mainland China without the required approvals or licenses for brokerage and margin trading. The regulator stated this directly violates Article 120 of the country's Securities Law.

The CSRC noted that the targeted companies still have the legal right to defend themselves, make statements, or request a formal hearing before any final decisions are made. A definitive penalty will be handed down once their arguments have been fully reviewed.

Under the relevant clauses of the Securities Law, the Securities Investment Fund Law, and the Futures and Derivatives Law, the CSRC plans to strip the companies of all illegal earnings and hit them with heavy fines.

This marks the latest escalation in Beijing’s ongoing crackdown on cross-border online brokers. Back in late 2022, regulators ordered platforms like Futu and Tiger to stop signing up new clients in mainland China. Moving into the formal penalty phase signals that enforcement is tightening even further.

Is that a number you reference frequently? Or you found it meaningless.

The last earning report show some promising stats, the Marcum integration is completing, EPS guidance raised. Free cash flow target set at $270M–$290M, which is substantial for a company now trading around $30/share.

Morningstar Fairvalue at $50.47, currently trading at $31.6

Thinking of buying today expecting immediate green? Don't go too aggressive.

Look at $MU around Nvidia's Q4 FY26 earnings (Feb 25, 2026):
•02/25: $429.00
•02/26/2026 $415.56
•02/27/2026 $412.37
•03/06: Dropped to $370.30 (Low)
•03/13: Recovered to $426.13

https://www.reddit.com/r/ValueInvesting/comments/1rfqw2c/accenture_acn_oversold_on_ai_disruption_when_they/

>Inspired by this thread, especially this post

I worked at Accenture for almost six years and I think just about every role there could be replaced by AI.

>The jobs in the USA are mostly product & project management and communication with offshore delivery teams. Accenture also has deep industry-specific knowledge bases to train AI agents on and a talent for developing in-house orchestration systems which leads me to speculate that ACN could jettison 80% of their roles which aren't regulated (Healthcare, Finance, Aerospace) in the next few years and if they can maintain their margins, do quite well.

>Accenture is an organization that is optimized for "the race to the bottom" and I fully believe they will replace any meatsack they can and send their remaining meatsacks to other organizations to tell them how they, too, can get rid of their meatsacks.

>It's going to be a knife fight between Tata, Wipro, CapGemini and Accenture to see who can build the Automated Meatsack Replacement (AMR) system first.

>Anecdotally, I think CapGemini and Accenture are probably the best positioned for AMR implementation due to their deep expertise in industry verticals, and while I'm not ready to jump in, I will be watching.

>This is a recipe for social disruption not seen since 1177 BC.

>May God have mercy on our souls.

For a company like ACN, meatsack is the biggest cost, and those meatsacks are pretty useless.

If AI can replace meatsacks, and also improve performance, would they be able to turn this around?

Having worked in a corporate previously, the role of a consultant firm is not really to help a company, but

1. The management can claim they got an opinion from a third party expert
2. The management can blame the third party expert when there is a problem

Unless the corporate culture changes, the role of consultant firms like Accenture won't change

You can tell by software dropping and all AI (RAM and Semi) show a huge V. might not be back to 800 right away but definitely some momentum showing

Big rebound of MU and SNDK already as of now

Link: https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/285A/tdnet/2815628/00.pdf

AI Summary

Kioxia Holdings (285A) beat earnings -- and by a wide margin. Here's the breakdown:

Full Year (FY ended March 31, 2026) vs. Company's Own Guidance Range

Revenue

Guidance (low-high): JPY 2,179.8B - 2,269.8B

Actual: JPY 2,337.6B

Operating Profit

Guidance (low-high): JPY 709.6B - 799.6B

Actual: JPY 870.4B

Actual results came in above the top of guidance on every major line.

Year-on-Year Growth was also exceptional:

Revenue: +37% (JPY 2,337.6B vs. JPY 1,706.5B prior year)

Operating profit: +93% (JPY 870.4B vs. JPY 451.7B)

Net profit: +104% (JPY 554.5B vs. JPY 272.3B)

Basic EPS: JPY 1,024 vs. JPY 520 the prior year

Analyst consensus estimates going into the year were around JPY 2.11 trillion for revenue and JPY 793 per share for EPS, so the actual EPS of JPY 1,024 also beat the Street's estimates meaningfully. Simply Wall St

The strong performance was driven primarily by higher average selling prices (ASPs) from strong AI data center demand, plus a recovery in smartphone and PC memory demand. The Q1 FY2027 outlook is also very bullish, with the company guiding revenue of JPY 1.75 trillion for just the June quarter, implying continued momentum.

Link: https://ssl4.eir-parts.net/doc/285A/tdnet/2815628/00.pdf

AI Summary

Kioxia Holdings (285A) beat earnings -- and by a wide margin. Here's the breakdown:

Full Year (FY ended March 31, 2026) vs. Company's Own Guidance Range

Revenue
Guidance (low-high): JPY 2,179.8B - 2,269.8B
Actual: JPY 2,337.6B

Operating Profit
Guidance (low-high): JPY 709.6B - 799.6B
Actual: JPY 870.4B

Actual results came in above the top of guidance on every major line.

Year-on-Year Growth was also exceptional:

Revenue: +37% (JPY 2,337.6B vs. JPY 1,706.5B prior year)

Operating profit: +93% (JPY 870.4B vs. JPY 451.7B)

Net profit: +104% (JPY 554.5B vs. JPY 272.3B)

Basic EPS: JPY 1,024 vs. JPY 520 the prior year

Analyst consensus estimates going into the year were around JPY 2.11 trillion for revenue and JPY 793 per share for EPS, so the actual EPS of JPY 1,024 also beat the Street's estimates meaningfully. Simply Wall St

The strong performance was driven primarily by higher average selling prices (ASPs) from strong AI data center demand, plus a recovery in smartphone and PC memory demand. The Q1 FY2027 outlook is also very bullish, with the company guiding revenue of JPY 1.75 trillion for just the June quarter, implying continued momentum.

Sell now if you want, just don't comeback and cry when we reach a new ATH next Monday!

Not American here.

I don't like DJT, but i like money.

The way he pumps Dell after increasing his holdings, it is bananas that a president can do that, but he did it without

Do you think everything on the list is gold and that we should move money into it?

The three i am thinking are

Hood

V

PLTR

Here is the list of recent transaction

https://extapps2.oge.gov/201/Presiden.nsf/PAS+Index/405E4EC4E27BE8D185258DF7002DD1C0/$FILE/Trump%2C%20Donald%20J.-05.08.2026-278T(2).pdf

Not American here.

I don't like DJT, but i like money.

The way he pumps Dell after increasing his holdings, it is bananas that a president can do that, but he did it without

Do you think everything on the list is gold and that we should move money into it?

The three i am thinking are

Hood

V

PLTR

Here is the list of recent transaction

https://extapps2.oge.gov/201/Presiden.nsf/PAS+Index/405E4EC4E27BE8D185258DF7002DD1C0/$FILE/Trump%2C%20Donald%20J.-05.08.2026-278T(2).pdf

while thing look and feel bad, at least wait this July for the peptides news

If you truly believe in the principle, now is time to buy buy buy, business without fundamental change are trading lower and lower because all the money went into AI

Also factors like tarrifs and high interest rates will likely be gone once Trump is gone

I am slowly loading up, are you?

i knew this quarter will be bad, was going to buy the dip, but now for real have second thoughts

Gross Margin Compression: Profitability is under significant pressure.

EBITDA Halved: Earnings have plummeted 50% year-over-year.

Structural Cash Flow Shift: The transition from a compounder to a GLP-1 vendor has fundamentally altered the balance sheet, with net receivables and accounts payable "exploding" during the pivot.

Management Outlook: On the earnings call, Dudum warned to expect continued margin compression with no clear timeline for stabilization. As a result, the company’s full-year EBITDA guidance is no longer valid.

If we purely look at valuation models

DCF (Discounted Cash Flow)

Base FV: $4991.63

Bear–Bull range: $3730.64 – $6850.05

Margin of safety: 205.30%

FCFE (Free Cash Flow to Equity)

Base FV: $5361.64

Bear–Bull range: $4041.56 – $7299.38

Margin of safety: 227.90%

TL;DR

BUY at $1,635 — trading at 62% discount to $3,856 blended intrinsic value; DCF and FCFE models show 205–228% upside

Exceptional FCF engine: $10.8B TTM free cash flow with 38.9% revenue CAGR and 7/8 quality gates passing

Primary upside: Mercado Pago credit monetization — financial services margin expansion can drive FCF to $20B+ by 2028

Primary risk: Gross margin compression from 50.2% (2023) to 44.5% (2025) — investment cycle or structural mix shift requires monitoring

Monitor quarterly gross margin; sustained below 43% for two consecutive quarters signals structural deterioration, not investment cycle

Situation Overview

MercadoLibre is Latin America's dominant e-commerce marketplace and fintech platform, operating across 18 countries with MercadoLibre (marketplace) and Mercado Pago (payments, credit, and savings) as interlocking flywheels. For a value investor, the durability of the business rests on a multi-sided network that spans sellers, buyers, and financial service users in markets where digital penetration remains materially underpenetrated relative to global peers. The FinTech segment is the emerging value driver — embedding Mercado Pago into the daily financial lives of tens of millions of unbanked or underbanked Latin Americans creates a switching-cost moat that the e-commerce business alone cannot replicate.

Why the Stock Is Undervalued

MELI trades 38.2% below its 52-week high of $2,645 and barely 2.6% above its 52-week low of $1,593 — price action consistent with EM risk-off selling driven by US rate persistence and LatAm currency weakness, not fundamental deterioration. The core mismatch is GAAP-driven: trailing net income of $1.997B produces a P/E of 41.4x that appears expensive, while the economic reality — $10.8B FCF and $12.1B OCF — implies a trailing FCF yield above 13% at the current market cap of $82.9B. Investors anchored to GAAP earnings are systematically mispricing the quality of MELI's earnings, where an OCF/NI ratio of 6.07 indicates GAAP dramatically understates cash generation. This is a temporary mismatch between headline optics and underlying cash economics.

Economic Moat

Moat Width: Wide

Trend: Stable

Sources

Network effects — 18-country marketplace where seller depth attracts buyer volume, which attracts more sellers; dismantling the loop requires a credible alternative ecosystem

Switching costs — Mercado Pago credit, savings, and payment rails embedded in daily financial behavior; credit history and digital wallet lock-in is structurally high

Scale moat — Mercado Envios logistics network creates last-mile cost advantages unavailable to smaller regional competitors

Threats

LatAm currency devaluation — BRL, ARS, and MXN exposure means USD-reported revenue growth understates local-currency momentum but overstates valuation to USD investors during strong-dollar periods

Credit cycle risk — Mercado Pago's credit book expansion in higher-risk EM consumer segments could produce NPL spikes in a regional recession scenario

Sustained breach below 52-week low of $1,593 on volume would signal capitulation and likely trigger algorithmic stop-losses, potentially driving to $1,400–$1,450 before stabilization

Death cross structure (SMA-50 below SMA-200) is already in place; trend-following institutional selling could persist until SMA crossover reversal

Stagflation or deep recession in Brazil/Mexico compresses consumer discretionary spending and spikes Mercado Pago credit defaults simultaneously — the double-hit scenario

US tariff escalation on LatAm trade flows could indirectly slow the regional economic expansion that supports MELI's GMV growth assumptions

EPS consensus growth of 22.2% for current year and 40.7% for next year — aggressive estimates that could disappoint if LatAm FX headwinds intensify

$1650 that's a very attractive price

Global Airlines & Logistics should be one of the coiled springs. Oil prices have been messing with airlines' bottom lines; while oil prices will remain high for a period, the relief from uncertainty should warrant some bounce.

Agriculture too? Fertilizers will be able to ship again。

Who else?