r/Polymarket_news

They have locked up thousands for a month now. They have all documentation. They do not have a phone number and do not respond. Use Kalshi.

TLDR: mentions suck

This concerns the weekly bet for Trump mentions that closes each Monday at 12:00 am (Sunday midnight). Normally, Kalshi confirms something within a hour if Trump says something and the mention is verified and closed or 99%/1%.

Last night "Bibi/Netanyahu" was open with one day to go - the odds were 90% yes, 10% no. The contract closed on 8/17/26 at 12:00 am.

I did my usual searches with Google, ChatGPT, Claude, and Reddit. There was one mention in an Axios article from 8/14/26 where two sources were quoted as saying that Trump said "Bibi is his own worst enemy". The rules for the contract says "The word or phrase must be stated by Doanld Trump in public statements, direct quotes published by Source Agencies, or written public statements on his personal social media accounts."

So, after some thought I saw the mention had not closed based on the article on 8/14/26 and was still trading - now at 3% "no". Reading the language "direct quotes published by Source Agencies" made me think that quotes from sources did not count - aka legal hearsay. I also checked with the Kalshi bot that said "Mention markets typically rely on the strict, literal usage of the word or phrase purchased, and the target word(s) usually must be said by the specific person(s) named in the rules. For instance, if the rules define the speaker as the "Announcers," words spoken by someone else, such as a referee, would not qualify toward settlement. There can be additional contingencies—the official televised stream may be the only resolution source, or previous recordings aired during the event may not count—so review the full rules. The final determination is always governed by the definitions and source agencies on the market's Rules page."

So, I concluded I was good and put in a $1000 bet that would have paid $25,000. The contract closed and didn't immediately update. It did at 7 this morning, or seven hours after it closed which is atypical, and Kalshi concluded the Axios article counted, which means I lost. I had to make many demands to the Kalshi bot for a human response, which I finally got and they simply said the ruling was final. It was probably another bot posing as a person.

So, anonymous sources saying that someone said something is a "yes" confirmation according to Kalshi as long as it's printed. Kalshi let the bet stay open until the contract expired, then changed it to 99%/1%.

What BS. I'm done with Kalshi. Back to stocks only.

Made a bunch of predictions, Max, Otani, Friedman… some hits, some bases, some runs.. at the end of the game, when the market closed I was up on several bet that were going to be paid out.

I called about not being able to execute a sale on my predictions for Susaki strikeouts when I was up on a 19% odds bet.. would’ve been somewhere close to $300 (substantial for a small fish like me..)

Well, the market for this prediction was still over before he was taken out of the game. I attempted to close my position several times and each time I did it said I would owe Coinbase money and not collect any profit.

I went back to the main screen refreshed, and it still showed me to be winning the bet I tried to execute again and it happened a second time. I couldn’t even withdraw the initial funds that I put into the prediction.

After making contact and voicing by concern, providing screenshots in real time after the end of the game and the market closed, I noticed that my other winning bets started to disappear completely from record and other winning bets changing to lost even though the player fulfilled what the contract should’ve been.. continued to screenshot everything and document(lucky for me. I still have all of the original photographs and screen recordings.)

The Support ticket said it needed to be escalated and when I called today and sat on the phone for two hours, I recorded the entire conversation and they continually tried to gaslight me saying that I was incorrect and that Friedman as well as some other contracts didn’t complete the necessary requirements to be paid out.

I even went onto the MLB website and took screenshots of the play-by-play to prove to them that they didn’t know what they were talking about.

after speaking to the people in Bangladesh, I finally got a appointment for this coming Monday with a one-on-one interview to discuss it.. wondering if there’s any lawyers out there that would want to jump on all of our issues prove that Coinbase is stealing from us?

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I've found conflicting information on this. I haven't found any comment online of someone saying they were unable to withdraw, but that's the only thing I'm worried about.

Like trying to withdraw and then them asking for KYC, seeing I'm in a blocked country and keeping my money (FWIW we're talking less than 100k in port, about 10k trades quant betting)

Built a tool with so far a 51-54% win rate on btc and eth 15mn. And 60-65% win rate on SOL which seems to be the highest at the moment. XRP is 48-50% and so far the worse performance.

Looking for some legitimate ideas on building a community around it and also wondering the impact it may have since those 15mn books are thin most times. Like wouldn't publicizing the tool ruin the edge?

And for context, i auto execute market maker orders and some days the fill rate is under 50%. And the unfilled orders have a 70% win rate but have difficulty getting filled.

Edit: Market Maker orders are placed at 0.40-0.60. Average RR 2:1

Is there any tool or indiactor which give us candle direction up or down