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u/IndigoWizard342

▲ 2 r/mtgrules

406.7 what are the implications? (Exile²)

I was trying to find a ruling on a particular interaction and came across this rule.

406.7

If an object in the exile zone becomes exiled, it doesn’t change zones, but it becomes a new object that has just been exiled.

That answered my ruling question, I think, but I'm not entirely sure what "it becomes a new object" might imply.

Hypothetically, what if there was a spell that said "exile target suspended card." Is it still suspended? Does it depend on if the spell itself has Suspend or if it was granted the ability? Does it still have time counters?

Becoming a new object without changing zones is baffling me.

Anyway while I'm here, bonus question. the interaction I was checking out in the first place was [[rest in peace]] is on the field and someone casts [[shadow kin]] and moves to their upkeep. If im reading this correctly, rest in peace will not stop shadow kin from functioning as normal. The cards are milled into exile, then a creature among them gets exiled, and shadow kin becomes a copy of it + its own ability. Am I getting that right?

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u/IndigoWizard342 — 6 days ago
▲ 1 r/askmath

113%? Am I doing something wrong?

Lately Ive been using math to help build my decks for Magic: the Gathering.

Important information about the game before I get to the problem:

Before the game starts, you draw 7 cards then if you don't like your hand, you shuffle those cards back in the deck and draw another 7. Repeat this until you get a hand you like, then put n-1 cards of your choice from among them on the bottom of the deck where n is the number of hands you saw. (So if you like your first hand, n=1 and you don't have to put any cards on the bottom.) This is called the London Mulligan

Then for constructing my deck, I use a [hypergeometic calculator](https://aetherhub.com/Apps/HyperGeometric) to help optimize the number of times I would need to mulligan. I can use the formula "successes in sample ÷ sample size × population size +10%" to get the minimum successes in population I would need to have the chance of drawing the successful quantity or more greater than the chance of drawing the successful quantity or less. This has helped alot but it doesn't account for the mulligan.

Sometimes the successes in population is too high so i want to use the mulligan rules and probability to my advantage. I know to calculate for a mulligan, I take the P(A)+P(B) - P(AB). Since I'm drawing the same number every time, I can simply this to P(A)×Z - P(A)^Z where Z is the number of hands I've seen. So if I mulligan twice, Z=3.

This is where the confusion comes in.

Let's say population size is 60, sample size is 7, successes in population is 4, and successes in sample is 1.

The chance of drawing 1 or more of the wanted card is 39.9%. When I plug that in, I get 3(0.399)- 0.399³≈ 1.13.

How do I have 113% chance? and if I did this correctly, what does it realisticly mean?

u/IndigoWizard342 — 14 days ago