https://preview.redd.it/r3z1q8j9tz1h1.png?width=1065&format=png&auto=webp&s=73524e734e86db4f3589a1f3ea5be00d581bf056

Last season the Titans won only four out of 17 regular-season coin tosses. That 23.5% win rate ties them for the lowest in a season since 2020, with the Cardinals and Commanders (2023) and the Panthers (2022). This brought their total coin toss win rate down to only 39.6% over 101 coin tosses since 2020. Not far behind in that bottom tier are the Texans winning only 40.6% of their tosses since 2020. After six years of underperformance, it’s clear these two teams need to 1) allocate more time to coin toss drills in practice, or 2) acquire through the draft, trade, or free agency a player who excels at calling heads or tails, or 3) add a coin toss specialist to their analytics staff. Doing nothing and hoping for better results is not a strategy.

At the other extreme is Denver. The Broncos are alone at the top winning 57.4% of their coin tosses. They have been a model of consistency standing alone in tier one without ever leading the league in any of the seasons in my data set and generating only one sub 50% season in the last 5 years.

The top team in 2025 was the Chargers with 70.6%, elevating them to 2^(nd) overall since 2020. (lowest in 2025, mentioned above: TEN 23.5%)

Z-Scores:

I’m not showing Z-scores on the chart, but 25 of the teams are within +/- 1.0 standard deviation, and 29 teams range from 1.2 to -1.2. Here are the Z-scores for Denver +2.0, Houston -2.5, and the Titans at -2.8. (Z-score primer)

Other notable seasons since 2020

• Chargers in 2020 with 75.0%
• Cardinals in 2021 82.4%; their 14-3 record on coin tosses is tied for the best season in my data set.
• 49ers 82.4% in 2022. Tied for the best season, raising questions about the impact of the electrical substation on coin flips.
• Panthers 23.5% in 2022
• Panthers with positive mean regression in 2023 by leading the league at 76.4%!
• Cardinals and Commanders in 2023 with 23.5%

This data is from regular season games only. Source is Stathead  https://www.sports-reference.com/stathead/tiny/aM6c9

 

 

I’m pissed