u/GreninjaStrike

It’s easy to understand why Dems and leftists care so much about the guy. He hates Trump and his no votes are a great fifth column for the Dems. But how do you think that bodes for the people in his district? People who overwhelmingly voted for Trump. If you can’t see why Massie lost then I don’t know what to say. Sinema broke with Dems and paid the price. So will Fetterman. Massie isn’t any different. Why have a guy who’s busy stirring up shit and votes how you want him 80% of the time when you can have a guy who votes how you want 100% of the time. Seriously why should Republicans in his district care. He voted no on the BBB which republicans support. He’s spent a bunch of time talking conspiracy theories with Khanna (imagine if your fav progressive started being all buddy buddy with Paul Gosar). Massie’s theories and persistence didn’t actually result in anything except a bunch of unverifiable info. Nothing in the files can be used as evidence unless we get witnesses, records, videos, something of the sort. Until the victims file suit and give us eyewitness accounts that can be cross referenced it’s gonna be hard to put anyone behind bars. Not to mention the 4 guys whose names that got read off and hadn’t even met Epstein. This was an issue for republicans and specifically his district to figure out. So if you’re saying vote blue no matter who this fall, you really shouldn’t be throwing stones about the Massie thing.

Why not look ahead. Also, 2028 has a lot more competitive races than 2026

THE VERY POSSIBLE FLIPS

Pennsylvania -Fetterman (D): I’d say this is the most competitive seat. It’s a 50/50 state and Fetterman likely faces a primary challenger. Both sides have deep benches with good candidates. If Fetterman runs as an independent then I can’t predict anything. An expensive primary could hurt Dems in the general. This one will be mostly dependent on candidate quality and the coattails of the presidential election.

Wisconsin - Johnson (R): All signs point to Johnson retiring. That sets up a free for all in a very competitive state. Both sides have deep benches as well. Ron Johnson has been kryptonite for Wisconsin Dems, if he chooses not to run then this would be a great opportunity.

Nevada - CCM (D): The only incumbent besides Fetterman I think that deserves this tier. CCM is not as strong of an incumbent as others. Without Dobbes, she would’ve lost in 2022. The Nevada GOP has a decent bench they can run against her. If the state stays red in 2028 then it’s hard to see her drastically outrunning the dem nominee for president. I’d say it’s a tossup.

THE “IT DEPENDS” TIER

Ohio - TBD: If Husted wins this year then he’s safe. However, if Brown wins then this becomes the most hotly contested seat of the cycle. Brown got doomed by the coattails of Trump in 2024 and a Republican is almost certain to carry Ohio in 2028. So if Brown wins this year, he’s going to have to figure out how to get a lot of crossover votes. Lf course if Husted wins then none of this matters.

Arizona - Kelly (D): Even if Arizona goes red in 2028, Kelly could still pull out a win. Though without Kari Lake maybe the Arizona GOP has a shot. Here’s the thing, Kelly has openly flirted with the idea of running for president. If he gets far enough I could see him choosing not to run again and going all in on the White House. In that case, an open seat in Arizona would be a jackpot for the GOP. Assuming of course that Kari Lake escaped containment in Jamaica.

Alaska - Murkowski (R): How much of a challenge will Murkowski face in 2028 is the question. I’m sure someone will try and outflank her from the right, but who? Murkowski could find herself extremely vulnerable (particularly if Begich challenges her) or not at all. If Murkowski does lose her primary, does she then run as an independent. Or if Peltola loses this fall, could Murkowski support her running against the person who defeated her in the primary in 2028? These are questions.

THE INCUMBENT WITH AN ADVANTAGE TIER

NC - Budd (R): Budd has avoided controversy since his election to the senate. He hasn’t rocked the boat too much or done much wrong. Senators like that are usually hard to knock off. Even moreso because the NC dems don’t have another star like Cooper to go against Budd. There’s other guys, sure, but nobody like Cooper. I think it’ll be competitive but I think Budd still holds an advantage here.

Georgia - Warnock(D): Kinda the same deal with Budd. He reps a swing state but he has an incumbency advantage and is relatively well liked. Of course if Republicans can make it happen, Governor Brian Kemp could turn this race on its side if he runs. Even if he doesn’t then there are guys like Rep McCormick or Collins who could be decent nominees.

New Hampshire - Hassan (D): Hassan is definitely the safest of the 3. However, the New Hampshire GOP has some cards up their sleeves. Former Governor Sununu probably doesn’t run, but if he does then it’s a jackpot. Assuming former Senator Sununu loses this fall, he could always try again in 2028. The real golden goose is if they can convince Governor Ayotte to run for her old seat. I want to see this happen just because the revenge arc would be 👌

For me it’s Spencer Cox. This guy has been one of the most moderate governors in the nation despite representing a ruby red state. Yet he’s bucked the party multiple times. He’s called out President Trump for not being a unifier. He didn’t vote for Trump in 2016 or 2020. He asked him to resign over J6. He supports pride month and banning conversion therapy. He voted against banning trans ppl in women’s sports, which was shocking given that it’s been an easy wedge issue for republicans and the state is very socially conservative.

Which is why I’m shocked he turned heel. After the state Supreme Court voted against a 4R-0D congressional map (which there’s a legal reason why it can’t be done) and struck down an abortion ban (this one I was shocked by since it didn’t violate anything wrong in my eyes) Cox went demon mode. He’s stripped the Supreme Court of the right to choose its own Chief Justice, that’s Cox’s decision now. He expanded the court to include 2 new justices, which of course he will get to fill. Most recently, he pressured one of the justices to resign, threatening an investigation into her personal affairs. I’d expect this from Abbott or DeSantis but Cox!

Judging how courts will vote based on partisan makeup is usually pretty hard to do. They can typically be persuaded with the right arguments. They aren’t as hard partisans as you’d think. Just look at some of the decisions they’ve made

Virginia’s Supreme Court just struck down their gerrymander. What people seem to overlook is that the court actually did side with Dems on a case brought by the RNC. It was a case brought by Virginia delegates that got it struck down, and that was just because procedural rules were broken.

Wyoming’s Supreme Court struck down an abortion ban. Wyoming, the state with as many dems as they have wizards or dragons.

Utah just unanimously granted Dems a seat with an all R Supreme Court. Cox’s court packing only adds 2 more seats which won’t even matter considering multiple Cox appointees voted to grant the Dems a seat.

Then you have states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin where the state supreme courts are extremely partisan and dem biased even though the states are basically evenly split. I think it’s because the judges are elected instead of appointed, which tends to favor Dems. NC is the inverse of this, partisan judicial elections have strongly favored republicans.

The States that will never redraw group

Michigan: Divided government, a lack of desire to redraw among the citizens, and an overwhelmingly supported independent commission makes it basically impossible to see Michigan gerrymandering 2030

Arizona: See Michigan above and apply it here. Independent maps are pretty good for the republicans and the state democrats won’t push a gerrymander even if they get a full government. It would never pass a referendum

Pennsylvania: Dems would need to hold their one seat majority in the state house and flip the state senate to even get to this point. Even if they do I don’t see them redistricting just cause of how competitive the state is. The state Supreme Court struck down a gerrymander last decade.

The it’s dependent on how elections go group

Georgia: Kemp doesn’t want to redistrict right now because he feels it’ll damage Republican prospects for this fall. If republicans sweep this year though, expect a gerrymander in 2030.

Nevada: The Dems drew a solid gerrymander for the decade. However, if they can’t beat Lombardo this fall or regain their supermajority in the legislature then fair maps will be here in 2030.

Iowa: Republicans either need supermajorities or maintain their trifecta in order to shore up Nunn’s and MMM’s seats. Rob Sand winning this fall could really shake up things.

Indiana: I debated moving them into the very likely group given how many anti gerrymandering state senators lost their primaries. I’ll wait to see how the state senate election turns out this fall. If the pro gerrymandering faction gets a majority then expect a redraw.

Wisconsin: I doubt they redraw early but I do think that if either side wins a trifecta there will be a gerrymander.

Minnesota: Currently it’s a divided government but if Dems flip the state house blue and hold the state senate then they’ll almost certainly redraw.

The very likely to gerrymander at some point

Kansas: A Republican is almost certain to win the governors mansion this fall. Once that happens they’ll draw out Davids.

Colorado: It’s a very blue state with a very easy workaround to redraw. They aren’t going to tolerate having 4 or 3 GOP house reps.

The southern states: South Carolina, Alabama, Mississippi, and Kentucky will all probably join Tennessee and Louisiana at some point soon.

The northeast states: Maine, Maryland, New Jersey, and New York all probably redraw. I could see New Hampshire drawing a redder house seat come 2030 and I’m pretty confident they’ll maintain their trifecta.

Nebraska: Especially if Maine draws to give the Dems an easy electoral vote. Assuming a Republican doesn’t win Bacon’s seat, I think they’ll redraw.

Utah: Cox was pretty mad about the court forcing him to make a blue seat in Salt Lake City. I imagine he’s gonna try and get that referendum overturned. Given the state’s partisan lean I think it could succeed.

Ohio: It probably won’t be this decade, but I assume there will be a more aggressive gerrymander by 2030. Even if Acton wins, I think the state house and senate will have supermajorities just cause of how gerrymandered they are.

Everyone else is either maxed out (Illinois, Oregon, Oklahoma, etc) or a 1 seat state

So basically anything later this year or most likely next year. If you think a government will collapse soon and elections will follow then that’s acceptable.

French Presidential and legislative elections: So France is in a bit of a bind. President Macron is super unpopular and his sinking approval ratings have taken the centrists down with him. That’s led to the rise of the far right and far left. National Rally, the main far right party, has been the ones most benefiting from this. It’s extremely likely that their charismatic young leader, Jordan Bardella, will make it through the first round of the presidential election, he’s polling well ahead of the 2nd place. In an election against the far left he wins. Against the center or center right it’s more of a toss up. Don’t be shocked if the far left manages to sneak into 2nd place and make it to the 2nd round, it’s very possible. If he wins, Bardella would become the face of far right politics in Europe and possibly worldwide.

Spain general election: Here’s another very unpopular leader. PM Pedro Sanchez needed a coalition with regional parties to win another term. Now that coalition and his left wing party are collapsing in the polls. The most likely winner is the right wing Peoples Party, but here’s the twist, they aren’t polling ahead far enough to win alone. They’d need the support of the far right Vox party to make it. Vox has seen their support grow due to scandals surrounding Sanchez and the PP. If Sanchez loses, the European left would lose one of its most public faces. On the other hand, the US and right wing European leaders would be thrilled.

Brazil presidential election: Ever since President Lula threw former President Jair Bolsonaro behind bars it’s been a very contentious time in Brazil. A lot of Brazilians viewed it as politically motivated. Brazil’s Congress, which is majority anti Lula/pro Bolsonaro, has been fighting with the president on this ever since. They’ve been working to nullify a lot of Jair’s charges. They’ve denied Lula a Supreme Court justice, the first time in Brazilian history. The right wing has recruited Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, Jair’s son, to run against Lula. If Flavio wins, it would be another shift to the right in a South American country.