Mentions are a scam
TLDR: mentions suck
This concerns the weekly bet for Trump mentions that closes each Monday at 12:00 am (Sunday midnight). Normally, Kalshi confirms something within a hour if Trump says something and the mention is verified and closed or 99%/1%.
Last night "Bibi/Netanyahu" was open with one day to go - the odds were 90% yes, 10% no. The contract closed on 8/17/26 at 12:00 am.
I did my usual searches with Google, ChatGPT, Claude, and Reddit. There was one mention in an Axios article from 8/14/26 where two sources were quoted as saying that Trump said "Bibi is his own worst enemy". The rules for the contract says "The word or phrase must be stated by Doanld Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts."
So, after some thought I saw the mention had not closed based on the article on 8/14/26 and was still trading - now at 3% "no". Reading the language "direct quotes published by Source Agencies" made me think that quotes from sources did not count - aka legal hearsay. I also checked with the Kalshi bot that said "Mention markets typically rely on the strict, literal usage of the word or phrase purchased, and the target word(s) usually must be said by the specific person(s) named in the rules. For instance, if the rules define the speaker as the "Announcers," words spoken by someone else, such as a referee, would not qualify toward settlement. There can be additional contingencies—the official televised stream may be the only resolution source, or previous recordings aired during the event may not count—so review the full rules. The final determination is always governed by the definitions and source agencies on the market's Rules page."
So, I concluded I was good and put in a $1000 bet that would have paid $25,000. The contract closed and didn't immediately update. It did at 7 this morning, or seven hours after it closed which is atypical, and Kalshi concluded the Axios article counted, which means I lost. I had to make many demands to the Kalshi bot for a human response, which I finally got and they simply said the ruling was final. It was probably another bot posing as a person.
So, anonymous sources saying that someone said something is a "yes" confirmation according to Kalshi as long as it's printed. Kalshi let the bet stay open until the contract expired, then changed it to 99%/1%.
What BS. I'm done with Kalshi. Back to stocks only.