Power Index after week 6

Team Ranking
Queen's Gaels 20.2
Western Mustangs 13.0
McMaster Marauders 10.9
Windsor Lancers 10.1
Guelph Gryphons 8.4
Ottawa Gee-Gees 2.0
Wilfrid Laurier Golden Hawks -0.5
Waterloo Warriors -10.1
Carleton Ravens -15.8
York Lions -19.5
Toronto Varsity Blues -20.7

I suspect there's only one controversial thing here, which is Laurier still being ranked well ahead of Waterloo. The problem is that Waterloo has been blown out so many times this year, including the max 24 points in three of their losses, and their only win other than Laurier was against Carleton. Meanwhile, Laurier has a win against Guelph, and has three losses by one score (two of which were by 2 points) and did manage to get one win by a bunch.

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u/Fast-Secretary-7406 — 10 days ago

OUA power index after week 5

Team Power Index
Queen's Gaels 18.6
Western Mustangs 17.1
McMaster Marauders 11.4
Windsor Lancers 9.0
Guelph Gryphons 6.5
Wilfrid Laurier Golden Hawks 2.8
Ottawa Gee-Gees 2.1
Waterloo Warriors -15.4
York Lions -17.9
Carleton Ravens -18.9
Toronto Varsity Blues -19.5

Preemptive questions:

Queens over Western you say? Mostly due to point differential; Queens is blowing everyone out. Their smallest winning margin so far has been 16 points, while Western has had two one score games. Western does get a boost from a harder schedule, but not enough. The model ranks them very closely anyways.

You really do love Laurier don't you? Eh, I wouldn't say so. They've had a tough schedule and two of their losses were basically coin flip games.

Why is Ottawa so low? They're 3-2, but they only have one really decisive win this year and it was against Toronto. They also got their doors kinda blown off this week.

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u/Fast-Secretary-7406 — 15 days ago

Updated Power Index after week 4

Adjusted the model and some weightings; reduced importance of strength of schedule and added in some value for actual wins and losses. I think it's pretty solid now.

Team Power Index
Western Mustangs 16.6
Queen's Gaels 16.2
McMaster Marauders 12.6
Windsor Lancers 7.9
Ottawa Gee-Gees 4.8
Guelph Gryphons 3.9
Wilfrid Laurier Golden Hawks -0.7
Waterloo Warriors -12.8
Toronto Varsity Blues -16.3
York Lions -16.8
Carleton Ravens -19.2

Probably the only controversial things:

Western over Queens? Queens is 3-0, but have played 3 of the worst 4 teams in the league. Western at least has the Windsor win to give them a little strength of schedule boost.

Why is McMaster a clear step down from those two? They are winning but they aren't beating teams decisively enough for the model's liking.

Windsor rated so highly despite only being 2-2. They've played the #1 and #3 teams both in close games, and won their other two games decisively. They've won one less game than Ottawa, but Ottawa has played two winless teams.

Guelph below Ottawa even though they just beat them; they are ranked pretty closely, but Guelph has a loss to Laurier on the books, and their only other win was against last ranked Carleton, and Ottawa is benefiting from having 3 wins to Guelph's 2.

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u/Fast-Secretary-7406 — 25 days ago

OUA Power index - new formula

After reading (and making) complaints about the OUA rankings, and recognizing that they are mostly caused by putting 50% of the weighting into the Elo system which is extremely flawed, I spent some time with AI building a relatively simple power index sheet that simply factors in point differential (with max 24 per game to avoid overweighting blowouts) and strength of schedule. I inputted the results to date this year and this is what it came out with:

McMaster Marauders 8.0
Windsor Lancers 7.9
Western Mustangs 7.8
Queen's Gaels 5.2
Guelph Gryphons 3.1
Wilfrid Laurier Golden Hawks 2.3
Ottawa Gee-Gees 1.2
Waterloo Warriors -2.3
Toronto Varsity Blues -4.0
York Lions -9.2
Carleton Ravens -17.1

Still not perfect as obviously some teams have only played a couple of games and who you've played has a heavy impact (eg, Toronto is being rated decently because they've played only decent teams so far, while Western has only 2 games to accumulate points), but this to me is a lot closer to reality than what the OUA is putting out. It also creates a prediction tool, which suggested the following for week 4:

Home Away Predicted Winner Margin of victory
Waterloo Warriors Windsor Lancers Windsor Lancers 7
Carleton Ravens Queen's Gaels Queen's Gaels 19
Toronto Varsity Blues Western Mustangs Western Mustangs 15
McMaster Marauders Wilfrid Laurier Golden Hawks McMaster Marauders 9
Ottawa Gee-Gees Guelph Gryphons Ottawa Gee-Gees 1
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u/Fast-Secretary-7406 — 29 days ago

Montreal/Laval don't care so I don't either

Montreal and Laval have basically gobbled up all the top players from Quebec for decades and squashed the other teams in the RSEQ without any regard to what it means to the future of the league, so I propose having no regard for their future anymore. Let's merge the RSEQ and OUA and leave them out.

First, I'm folding either York or Toronto. I appreciate what the new coaches there are trying to do, but it's hard to look at either of those programs and see them as viable. If it was up to me, I'd probably keep York as they seem to be actively working to improve, while Toronto is slowly fading away. Maybe they can form some kind of merge team as the GTA Blue Lions.

East Division

  • Concordia Stingers
  • McGill Redbirds
  • Sherbrooke Vert & Or
  • Bishop's Gaiters
  • Ottawa Gee-Gees
  • Carleton Ravens
  • Queen's Gaels

West Division

  • York Lions/Toronto Varsity Blues
  • McMaster Marauders
  • Guelph Gryphons
  • Laurier Golden Hawks
  • Waterloo Warriors
  • Western Mustangs
  • Windsor Lancers

In your 8 game season, you play one game against everyone in your division, plus one home and one away "crossover game".

For playoffs, you can choose: top four from each conference, or what I like even better: everyone makes it, and top seed in each conference gets a bye. You play down each division until there's a winner, and the YatesDunsmore is East vs West champion.

Montreal and Laval and play an 11 game season against only each other for all I care. You can call it sour grapes or whatever you want but I am 100% certain that this duoply is holding back football in Quebec, and probably in Usports as well.

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u/Fast-Secretary-7406 — 1 month ago

OUA TV - this needs to get better

I have watched quite a bit of oua.tv football this week and last and I'm just super disappointed with it. There's three elements to a broadcast:

1 - The stream has to be good quality and work. Guelph bombed this yesterday, and there was a similar problem last week in the Windsor-Mac game.

2 - The announcers should at least be passable. The U of T guys were atrocious, not knowing basic rules of the game.

3- The production and cameras should be decent; I'll grant that these stadiums are not designed for TV cameras so sometimes you're kind of stuck with what you're stuck with, but some of the people running these broadcasts seem to think they're Martin Scorsese with weird camera angles and switching views, and having someone running the camera who's actually following the action on the field is a must. Replays are a really nice to have.

I will mention a few good ones:

Guelph production and announcers were really good - this should be the target for people to aim towards. Windsor's announcer was pretty solid though he could probably use a color guy with him. Laurier's feed should be the baseline that every team tries to reach as a minimum - decent cameras, decent angles, good announcer. Mac's cameras and announcers were really good.

Let's hope it's just early season kinks being worked out, but I cannot say that I'm optimistic.

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u/Fast-Secretary-7406 — 1 month ago

Queens at Toronto

Not sure how it'll end up, but Toronto is looking mildly feisty. 7-2 Queens at the end of the first.

The PBP announcers on this game doesn't appear to have watched much football before IMO - he is regularly losing track of down and distance or missing action, and trying to shout excitement instead of just describing the action (eg, he just said Queens was going for it on 3rd and 5 from the 10 yard line when it was clearly 1st and 10).

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u/Fast-Secretary-7406 — 2 months ago

Carleton at york

York football team looking good

York football broadcast horrible. Default camera appears to be shooting wide angle from the moon, and the color commentary sounds like he's on Jupiter. This isn't free to watch anymore guys, step it up.

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u/Fast-Secretary-7406 — 2 months ago

Most Oilersy Oilers draft pick ever

Drafted 41st overall by the Oilers in 1997: Patrick Dovigi (G)

Why did the Oilers draft him so high?

Coming off their slam dunk Michael Riesen in the first round, they follow up with Dovigi in the second round because of ...honestly, no idea. He was 6'1". He had a 3.88 GAA and .878 sv% in the OHL. with a W-L record of 11-14-2. Both his GAA and SV% were worse than the other goalie on the team. They were coming off the Marchant G7 OT winner to upset Dallas, meaning they had CuJo in net with Bob Essensa as backup so this wasn't a "need" pick.

How did he do as a pro?

He made it to two ECHL games, where he gave up 13 goals. Then back to the OHL for a bit, then a season in what eventally became the OJHL where his only recorded stat was 46 PIM in 32 game.

And once he left the Oilers?

Founded Green For Life Environmental Inc. (GFL). Under Dovigi's leadership, GFL Environmental has grown to have a total enterprise value of $5.13 billion as of April 2018. In 2017, Dovigi's net worth was estimated at $1.08 billion. In 2018, GFL merged with Waste Industries, increasing Dovigi's net worth to more than $1 billion.

The only saving grace?

It's not like they passed on someone awesome who went right after. The next 5 picks played a combined 49 NHL games.

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u/Fast-Secretary-7406 — 2 months ago

McDavid comparison - fair or not?

Two players in their first 11 seasons:

Player A: 7 scoring titles
Player B: 7 scoring titles

Player A: Playoff game record: 55-42
Player B: Playoff game record: 63-52

Player A: Playoff series record: 9-7
Player B: Playoff series record: 13-8

Player A: 5 different head coaches
Player B: 6 different head coaches

Player A is (obviously) McDavid. Player B is Wilt Chamberlain. Both came in and were lauded as the most talented player the world had ever seen, both immediately started establishing themselves as a statistical monster towering over the league, both were regularly noted for playing for organizations that didn't properly support them with surrounding cast, and quite often both were criticized for not having a more well rounded game that would contribute to winning.

There's some differences of course (notably that Wilt had 1 championship in that time, and that Wilt was a notoriously difficult teammate), but the historical parallel stuck out to me.

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u/Fast-Secretary-7406 — 3 months ago

Waterloo vs Laurier at the CFL level

Hamilton and Winnipeg have both lost their QB to injury, so tonight's game is now going to be decided by Tre Ford vs Taylor Elgersma

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u/Fast-Secretary-7406 — 3 months ago

Something that occurred to me

Most people are familiar with the episode of the Big Bang Theory where Amy confounds Sheldon with the concept that Indiana Jones could be removed from Raiders of the Lost Ark and the same thing would have happened.

Is the same thing true with Brian O'Conner in the first Fast and Furious movie?

The major event is the race and subsequent police breakup. No Brian? No police, no issues getting back to the fort.

Next is Race Wars. Jesse still gets overconfident and loses his ride to Johnny, and refuses to pay up.

Next is the final heist. The trucker still fights back and chases off the heist crew. Maybe with no Brian, Vince dies on the side of the road, but not certain.

Next is the drive by. Maybe Brian slightly inflamed the rivalry between Dom and Johnny, but it seemed pretty hot anyways.

Finally, Dom destroys his car and gets Brian's car to escape. WIth no Brian, Dom doesn't do the final race and wreck his car.

Did Brian play any relevant part in the first movie?

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u/Fast-Secretary-7406 — 4 months ago

Subtle funny bit from Here comes treble

Erin convinces the group to sing "Faith" for Andy. However, the group objects that it's super old, the old people like it, and they don't know it. When they play it, it's introduced as one from olden times. Faith came out in 1987.

However their standard set apparently includes Car Wash (1976), Karma Chameleon (1982), and Monster Mash (1962). The only song they play newer than Faith is I'll be, which came out 1 year after Faith.

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u/Fast-Secretary-7406 — 4 months ago