u/J-Jarl-Jim

source: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/07/04/world-cup-2026/collins-dominates-platner-00987029

Especially if the anti-Israel wing are divided among multiple candidates, or some moderates are too wishy-washy and afraid to take a stance in either direction?

Source: https://www.axios.com/2026/06/27/trump-midterm-democratic-socialists

Trump's midterm message is going to focus on an alleged communist takeover of the Democratic Party. Centrist Dems freaking out about the DSA is going to amplify that message.

And guess what? Centrist Dems are the ones who are most at risk of losing due to this message.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/06/30/us/politics/texas-senate-poll-talarico-paxton.html

The poll shows Talarico and Paxton tied 47-47. Reminder that Trump won Texas in 2020 52-46, so Talarico and Biden are basically at the same level.

source: https://x.com/hakeemjeffries/status/2070854894890692957

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_Senate_election_in_Michigan#Polling_3

Source: https://www.ncsl.org/elections-and-campaigns/table-18-states-with-all-mail-elections

In light of the news that the Postmaster General will not carry mail-in ballots for states that refuse to turn over voter rolls to DHS.

Though, I think this map is incomplete. I know Pennsylvania does mail-in ballots if you request it. I bet a ton of other states do, too.

Source: https://www.axios.com/2026/06/24/mamdani-lander-valdez-chevalier-espaillat-goldman

Personally, I think this is a bad move. I disagree with a lot of DSA's positions and policies, but bringing them into the tent and negotiating with them is far more effective than fighting them.

Centrist Dems need to think of this as a parliamentary coalition government, not an existential fight for the soul of the Democratic Party.

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/23/aipac-record-spending-new-york-maryland-00971411

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5930362-mamdani-new-york-house-primaries/

>Mamdani also broke with Velázquez, a progressive ally, in a contested race for her seat. Velázquez has endorsed Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso, a progressive and ally of Mamdani. But the mayor has backed Valdez, who has support from the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). 

>Velázquez has not been quiet about her frustration with Mamdani over the endorsement. 

>“I’m not going to allow DSA to define who is progressive and who is not,” she said after campaigning with Reynoso, The New York Times reported. “Because the fact that they are here, I paved the way for that.” 

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/18/republicans-redistricting-house-map-midterms-00966371

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/5929323-primary-losses-house-members/

Eleven more members still have primaries this summer, with a mix of front-runners, long-shots and competitive races.

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/28/republicans-texas-money-concerns-battlegrounds-00939207

Politico reported that the Texas Senate race is expected to cost a total of $550 million between the two candidates.

While Paxton did not have to spend much money on his primary election, he will have access to MAGA Inc.'s $350 million war chest and the Republican Senate Leadership Fund's $166 million.

Talarico has raised $40 million as of March 2026, mostly from small dollars donors, but he will need heavy hitter to compete with Paxton.

From the article:

Talarico’s fundraisers, held April 15 to 17, were hosted across the Bay Area in Palo Alto, the Mission District of San Francisco, Oakland and Marin County, according to the invites. Venture capitalists, Democratic donors, political operatives and activists made up the host committees.

David Rusenko, former CEO and founder of Weebly and partner at climate tech fund Leap Forward Ventures, helped to host one of the fundraisers alongside fellow Leap Forward Ventures partner Jessica Alter, according to the invites. Alter also advises AI startups at Blue Flame, a leadership firm that builds sales and marketing infrastructure for AI software companies.

Source: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/5926264-republicans-graham-platner-boogeyman-midterms/

“He is the poster boy for the Democrat party,” Republican strategist Ford O’Connell said. “This match-up may have implications in other races because all the Republican has to do is turn around to someone like [Democratic Senate candidate James] Talarico in Texas: ‘Do you support Graham Platner?’”

“I mean, this is the gift that keeps on giving,” he added. “If the Republicans are smart, they’ll make Platner the poster boy for the 2026 midterms.”

----

But Republican strategist Brian Seitchik said making Platner the foil is “absolutely the winning strategy in a 2026 campaign.” 

“Democrats continually assert a faux morality when it’s convenient, but when they have someone with a Nazi tattoo who is clearly a misogynist, everyone is content to look the other way,” Seitchik said. “The fact is, this person has no business being in the Senate both from a moral perspective and a qualification perspective. There’s so much wrong with this person.”

----

Susan Del Percio, a veteran Republican strategist, also pushed back on the approach the GOP has taken with Platner. 

“If you want Susan Collins to win, leave her alone,” Del Percio said. “Having Republicans meddle in the Maine election is a really bad idea. She knows how to win. She won many times before. She’s probably the only Republican who knows how to win Maine.” 

Still, Seitchik argued that Republicans need to keep going after Platner’s “bad policies, bad record and awful, awful moral judgment.” 

“Mainers who may disagree with Susan Collins respect that she’s a serious person who votes in the best interests of Maine regardless of ideology,” he said. “That’s why she annoys the hard right as well as the hard left.”

“This is clearly a bad dude, and during the next five months, Mainers are going to learn that,” he added.