u/JPAnalyst

▲ 494 r/AFCSouthMemeWar+1 crossposts

[OC] How often do teams win the opening coin toss? Denver leads the league at 57.4%. The Titans are a disaster at 39.6%. (2020-25)

https://preview.redd.it/r3z1q8j9tz1h1.png?width=1065&format=png&auto=webp&s=73524e734e86db4f3589a1f3ea5be00d581bf056

Last season the Titans won only four out of 17 regular-season coin tosses. That 23.5% win rate ties them for the lowest in a season since 2020, with the Cardinals and Commanders (2023) and the Panthers (2022). This brought their total coin toss win rate down to only 39.6% over 101 coin tosses since 2020. Not far behind in that bottom tier are the Texans winning only 40.6% of their tosses since 2020. After six years of underperformance, it’s clear these two teams need to 1) allocate more time to coin toss drills in practice, or 2) acquire through the draft, trade, or free agency a player who excels at calling heads or tails, or 3) add a coin toss specialist to their analytics staff. Doing nothing and hoping for better results is not a strategy.

At the other extreme is Denver. The Broncos are alone at the top winning 57.4% of their coin tosses. They have been a model of consistency standing alone in tier one without ever leading the league in any of the seasons in my data set and generating only one sub 50% season in the last 5 years.

The top team in 2025 was the Chargers with 70.6%, elevating them to 2^(nd) overall since 2020. (lowest in 2025, mentioned above: TEN 23.5%)

Z-Scores:

I’m not showing Z-scores on the chart, but 25 of the teams are within +/- 1.0 standard deviation, and 29 teams range from 1.2 to -1.2. Here are the Z-scores for Denver +2.0, Houston -2.5, and the Titans at -2.8. (Z-score primer)

Other notable seasons since 2020

  • Chargers in 2020 with 75.0%
  • Cardinals in 2021 82.4%; their 14-3 record on coin tosses is tied for the best season in my data set.
  • 49ers 82.4% in 2022. Tied for the best season, raising questions about the impact of the electrical substation on coin flips.
  • Panthers 23.5% in 2022
  • Panthers with positive mean regression in 2023 by leading the league at 76.4%!
  • Cardinals and Commanders in 2023 with 23.5%

This data is from regular season games only. Source is Stathead  https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/aM6c9

 

 

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u/FriendlyFaceOff — 4 days ago
▲ 239 r/nfl

The Giants and Cowboys have faced off in week one 11 times. The Cowboys have won 10 of them.

With the news that the Giants and Cowboys will be playing each other on Sunday night of week one this upcoming season, here is a look at how they have fared against each other when facing off in the opening week of the season. The last time they played in week one was a few seasons ago (2023) and ended in a 40-0 bludgeoning by the Cowboys of the Giants. Dallas is on a 3-0 winning streak with an average point differential of 25 points.

27% of the time these teams meet in week one, Dallas has shut out the Giants offense; 36% of the time, they have held the Giants offense to zero touchdowns.

The Cowboys are 10-1; Giants 1-10. The average game is a 31-16 Dallas win.

https://preview.redd.it/me5xvnecji0h1.png?width=366&format=png&auto=webp&s=297d245320767530983a27773dc3ef7a0e5449ac

Here is the link to the Stathead query. Team Game Stats Finder - Pro Football | Stathead

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u/JPAnalyst — 11 days ago

53 years ago, on May 5th 1973, one of many eruptions occurred in a series of eruptions from 1969 to 1974 on Kilauea (Mauna Ulu eruption) in Hawaii (Big Island).

I picked these rocks up while hiking on the new glassy, sharp earth created by that May 1973 eruption. I call it my “birthday lava” because while the earth rumbled, kicked, tossed and turned beneath the earth’s surface, I was doing the same in my mom’s belly. Although I erupted a few days later, I feel connected to my “twin” lava.

While the eruption was going on, on May 5th, Secretariat won the Kentucky Derby in front of 130,000 in attendance on his way to the Triple Crown. On May 6th, 1973, while the lava was hardening and smoking, the Knicks beat the Lakers in game three of the NBA finals. Willis Reed, Earl Monroe, and Walt Frazier were in their way to winning the NBA championship, this would be the last time the Knicks ever won a championship…but their story in 2026 is not fully written yet.

>The May 1973 eruption near Hiʻiaka Crater was a vigorous event on Kīlauea’s upper East Rift Zone. Lasting about seven hours, it produced lava flows that traveled from just west of Hiʻiaka to Pauahi Crater, crossing what is now Chain of Craters Road in Hawaiʻi Volcanoes National Park.

Here is a picture of the lava during the eruption May 1973 Eruption near Hiʻiaka Crater | U.S. Geological Survey

More information on the series of eruptions from 1969-1974, including a map of the lava flows. My birthday lava was from one of the smaller, more insignificant eruptions in the series of eruptions. https://www.usgs.gov/volcanoes/kilauea/science/1969-1974-maunaulu-eruption

>Many lava flows also reached far from ‘Alae, cascading into, and filling the deep pit in Makaopuhi Crater, previously untouched by the eruption. Other flows from ‘Alae covered long stretches of the Chain of Craters Road and frequently entered the sea.
>New fissures opened uprift twice during this time, in and near Hi‘iaka and Pauahi Craters on May 5 and in and near Pauahi on November 10, 1973. These were the first eruptions to take place far from the Maunaulu edifice. However, activity eventually returned to Maunaulu after each of these small, isolated eruptions.

This Atlantic piece has tons of great photos from the Mauna Ulu eruptions. My lava rocks are from the lava flows in photo 15 (lava crossing the road)

>Looking back a few decades, Kilauea’s previous record-holder was the spectacular Mauna Ulu eruption, which lasted from May of 1969 until July of 1974, generating amazing lava fountains, cascading lava falls, and eventually adding 230 acres of new land to Hawaii’s Big Island.

A Look Back at Kilauea's Spectacular 1969-1974 Mauna Ulu Eruption - The Atlantic

It’s not often you can pick up a rock or a piece of earth and know exactly how old it is. That’s what I think is pretty cool about these lava rocks. We know when they were born. The map of Hawaii and many other places isn’t done changing, as new earth bubbles up and changes the size and shapes of islands.

Happy Birthday to my lava rocks. 🌋

Oh, and by the way…if you made it this far. As of the time of this post, Kilauea is back at it and erupting right now. https://www.youtube.com/live/iws3rh5vLAQ?si=dP_uHeYbt317lQQb

u/JPAnalyst — 17 days ago

Hi! With the World Cup a month away I’d like to start getting caught up on the teams, players, news, and drama.

Here is the type of stuff I’m looking for:

⚽️ I’m looking for podcasts, video, newsletters, websites, etc.

⚽️ I’m not into in-game strategy, more high level narratives.

⚽️ I don’t want team-centric content. I’m American, I’m not looking for US national team content, or any other team specific content. Big picture all teams, and stories.

⚽️ A bit of humor and whimsy added is a bonus.

⚽️ Anything to educate me on all the teams and hot story lines.

⚽️ English is my only language.

I hope this will be a useful thread for others as well.

Thank you!

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u/JPAnalyst — 18 days ago
▲ 273 r/Georgia

I’ve been checking in the yard every day for a couple of weeks now, and today was the first day I’ve found some baby Joro spiders. I set up a couple of those tomato cages, hoping they would make a good landing spot for some Joro spiders to make their forever homes after ballooning (riding a silk sail on the wind) away from their nests. This morning, I found seven of the babies making their webs.

The coloring of this baby won’t look like the coloring and pattern you expect on an adult Joro, but this is how they look when they are about a month old and just leaving their sack of eggs. In 2025, the first time I spotted a Joro outside of a nest was May 4th, so they are right on time.

This baby is roughly 1 month old, is about 5 mm with legs. In five months from now, it will be over 18X this size at about 3.5 inches with legs.

Unless you’re a sicko, intentionally looking for them, they are way too small for you to see or to be bothered with right now. You are at least a month away before spotting any of these in a bush or on your porch. And even then they’ll be very small.

This is the general timeline of Joros in northern Georgia:

🔘 egg sacs hatch in early April

🔘 babies leave the nest in early May

🔘 you’ll start to notice them in** **June and they’ll have their yellow/green and blackish patterns (good length but skinny)

🔘 Big, juicy, fatties with nice red coloring in September to October

🔘 they lay their eggs in November

🔘 they die in December

Happy joro season! I’m looking forward to meeting my new porch friends this year.

u/JPAnalyst — 20 days ago