u/Fwoggie2

• The ECMWF model is currently projecting 27c for 0600 next Thursday for central London (the current UK record for warmest minimum temperature is London Heathrow - 22.6C on 20 July 2016)

• Meanwhile the UKV model projects the air temperature heat peaking at 35-39c on Thursday (the current June max temp UK record is 35.6c last set in Southampton 28th June 1976)

• CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy, an indicator of atmospheric instability, is projected by ECMWF to potentially exceed 7000 j/kg - these levels are exceptionally rare in the UK, instead mostly being seen only in the US plains. It flags a potential risk of supercells developing - albeit only if the troposphere is cold enough which this heat dome may not allow to happen.

• Wet bulb temperature projections on the Swiss-MRF model are over 25c in the worst affected areas at the peak each day for Tues-Thurs this coming week. This is the critical threshold for vulnerable populations (elderly, infants, or individuals with chronic illnesses). It is also the point where anyone performing moderate to heavy physical labor or outdoor sports faces an exceptionally high risk of heat exhaustion and heatstroke.

They haven't done it yet, but the UK Met Office might issue a red weather warning closer to the event (only 16 have been issued anywhere in the UK in the past decade).

Doing so triggers automatic mass disruption at significant expense; hospitals will cancel routine appointments, some rail lines will suspend all operations, the government will activate the national emergency alert systems to mobile phones. As a result the Met Office usually waits until 12-24 hours before the event hits to make sure the models lock in a 100% certainty of the weather event occurring.

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Edit 22/06: ### The UK Met Office has now issued a red weather warning as expected

Love you all ❤️

(Edit: also it doesn't have to be hot for UV to be very strong - they're not 100% aligned to one another. You can have a relatively cool day and still have really high UV).

Hi America, late 40s well travelled Irish/Brit here with a polite question please.

I was reading this morning that yesterday (Sunday) was flag day which is a new thing to me. As with other countries around the world I do my best to keep up with who and what the US is. There's so much to learn about the US; Ellis Island, the emancipation proclamation, Custer's last stand, the Prohibition era, Midway, Challenger (I remember watching that one live), Rodney King riots etc etc. But flag day is new to me.

I obviously know the 13 stripes are for the original founding states and there's currently 50 stars for the 50 states you have today, but what is flag day meant to be about please? I don't think it's a federal holiday?

PS - if you ever go to Boston MS the independence trail is absolutely fascinating as is JFKs presidential library, I loved both.

(Subject to weather conditions of course)

This article is written to deep dive a company called Genoil (which you'd expect given Morningstar is a well regarded global investment research and financial services firm) but it has interesting viewpoints for aviation supply chain

• US jet fuel supply levels will drop to 21 days before the end of this month, the lowest since 1963

• Lufthansa has cancelled 20,000 flights and grounded 27 short haul planes as it moves to conserve fuel

• American Airlines is warning of a $4bn hit in extra fuel costs and is cutting routes and raising prices

• Air NZ now expects a $390m NZD loss for 2026

By far the most interesting factoid though is about Ryanair. I quote directly:

Europe's largest airline by passenger volume - has begun cancelling and axing routes from 19 airports across Spain, Portugal, France, Belgium, and Germany, cutting over 3 million seats from its European schedule. The significance of this cannot be overstated: Ryanair is hedged at approximately 80% of its summer fuel at $668 per metric ton - meaning it has locked-in contract prices for most of its fuel supply. Yet it is still cutting routes. This is a critical warning signal: when an airline that is 80% hedged is nonetheless cancelling flights, it strongly suggests that the futures market is failing to deliver physical product at contracted prices. A hedge is a paper contract - if the physical fuel cannot be sourced to fulfil it, the contract defaults. Ryanair's CFO has described an "armageddon" contingency plan, warning that weaker European carriers "may not survive" the jet fuel crisis. The fact that even the most hedged, most cost-efficient carrier in Europe is pulling capacity is the clearest possible evidence that this is a physical supply failure, not merely a pricing problem.

This is at odds with formal PR statements from airlines:

• Air France-KLM flags secure summer jet fuel supply

And the EU commissioner for sustainable transport Apostolos Tzitzikostas who told Reuters this week "There is currently no jet fuel shortage in Europe. We have no signs that we will have a shortage in the coming period."

Still, could be an early red flag of serious problems to come if the Hormuz situation doesn't resolve soon.

• Air freight capacity has tightened across Middle East routes

• Sea port congestion is spreading across Africa and beyond

Statistics relating to the above observations:

• Air freight costs for vaccines from India to Ethiopia, Nigeria, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo are up 50 to 70 percent.

• Trucking costs for Ready-to-Use Therapeutic Food, or RUTF, from Kenya manufacturers to Somalia, South Sudan, and the DRC are up 30 percent.

• Sea freight for education materials from China to Yemen and Mozambique are up 100 to 150 percent. 

• Rerouting polio vaccines for 12m children was an extra 56%.

• In Mali budgets for health, education, WASH (WAter Sanitation and Hygiene) and child protection programs are having to be drawn from to pay for increased transport costs.

Container shipping rates are surging to new heights.

• Far East to W Coast USA has hit over $3900 per FEU (Forty Foot Equivalent container, a standard measurement for container shipping, that's 109% higher than pre conflict rates

• Far East to E Coast USA spot rate is up 92% to $5300, a 92% increase.

• Rates for Far East to N Europe and the Med are up 65% and 51% respectively

• There are signs that peak season shipping for the Christmas retail season has begun early for some retailers as they try to position goods in market ahead of expected tariff changes in the US

What does this all mean - to paraphrase a well known movie quote, Inflation. Lots of inflation. 🕶️