LSE SPAC2 was oversubscribed 22x, why don't investors instead invest in decommissioned IPPs like Lalpir or KAPCO instead?

SPAC is essentially a blank check company which raises funds solely to invest in other target companies. LSE SPAC1/2 both cost around 14PKR a share, while their actual capital is around 10 PKR. So, investors are paying premium of around 40%. Investors knew about SPAC1's target company but no information was available for SPAC2's target.

On other hand, decommissioned IPP's have large cash and cash like reserves, massive real estate holdings as well as their power plants are worth billions even if they were sold at scrap value.

Take LPL (Lalpir as an example). They had 9.6 billion PKR in "short term investments" (these are mostly treasury bills etc) at their last report. Their plant is worth another 1.6 billion in their books. Probably lot more considering recent sale of GT-3 and GT-4 (together ~160 MW versus LPL's 362MW) for 800 million PKR. Their actual asset value is easily over 40PKR a share.

While LPL trades at just 21PKR. This results in around 50% discount. Lalpir recently took some stake in Rafhan Maize.

KAPCO has got it even more extreme with much higher discount to their book value (63 book value vs 28 trade value). Their power plant is also on way more prime land connected to Kot Addu town. Their land is easily worth more at least 15 times more than is recorded on books.

NPL and NCPL were in similar boat. But their investment into auto sector brought attention to them. All these other IPPs just haven't got that attention.

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u/InjectorTheGood — 21 hours ago

Rough start to new year. Current Account starts off with deficit in very first month

Details are the worst part. Remittances now contribute more to FX reserves than goods exports consistently (3.6 billion vs 3 billion)

Breakdown of exports is even worse. Out of 3 billion of exports, 1.8 billion is contributed by textiles alone. Food contributes another 450 million. So, all other categories contribute just 750 million USD.

Government really needs to get serious about improving exports rather than adhoc measures. Every dollar invested into manufacturing returns annual export of 0.5$ to over 1.5$. Export oriented industries should be provided with electricity at production cost exclusive of all cross subsidies and surcharges and offered flat 15% income tax to spur investment.

What government does instead does is offer red carpet to foreign investors while heavy taxation and expensive electricity to local conglomerates.

u/InjectorTheGood — 1 day ago

Since padosis have come up with another historical distortion recently, here is a before and after satellite imagery of two sheds in Amritsar airport. Jan 2025 vs Aug 2025

One of the very few bases that got updated on Google Earth within months of May 2025. Most other haven't been updated after May, or were updated a whole year later.

You can verify this visual on Google earth at these coordinates: 31.699969, 74.789533

u/InjectorTheGood — 3 days ago

Aimal Wali's proposed provinces. This gotta be most delusional proposal around

https://preview.redd.it/tebdvzjnhbih1.png?width=678&format=png&auto=webp&s=b54832fb9b90e27766fb2f46a4185164c3246307

Don't know what he was smoking on when he made this map. If provinces were to be indeed redrawn on ethnic lines like he did with North Balochistan, Hazara and DI Khan should be included in Punjab. But here, he is proposing that Attock and Pindi too be moved to KPK. Kohistan and Chitral too need to be moved out of KPK if division were indeed redone on ethnic lines.

Secondly, contrary to popular belief that "larger administrative units can't work efficiently", Punjab happens to be most well functioning province in our country. Smaller provinces need division more desperately than Punjab does. Peshawar district has lower literacy rate than "backward" Bhakkar district.

Thirdly, purpose of redrawing is not ethnicity. It is administration. Best way is to merge very small divisions and make every division suba.

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u/InjectorTheGood — 11 days ago

Many PSX-listed companies have shown interest in FESCO privatization

  1.        Aktor Elektrik Enerji Yatirimlari San. ve Tic. A.S. ?- Turkiye
    
  2.        Genvera Enerji A.S. (Celik Group)- Turkiye
    
  3.        Cengiz Enerji Sanayii ve Ticaret A.S. – Turkiye
    
  4.        Jiang Xi Electric Power Construction – China
    
  5.        Engro Energy Limited – Pakistan
    
  6.        Sapphire Fibers Limited – Pakistan
    
  7.        Hub Power Holdings and Lucky Cement - Pakistan
    
  8.        Shirazi Investments (Pvt) Limited (Atlas group) – Pakistan
    
  9.        Maple Leaf Cement and Kohinoor Textile – Pakistan 
    
  10.     Nishat Mills Limited and Pak Elektron Ltd. – Pakistan
    
  11.     Artistic Milliners (Private) Limited – Pakistan
    
  12.     K-Electric Limited – Pakistan
    
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u/InjectorTheGood — 13 days ago

Nishat Group forms consortium for participation in FESCO privatization

https://preview.redd.it/c7e8j2pysshh1.png?width=755&format=png&auto=webp&s=eb281d168f87cdffd85b2c348403a4324a97ee27

This will help LPL, PKGP, NPL, NCPL and KOHE get diversification they desperately need. Most of them are sitting on cash and currently functioning almost exclusively as savings accounts than actual IPPs.

This is good news. Hopefully some local group will be able to acquire all three DISCO's rather than foreign one.

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u/InjectorTheGood — 14 days ago

Since many come up with argument "development will eradicate terrorism", why do terrorists attack development projects?

https://preview.redd.it/q95bdg76u8gh1.png?width=874&format=png&auto=webp&s=576c754447e09fe6e36880ad08afd3171193517a

This is from when Mirani Dam was being built. Pakistan's mega dam after long break built in Balochistan, purely intended to develop region around Dasht River. No other province was to benefit, no resources were being extracted. What justification is there for attacking projects like these?

BLA still attacks dam projects in Khuzdar etc. They also attack Chaman-Karachi dualization project regularly. What justification can they or their urban supporters come up with?

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u/InjectorTheGood — 21 days ago

How do you report your freelance foreign income to FBR?

When you put your income into Business -> Tax Deductions -> Export of IT/ITeS Services u/s 154A @ 0.25%. It calculates Tax chargeable.

But under Wealth Reconciliation, that inflow doesn't appear. Enter Manually under Final Tax section there, click Calculate and it reverts it to zero. How do you add your freelance income?

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u/InjectorTheGood — 1 month ago

Breakdown of Pakistan's Electricity Capacity Charges by Type [2024-25]

There is lot of political heat over capacity charges by street-popular politicians as well as journalists. Most of them have jumped on this bandwagon within last year and rarely give impartial review or solution to this issue. It is important to know where these capacity charges are going.

Nuclear, coal and RLNG based plants have very high capacity charges because they are in their active debt repayment cycles. Once these debt repayments complete (most around 2030-33), their capacity payments will fall by anywhere from 50% to 70%.

Government should provide electricity from low utilization coal based plants to close energy intensive industries like steel etc at production price. This will make sure transmission system doesn't get choked and capacity charges will be spread over larger consumption base. If government could raise electricity consumption to 150 billion kWh, capacity charges will drop to just 12 PKR/kWh. This will help country escape death spiral of high electricity price and start a cycle of increased consumption.

https://preview.redd.it/55zzi4q4i8eh1.png?width=1029&format=png&auto=webp&s=d0392247c7a5a6b556514393c9b64c5f01a88875

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u/InjectorTheGood — 1 month ago

Tired of constant posts here blaming Punjab for backwardness of other provinces

I am not hating on anyone. But honestly, we see these posts too often.

It has been over 15 years since 18th Amendment was passed. Health, education and most of the development is now provincial mandate. Punjab actually has the lowest budget expenditure per capita among all provinces.

Under NFC Award, all provinces get almost proportional share from the divisible pool. While most natural resources like coal, stones etc are managed entirely by the provincial government. Federal government collects 12.5% royalty on oil and gas, but keeps only 2% as collection fee. Also, mining and quarrying makes up only 2% of Pakistan's GDP.

Then we often hear "certain province sells electricity at 1 rupee, but buys it back at 50". Those mega dams were funded and built by the federal government when government used to be central. Hydel projects aren't that cheap when you consider the initial cost. That 1.1 PKR is essentially water use charge and it is above other countries. Hydel projects that provinces develop themselves get paid higher price per kWh.

Electric DISCO's from Punjab all have T&D losses of less than 15%. While DISCO's in other parts of country are all over 20% barring Karachi's. That's hundreds of billions people in Punjab pay indirectly to subsidize rest of the country's electricity grid. Similar is true for federal government owned highways.

Punjab also is at forefront whenever it comes to sacrificing the budget. This year, Punjab will be keeping 900 billion budget surplus as well as almost 50% cut in the development budget. This translates to roughly one quarter of its total budget.

Also, many blame Bengal on Punjabis too. Truth is, not a single Commander-in-Chief was Punjabi till '71. Nor was any of the leaders at that time a Punjabi. Also, Punjabis haven't seen proportional share in major leadership posts of the country. It's just a coincidence that every COAS since Musharraf has been Punjabi. It wasn't the case ever before that and most COAS/CiC's were non-Punjabis.

People in other provinces need to stop blaming Punjab for every issue. Thy need to hold their own leaders accountable instead.

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u/InjectorTheGood — 1 month ago

Regarding IWT, too much fearmongering and rhetorical chest thumping on both sides of border.

It is true that Pakistan depends a lot on transboundary rivers' water. But nowhere close to many believe. And there are plenty of ways to thrive with water that our country generates within its own border if ethnonationalists would grow some sense.

Let's take a look at how much water is actually generated within Pakistan versus dependency on external water by each river:

Chenab River: Almost 25 million acre ft (MAF) of water is received at Marala, Sialkot annually. Almost all of it is transboundary.

Jhelum River: ~23 MAF is received at Mangla annually. Out of which 10-11 MAF is contributed by Jhelum's main stem (this one has only 10-15% internal generation while other is external), Neelum contributes around 8-9 MAF (~6 MAF is internal), 2.5-3 MAF from Kunhar River (100% internal), Poonch/Kanshi and other Potohar hill torrents contribute another 1.5-2 MAF (mostly internal). Overall, around half of Jhelum's flow at Mangla is internal.

Indus River: ~60MAF at Tarbela annually. This river is lifeblood of Pakistani economy. Fortunately, most of its flow is internally generated within Pakistan. Only around 12-15 MAF enters Pakistan's borders at Kharmang, rest, all is generated within Pakistan. It's tributaries like Shyok, Gilgit and Hunza are massive.

Kabul River: ~20-22 MAF. Contrary to popular belief, most of Kabul River is generated within Pakistan. It's main transboundary tributary, Kunar River actually begins in Chitral District and by the time it enters Afghanistan, it carries 8-8.5 MAF of water out of Kunar's total of around 12 MAF. Kabul's main stem from Afghanistan produces just 3.5-4MAF to Kabul River's flow. After entering back into Pakistan, Swat River (total annual water flow of ~7-8MAF), Bara and other drains (cumulatively around 1 MAF) drain into Kabul River too.

This is the total situation of transboundary rivers. I haven't included the huge untapped potential of our hill torrents, as well as many tributaries that join Indus system after Kalabagh.

I have included the complete data in case other nations were to stop every single drop coming into Pakistan. It isn't technically possible right now. Ravi's flow from across the border at Jassar has been around 3k-5k cusecs for weeks now. River that is considered the most dammed.

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u/InjectorTheGood — 1 month ago

Government has launched "InvestPak" to enable individuals to directly invest into government debts

Stated goal is to "reduce reliance on banking sector for enabling more private lending by banks". Can effect bank profit margins if this really takes off because banks rely too much on easy risk free lending to government.

https://preview.redd.it/hudgugowsnbh1.png?width=758&format=png&auto=webp&s=78ab6fc48b7d21ced94a0ceb7bacd35059eecbd6

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u/InjectorTheGood — 1 month ago

Exports are stuck under 3 billion for very long now. Need to improve them if the country is to escape boom and bust cycles

First of all, need to end cross subsidies provided by industry for residential or agricultural consumers. This will reduce electricity price for industries making them more competitive. Also, need to completely eliminate duties or taxes on industrial electricity tariff.

Secondly, need to find more export categories. Pakistan is major exporter of milk, but still imports milk products. If it were to process just 10% of liquid milk into concentrated milk powder and export it like NZ does, it can fetch over 2 billion USD. Similarly, if just 10% of Pakistan's meat production were routed to exports, it would fetch over 1.5 billion USD.

Similarly, at import substitution we are way worse. For example, we export furnace oil at loss and reimport carbon black for tyres production and other processes. Need to bring policies to setup industry for processes like this to reduce imports.

https://preview.redd.it/sl2xa3xpquah1.png?width=689&format=png&auto=webp&s=66b998b52d4cf75060bb9cb7bed9c71fc0310de2

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u/InjectorTheGood — 2 months ago

Punjab has sacrificed over 1.4 trillion PKR directly this budget through surplus and direct grant to Federal government

Absolutely despise all the hate directed against Punjab by people of other provinces.

This year, Punjab's budget has 910 billion of surplus (required to keep federal government afloat) and another 546 billion of direct grant to federal government. KPK and Sindh have presented deficit budgets while KPK and Baluchistan haven't allocated anything toward federal grant.

If that 1.4 trillion is subtracted, average budget expenditure per person in Punjab comes out to just 35k PKR per person. Compared to 59k in Sindh, 53k in KPK and 69k in Balochistan. Unlike other provinces that have very too much population living in very small area, Punjab's population is almost evenly distributed across its territory.

This doesn't include indirect payments that people of Punjab pay to cross subsidize electricity companies, national highways as well as dozens of grants toward other provinces and territories.

But still, hear Hidayat ur Rehman's speech from few days ago. Or look at hate on social media and in person from people of other provinces.

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u/InjectorTheGood — 2 months ago

Interesting: Lalpir and Pakgen Power are trying to get into new business. Lalpir is trading at a massive discount relative to its cash reserves

https://preview.redd.it/u9kb81vy9a8h1.png?width=982&format=png&auto=webp&s=941ae457287ace0a2d74cb4d57671bb5c393c981

Do your own research!

Lalpir Power has signaled its intent to pivot to entirely new business. They are highly likely

Lalpir Power has 279 million shares and 9.563 billion PKR in "short term investments". That comes out to around 34.27 PKR cash per share. Their liabilities are almost zero and currently they are spending around 260 million PKR quarterly on plant preservation and maintenance and less than 30 million on administrative expenses. These are easily compensated from their investment income.

Apart from that, they also own over 250 acres of land in Kot Addu district which currently houses their power plant as well as housing complex. Land alone is easily worth over 600 million. Their fixed assets are listed as 1.6 billion, but high chance it will fetch more if they do salvage their plant.

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u/InjectorTheGood — 2 months ago