u/FrankScaramucci

1. People use "ETF" as a synonym for "stock ETF". Someone asks where to invest 50k and gets a reply that they should just put it into an ETF. But which ETF? Bonds, gold, oil, real estate, Bitcoin, something else? It's like when someone asks for summer vacation tips and you tell them they should travel by plane.

2. Some people don't understand the very simple concept of net worth. They say that their net worth is $1M and later it turns out that it's just their portfolio, home equity is not included.

3. Some people think that the US stock market has historically outperformed the European stock market, therefore it's a better investment. I mean, do they think other investors can't see this very obvious fact? Why assume that this is not priced in?

4. Some people expect a 10% annualized total return of S&P 500 based on extrapolating history. But reality is more complicated. The fact that the US has exceeded expectations in the past doesn't mean it will do so in the future. The 10% return mixes real return and inflation.

Pro jednoho člověka. "Spokojený život", lze samozřejmě chápat různě, použijte subjektivní interpretaci, co si pod tím instinktivně představíte.

For example, if you're aiming for 1x of average net wage, you will be living like someone who earns the average wage, spends all of it (saves nothing), and doesn't own a home.

As an example, in the Czech Republic, the average net wage is €1684. If you don't work, you also have to pay €136 for health insurance. So to have the lifestyle of someone who earns the average wage, rents and spends 100% of their income, you need €1684 + €136 = €1820. At a 4% SWR you need a €546k portfolio.

The reason I'm asking this is that I often see claims such as retiring with €1M plus a home (so maybe €1.5M) is almost poverty these days. So I wonder, is it because of:

• a higher cost of living
• people consider the average wage barely survivable (most people earn less than that and don't spend it fully)
• people aim for a lower SWR than 4%

Just an observation, I notice that there's a quiet assumption that Waymo will just keep scaling their robotaxis and stay in that lane. But IMO it's almost certain that Waymo will offer an easy-to-integrate package for car makers that will probably be priced at under $10k and integrated into the car. It could be something similar to the most recent system by Rivian. The big question is what is the timeline and path to get there.