▲ 7 r/investingUK+1 crossposts

My case for NADQ

Description of company
Nasdaq inc is a global Finance and Technology and exchange infrastructure company. It operates in three segments. Capital access platforms (market data, indicies, IR/governance tools), financial technology (Adenza regulatory/capital markets software, anti financial crime, market surveillance) and market services (equity, options, ETF trading plus listing services). Nasdaq aquired Adenza from Thoma Bravo for $10Billiom in November 2023, significantly expanding its software business. The company is the primary home of the worlds largest technology companies by market cap, 7 out of 10 largest IPOs in H1 listed on Nasdaq - including SpaceX, the largest IPO IN US HISTORY.

High quality financial infrastructure franchise trading at discount compared to peers with material near term catalysts and a rapidly improving balance sheet.

The numbers
47Billion in market cap. Share price at $84.66.
YoY growth in net revenues - 2022 +4%, 2023 +8.7%, 2024 +19%, 2025 +12.9%.

Consistently profitable and net incomes were all in the $1Billion range with 2025 being in the $1.79Billion range.

Debt only at 2.84x(TTM) this is down from the Q4 2023 Adenza close which was 5.72x.
Net debt payment is achievable by FY2027 as management stated and with other IPOs planning to launch before then, revenue could support that.

Nasdaq is the bridge to the global innovation economy. Its Nasdaq-100 index franchise (perpetual royalty on technology AUM), Adenza regulatory software (very high switching costs), and listing network efforts (all 10 of the largest US companies list on NASDAQ) which creates a multi layered mosh that is genuinely difficult to replicate.

H1 2026 was the strongest first half in US exchange history (over 120billion raised) and the Q2 2026 earnings report should confirm that through revenues

They are planning long term geographic diversification with growing presence in EMEA (Nordic/Baltic exchanges, Middle East Advisory), growing in APAC through data and surveillance contracts. Not to mention Nasdaq Texas being launched.

Long term CEO who also has a chair role is a bit of a concern but considering the long term plans. Any issue this raises in the markets is a buying opportunity for me. No insider trading disclosure or unusual selling patterns so that shows me stability.

Also cannot find any conflicts of interests or current litigations.

I think the biggest overall is how many more great IPO listings are going to be technology focused or Ai focus. This could slow down or change depending on what the next dominant trend is after Ai.

FCF is exceptional in consistency and quality. FCF conversion is 105% TTM - slightly above 100% reflects favourable working capital dynamics typical of subscription revenue businesses. FY2026E FCF consensus $2.57B, implying 29% growth as Adenza fully synergies flow and debt is partially repaid

Valuation classification is pretty fair. At 21.5x forward non-GAAP earnings, Nasdaq is at a modest discount compared to competitive with inferior moats. Trading near 52 week lows.

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u/HereToLearnyy — 2 days ago

AZN - What do you think?

Revenue ($M)
YoY Growth
2021 - 37,417 | +40.6%
2022 - 44,351 | +18.5%
2023 - 45,811 | + 3.3%
2024 - 54,073 | +18.0%
2025 - 58,739 | +8.6%
TTM - 60,439 | + 9.9%

Source: StockAnalysis.com / updated Apr 2026.
Underlying growth is ~9–12% — strong and consistent for a $60B-revenue pharma
Analyst consensus for FY2026: $63.3B (+7.8%),

FY2027: $67.2B (+6.1%). A pharma company of this scale sustaining ~8–10% annual revenue growth is exceptional. 

Leverage has been reducing consistently as EBITDA grows. Net Debt/EBITDA of 1.23× is moderate and declining — AstraZeneca generates ~$11–12B of FCF and can service/retire its ~$24B net debt comfortably. AZN carries an investment-grade credit rating (A3/A-). 

Institutional Ownership & Analyst Consensus
Analyst consensus (NYSE ADR): Strong Buy — 8 Buy / 1 Sell (Deutsche Bank) / 0 others (10 total)

Average price target: $224.49 (+26.20% upside from $177.89)
Goldman Sachs, Barclays, J.P. Morgan, Bank of America all with Buy at $214–$221 (Jun 2026)
Deutsche Bank is the lone dissenter (Sell, $154 target)

Pipeline Optionality — The Obesity Wildcard
AstraZeneca's elecoglipron (oral GLP-1 agonist) achieved 11.8% weight loss at 36 weeks in Phase 2b (presented at the American Diabetes Association, 9 Jun 2026). Phase 3 program launching H2 2026 across obesity, T2D, heart failure, and CKD — as a standalone and in combination with Farxiga. Jefferies (Jun 2026): "AstraZeneca is the only company for which obesity offers room for positive surprises, given that it isn't factored into consensus expectations." This is a potential second $10B franchise not priced in at $178.

Gross margin expansion from 66.8% (FY2021) to 81.9% (FY2025).

EBITDA margin went from 20% → 33% — a 13ppt improvement in 4 years driven by operating leverage as the revenue grew while acquired-cost amortisation flattened

~60–70% of revenue is from genuinely recurring prescriptions for chronic or rare diseases — extremely high revenue quality for a pharma company.

Geographic Diversification - Region - Est. Revenue Share
United States ~37%
China ~9% (~$5.5B)
Europe ~22%
Emerging Markets excl. China ~17%
Rest of World ~15%

True global diversification — significantly more balanced than most large pharma peers. China is the single largest emerging market and also the single largest geographic risk.

R&D spend:
$14.2B (FY2025) = 24.2% of revenue. This is high but appropriate for a company with this pipeline depth; R&D is the moat-building engine

SG&A: $20.5B (FY2025) = 34.9% of revenue — heavy selling investment reflecting multi-territory launches

Net income and EPS 3-year CAGR of ~46% reflects normalisation from a deliberately distorted base. More sustainable going forward — consensus forecasts +12.5% EPS CAGR FY2026. Revenue CAGR of ~10% is the sustainable core.

Key valuation insight: The GAAP P/E of ~27× appears elevated, but this reflects:
Large non-cash Alexion intangibles amortisation reducing GAAP income vs. cash generation
The forward non-GAAP P/E of ~17× on $10.31 consensus EPS is the more economically relevant number

Valuation classification: Fair to Cheap. 
A business with 82% gross margins, $11.8B FCF, 13% ROIC, ~10% organic growth, and a Phase 3 obesity candidate not in consensus should arguably trade at a premium, not 17× forward earnings. The current price is ~16% off the 52-week high — a discounted entry point relative to recent history.

Bull Case: 
AstraZeneca is a compounding machine. Revenue has grown from $37B (FY2021) to $60B (TTM), EBITDA margins have expanded from 20% to 33%, and ROIC has risen from 6% to 13% — all while deploying $14B/year in R&D to build the next wave of growth. Enhertu's ADC platform is a once-in-a-decade competitive advantage in oncology, with multi-tumour expansion delivering new approvals each year. Farxiga's trifecta label (T2D/HF/CKD) makes it the Swiss Army knife of CVRM. Elecoglipron's Phase 2b success (11.8% weight loss) opens a third potential blockbuster franchise — entirely uncaptured in consensus estimates per Jefferies. At 17× forward non-GAAP earnings, the stock is cheaper than its growth rate would suggest, and ~16% off the 52-week high offers an improved entry relative to year-to-date highs.

Things I’m watching out for next:

H1 2026 results (28 Jul 2026): 
Key test of FY2026 revenue guidance of $63.3B. Watching China revenue trend, Tagrisso growth, Farxiga ex-US performance, and elecoglipron Phase 3 program timeline

Elecoglipron Phase 3 initiation (H2 2026): Protocol design will signal how broadly AZ intends to compete in obesity; pivotal for the "uncaptured upside" narrative

US tariff developmentsxx
: Any pharma-sector tariff framework will disproportionately impact AZ given 37% US revenue exposure

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u/HereToLearnyy — 19 days ago

Why are you buying Space X?

Honestly I am just curious to know why people are buying Space X. I’m not trying to be controversial or change anyone’s mind. Just purely intrigued to hear the insight of others.

Is it the fundamentals?
Is it the long term vision of space travel?
Is it the belief in Elon musk?
Is it just because it’s the biggest IPO in history?
Is it just because everyone else is buying it?

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u/HereToLearnyy — 2 months ago