My case for NADQ
Description of company
Nasdaq inc is a global Finance and Technology and exchange infrastructure company. It operates in three segments. Capital access platforms (market data, indicies, IR/governance tools), financial technology (Adenza regulatory/capital markets software, anti financial crime, market surveillance) and market services (equity, options, ETF trading plus listing services). Nasdaq aquired Adenza from Thoma Bravo for $10Billiom in November 2023, significantly expanding its software business. The company is the primary home of the worlds largest technology companies by market cap, 7 out of 10 largest IPOs in H1 listed on Nasdaq - including SpaceX, the largest IPO IN US HISTORY.
High quality financial infrastructure franchise trading at discount compared to peers with material near term catalysts and a rapidly improving balance sheet.
The numbers
47Billion in market cap. Share price at $84.66.
YoY growth in net revenues - 2022 +4%, 2023 +8.7%, 2024 +19%, 2025 +12.9%.
Consistently profitable and net incomes were all in the $1Billion range with 2025 being in the $1.79Billion range.
Debt only at 2.84x(TTM) this is down from the Q4 2023 Adenza close which was 5.72x.
Net debt payment is achievable by FY2027 as management stated and with other IPOs planning to launch before then, revenue could support that.
Nasdaq is the bridge to the global innovation economy. Its Nasdaq-100 index franchise (perpetual royalty on technology AUM), Adenza regulatory software (very high switching costs), and listing network efforts (all 10 of the largest US companies list on NASDAQ) which creates a multi layered mosh that is genuinely difficult to replicate.
H1 2026 was the strongest first half in US exchange history (over 120billion raised) and the Q2 2026 earnings report should confirm that through revenues
They are planning long term geographic diversification with growing presence in EMEA (Nordic/Baltic exchanges, Middle East Advisory), growing in APAC through data and surveillance contracts. Not to mention Nasdaq Texas being launched.
Long term CEO who also has a chair role is a bit of a concern but considering the long term plans. Any issue this raises in the markets is a buying opportunity for me. No insider trading disclosure or unusual selling patterns so that shows me stability.
Also cannot find any conflicts of interests or current litigations.
I think the biggest overall is how many more great IPO listings are going to be technology focused or Ai focus. This could slow down or change depending on what the next dominant trend is after Ai.
FCF is exceptional in consistency and quality. FCF conversion is 105% TTM - slightly above 100% reflects favourable working capital dynamics typical of subscription revenue businesses. FY2026E FCF consensus $2.57B, implying 29% growth as Adenza fully synergies flow and debt is partially repaid
Valuation classification is pretty fair. At 21.5x forward non-GAAP earnings, Nasdaq is at a modest discount compared to competitive with inferior moats. Trading near 52 week lows.