u/GPA_Guam

ADVISORY TO THE PUBLIC
GPA’s Restoration Process After a Storm

(Fadian, Mangilao) – Guam Power Authority (GPA) advises the public that immediately after passage of Typhoon Bavi and once high winds subside to a safe level, GPA will mobilize our teams to proceed with assessments and repairs. This will begin the recovery phase of the island-wide power system around Guam.

Critical restoration priorities include hospitals, critical healthcare centers, water wells and wastewater facilities, critical infrastructure facilities e.g., communications, schools/shelters, public safety/health and ports of entry. Restoring these facilities supports essential services and allows broader recovery efforts to begin. As critical infrastructure is brought back online, crews will continue to restore main circuits and neighborhoods and across affected areas.

Updates on power restoration will be provided to media, Office of Homeland Security/Office of Civil Defense, and posted on GPA’s social media pages and website.

Following the passage of the typhoon, customers may report non-emergency power issues—such as damaged weatherheads, internal electrical damage requiring Emergency Work Clearances, or inquiries about service restoration—to the GPA Customer Call Center at (671) 647-5787/8/9, by email at customersfirst@gpagwa.com, or by sending a direct message to GPA's Facebook page. The Customer Call Center will operate 24/7 throughout the post-typhoon recovery period.

Please contact to GPA’s 24-hour Trouble Dispatch for power situations such as downed live (energized/sparking) power lines, broken power poles, or blown transformers. Please stay away from all down lines and equipment as they may still be energized and can cause harm if you come in contact with the lines or equipment. Consider such situations as dangerous and life threatening. Immediately report power situations to GPA's 24-Hour Trouble Dispatch at 671-475-1472/3/4. Please provide exact location or address, contact information and condition of location.

As power restoration progresses and communications systems are restored, GPA’s smart grid and SCADA systems will provide detailed information on outage locations. These systems allow GPA to confirm where power has been restored, identify customers still without service, and locate smaller outage pockets within villages.

Once again, safety remains the top priority and the crews are prepared to immediately begin key assessments and restoration efforts as soon as winds decrease to a safe level.

The forecasted typhoon track on Zoom Earth reflects the latest official update from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Just sharing to people who are interested in following the storm’s progress.

GPT-5.5 Analysis (set to high intelligence)

JTWC Warning #10 Analysis – Typhoon Bavi

Summary
Bavi is about 627 miles east of Andersen AFB.

It has continued moving almost due west at about 13 mph.

Maximum significant wave height is about 39 feet.

The forecast track is little changed from Warning #9.
Closest approach to the Marianas is still expected around 05/22:00 UTC, which is about Monday 8:00 AM Guam/CNMI time.

Bavi is still forecast to rapidly intensify to around 175 mph.

After about 36 hours, increasing wind shear and a possible eyewall replacement cycle may limit further strengthening and cause gradual weakening.

Track confidence remains high for the next 3 days.
What Changed From Warning #9?

Main change: Not much. This is more of a confirmation update than a major shift.

Track: Mostly unchanged.

Intensity: Still forecast to peak near 175 mph.

Steering: Still controlled by the subtropical ridge.

Timing: Closest approach remains around Monday
morning.

Model spread: Still fairly tight, except NAVGEM remains a southern outlier.

Track / Steering Pattern
Bavi is still moving almost due west because of the subtropical ridge to the northwest/north.

The important part:
For the next 36 hours, the storm should keep a mainly westward movement.

After 36 hours, it is still forecast to turn west-northwest.

That means the key question remains:
How long does Bavi keep moving west before turning west-northwest?

Longer west movement = more risk for Rota/Guam

Earlier west-northwest turn = more risk for Tinian/Saipan

Right now, JTWC says there is little deviation from the previous forecast track, so this update does not show another major southward shift.

Intensity / Wind Shear
Rapid intensification is expected to continue for about 36 more hours.

Peak intensity forecast remains around 175 mph.
Wind shear is expected to increase to around 22 mph by 60 hours.

By 5 days, wind shear may increase to around 35–40 mph.

That shear, combined with a possible eyewall replacement cycle, should eventually limit strengthening and cause gradual weakening.

Model Guidance
Most models remain in a fairly tight group.
NAVGEM is the main southern outlier and suggests a track south of Rota.

The rest of the guidance has a spread of about 69 miles at 3 days and 86 miles at 5 days.
JTWC remains close to the multi-model consensus.
Track confidence is high through 3 days and medium after that.

Island Risk Assessment
Personal interpretation based on JTWC Warning #10 — not official JTWC probabilities.

🇬🇺** Guam
Direct eyewall risk: Low to Moderate
Estimated direct-hit chance: ~8–15%
Overall impact risk: High
Trend from #9: ➡️ About the same / maybe slightly better
Assessment: Guam is still not in the most likely eyewall path, but risk is not zero. A longer westward motion or a southward model shift would increase Guam’s risk. Even without a direct hit, Guam can still see strong winds, heavy rain, dangerous surf, and possible power outages.

🇲🇵** Rota
Direct eyewall risk: Moderate to High
Estimated direct-hit chance: ~25–35%
Overall impact risk: Very High
Trend from #9: ➡️ About the same
Assessment: Rota remains in a dangerous position. The official track is not dramatically farther south, but Rota is close enough that a small shift could bring much worse conditions.

🇲🇵** Tinian
Direct eyewall risk: Very High
Estimated direct-hit chance: ~35–45%
Overall impact risk: Extreme
Trend from #9: ➡️ About the same
Assessment: Tinian remains one of the highest-risk islands. The forecast corridor still supports a very close pass or possible eyewall impact.

🇲🇵** Saipan
Direct eyewall risk: High to Very High
Estimated direct-hit chance: ~30–40%
Overall impact risk: Extreme
Trend from #9: ➡️ About the same
Assessment: Saipan remains at serious risk. Even if the center passes south, the wind field may expand due to an eyewall replacement cycle, meaning dangerous conditions can still reach Saipan.

Bottom Line
Warning #10 does not show a major new shift. It confirms the dangerous scenario from Warning #9: Bavi is still moving west, still forecast to become an extremely intense typhoon near 175 mph, and still expected to pass near the Rota–Tinian–Saipan corridor.

For Guam, the direct-hit risk remains lower than the CNMI, but it is not zero. For Rota, Tinian, and Saipan, this remains a serious and potentially dangerous situation.
The next thing to watch is whether Bavi continues west longer than expected or starts turning west-northwest on schedule.