u/GulfCoastLaw

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/05/19/polls/times-siena-national-poll-crosstabs.html

In my view, after listening to Frum's Monday appearance on the main pod, there's no way for the Democrats to recover with many of these groups (young people, minorities, etc.) can recover without the type of bold actions that are going to cause pearl clutching in The Bulwark wing of the coalition.

Really think it's a rock and a hard place position, because we've seen what safe moderation looks and polls like. I think it would fracture this community, as we repeat the typical debates (standard moderation vs. innovative progressivism).

Also noting that 49% of white people are very dissatisfied. I'm too tired to do my routine on why that is, but it's not something that the Democratic coalition is well positioned address in this climate.

The parallels are there.

Thief: Frank is a Parker-esque safe cracker, traumatized by prison and desperate to find a semblance of normalcy. Also has a string of random businesses to clean his money, and he desperately wants to have a woman like Parker did. He throws it all away for revenge.

Heat: Neil is Parker in LA. He lives by a code, but throws it away for revenge. Ahem, yeah, I just finished Butcher's Moon.

Any Parker fans in here? I saw Statham's turn in the role in theaters and watched Play Dirty recently. These feel more like the book character, to me.

(Had been rolling with my 4.25" M&P 2.0 for a minute.)

1. They want to punish a "woke" jurisdiction.

Background: https://harvardlawreview.org/blog/2026/02/challenging-politically-discriminatory-funding-cuts/

Ironically, Trump is responsible for some of the most widespread Defund the Police efforts in the country. Luckily for him, he will pay no political price for this because there were no college sophomores with bad slogans or black people involved!

2. They need a scapegoat for a mass shooting.

Background (Uvalde and Parkland): https://www.cnn.com/2026/01/24/us/school-shooting-trials-police-officers

3. The law enforcement agency is run by a black person.

Background: https://www.jstor.org/stable/27830507

There is a long history of the DOJ targeting black officials. Hell, even Merrick Garland made his bones through a preposterous, as close to entrapment as you can get, targeted investigation into a black mayor.

To continue the Parkland thread, state-level Republicans also indicted the (black) School Superintendent in the investigation: https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/perjury-charge-dropped-against-ex-broward-schools-superintendent/3632575/

I can't defend the sheriff here because I do not have all the facts (or the old timey Louisiana laws) at my disposal.

>Hutson, 58, was indicted on 14 counts of malfeasance in office, four counts of conspiracy to commit malfeasance in office, three counts of filing or maintaining false records, three counts of conspiracy to file or maintain false records, three counts of obstruction of justice and three counts of conspiracy to commit obstruction. All the charges are felonies, Murrill's office said.

But these charges smell interesting. Sure feels like we'll find out that many of the malfeasance counts look more like misfeasance or nothingburgers when we're done with this. This case hits 2/3 of the conditions proposed here.

The indictment provides the vibes I anticipated: https://bloximages.newyork1.vip.townnews.com/nola.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/4/be/4be9784b-0870-400e-a034-494a18df6662/69f388dc7da1f.pdf.pdf