u/Jmanbuck_02

BEST PICTURE

I’ve viewed La Bola Negra and The Odyssey as our top 2 for quite a period, and with the former winning the TIFF People’s Choice only reaffirmed Picture will probably be a race between them. For now, I’m going to give Odyssey the edge since its win package feels reminiscent of what Oppenheimer pulled but LBN has a good case to spoil if guilds rep it hard. Post fall fests, Wild Horse Nine and The Debut look to solidly in, probably not win-contenders here but both look to be gunning for Acting wins, 5-8 I don’t have much to add to, Obsession I’ll keep in my 10 but on rocky ground and for my last spot, I decided to move Artificial. My reservations towards predicting Guadagnino given his recent track record with the Academy aside, the buzz seems strong and could be a potential sneak. Outside my 10, I’m keeping my eye on Fjord, Possible Love or I Play Rocky. Digger I feel goes the way of Babylon of landing a few crafts but not a nominee especially after bombing as hard it has.

DIRECTING

Nolan and Los Javis feel locked to me and the only ones in win contention, McDonagh I think is solid as well as Hamaguchi. I’ve had this Top 4 since July/August and trying to rationalize the 5th spot after dropping Iñárritu and have landed on Olivia Wilde. Hurdles aside, the lack of women-helmed films here and A24 getting a director nom for each of their Picture plays minus Past Lives has panned out before so it could work for her or even Eisenberg. As far as everyone else, Mungiu or Lee Chang-dong could be the international auteur the branch goes for if AoaS slipped or they don’t do the actor/directors, Villeneuve I’ve warmed up to his narrative slightly of honoring him for his achievement for the trilogy but my reservations aren’t going away and won’t put him in unless Dune is win-competitive in Picture or his best reviewed film.

LEAD ACTRESS

With the raves she’s gotten (especially getting standing ovations mid-film), Julianne Moore looks on pace to win her 2nd Oscar and quite frankly if anyone deserves another one it’s her. Navarrete and Wilde look solidly in but I decided to move Olivia up over Inde since The Invite feels more stable in Picture than Obsession, whether or not she places in Director she’ll land here. The last 2 spots are a shuffle of Efria, Hüller and Madeley, all three make a ton of sense but decided on Efria since I have AoaS in my Picture lineup and Hüller since she’s my pick for the Globe Drama at the moment, although the narrative surrounding Madeley is very tempting not to mention reviews for her are pretty solid.

LEAD ACTOR

Malkovich, Damon and Scott I think are happening, it’s the last two spots I’m trying to rationalize. I moved Gosling back into the 5 with how front and center he is for his movie but doesn’t feel locked and I’ll keep Pascal since he’s gotten enough praise even if Behemoth isn’t a big contender. Outside the 5, I won’t the possibly of Cruise, Turturro, Pattinson, Ippolito or even Rogen. Having seen Digger, I think Cruise is very good and if it had better critical reception I’d think he could be in win conversation; with that said I won’t rule him out since he might hit a couple precursors, but we’ll see how he does across the season.

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Not a ton to add here, unless an alternative forms I still think Hathaway is walking away with the win. Last time I made a prediction post, I had 4/5 of this same lineup in the exact order, only difference is Morton in, Girolamo out.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

With the fall fests in the books, this category looks more confusing to me. Giamatti has gotten good enough reviews for his movie but all the praise has been channeled towards Moore, and looking at the lineup I have, Norton, Leguizamo, Rockwell and Guitarricadelafuente round it out but I might have to fall back on critic groups to be honest. One thing I will add regarding Artificial and despite not having Garfield in my lineup, he’s the contender I’m keeping an eye on if his film plays really strong.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Wild Horse Nine and The Debut look to be duking it out for the win, could go either way but I’m leaning towards WH9 having an edge but they’re the Top 2. After seeing Fjord, I moved it back into my lineup, whether or not it makes the 10, it could be a repeat of IWJAA’s package. Obsession I’m keeping in for the time being, and in my last spot, I put Artificial in the 5, will keep an eye on Club Kid, Tender Loving Care or Possible Love as outside contenders.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Last time I made a predictions post, I had this 5 but with Ink instead of Project Hail Mary. I feel La Bola Negra is our frontrunner with The Invite as a spoiler, each People’s Choice Winner in Best Picture since Silver Linings Playbook with the exception of The Fabelmans & Life of Chuck which wasn't nominated won an AtL prize and whether or not LBN overtakes The Odyssey in Picture, and this is its strongest bet in a Top 8 category.

BEST PICTURE

I still view The Odyssey, La Bola Negra and Wild Horse Nine as our top 3 with Odyssey out front for now, moreso as a placeholder since I think it land most nominations but keeping an eye on the other two depending on how they perform at the fall fests. I’m still gonna predict Digger until the reviews drop. 5-10 I don’t have a lot to add on except I finally moved The Invite in, it could fall off but I’ve become convinced the actors and script can happen (maybe director on its best day). Last thing I’ll add is I’m keeping my eye on Ink as the potential fall breakout.

DIRECTING

I’ve moved Nolan to number one, I could see him winning this more than The Odyssey taking Picture but Los Javis and McDonagh are also compelling options, Hamaguchi I have faith in All of a Sudden but between him and Mungiu whom I don’t have in, both will be dependent on their film’s strength and rounding out my 5 is Iñárritu. Olivia Wilde I’d love to see in but I have my reservations towards how the branch views actor/directors but I will say that except for Past Lives, every A24 film has landed in Director so it’s not impossible.

LEAD ACTRESS

Not a lot to work with here, Navarrette and Moore are my top 2. Whether or not Wilde lands in Director, I think she’ll land here and it helps she’s excellent in The Invite, Efria I have in purely since I think her film will be in and with Hüller in Rose, could be nothing but I think she has a shot at Globe Drama which could benefit her. I’ll keep my eye on Erivo, Reinsve and Madison as potential alts but we’ll see.

LEAD ACTOR

Besides Malkovich, Cruise and Damon, the last two slots are really anyone’s game. I’ll play it safe and do Scott and Pascal, their films could end up being nothing once the fests are over but both have compelling cases to get their first nominations respectively. Man, this year is going to be competitive here since there’s also cases for Gosling, Pattinson, Turturro, Rogen, O’Connell and Stan to happen.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

I’ve moved Hathaway to number one, could win her 2nd unless someone steps up to challenge. Cruz getting a double nom is possible but I’m leaning on The Invite as her nom. Girolamo makes sense based on early reactions to her, Okamoto I have getting in alongside Efria and for the 5th spot, I swapped Morton for Lola Dueñas, I could see this happening since reactions look to be strong for her, outside the 5 Cruz as mentioned for LBN and not that I expect it but I’d love a push for Gillian Anderson in Camp Miasma.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Giamatti I still have at number one but I wonder if Guy Pearce could be a serious challenger if Ink gets strong reactions tomorrow. Rockwell I still think is going to happen, Leguizamo I feel will coattail The Odyssey to a career nomination and rounding out my 5 is Norton, I’d love if a case built for him to finally win but I could see critics pushing for him as well as the other Invite castmates. Goodman I feel sceptical towards him than I did previously but other potentials I think could be Buscemi, Strong and Guitarricadelafuente.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

I still have Wild Horse Nine at number one, whether or not it’s a threat in Picture, McDonagh winning this checks out although it would be insane if he lost 3 times in a row to a buzzy genre film, that said I don’t see Digger or Obsession winning but both I have in, The Debut checks out and Behemoth in the last spot since that could be an interesting character study. Fjord, Club Kid and Tender Loving Care I have as wildcards, with the latter having a case to give Mike Leigh one final nom if this is his final film.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

La Bola Negra still out front since I think it will be our likely runner-up/winner but I have thought could The Invite be a real challenger if it’s in there for Picture, with how it’s spotlighting a lot of memorable dialogue and monologues. I have The Odyssey in as an additional nom but don’t see it taking this, especially if Oppenheimer couldn’t win when that took Picture. All of a Sudden since I have it in my 10 and for now, I took out Project Hail Mary for Ink with in adapting this Tony winning play and as potential breakout for the festivals, just testing the waters with what it could get nominations for.

2020/21

• Anthony Hopkins (The Father)
• Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)
• Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah)
• Youn Yuh-jung (Minari)

2021

• Simon Rex (Red Rocket)
• Renate Reinsve (The Worst Person in the World)
• Mike Faist (West Side Story)
• Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)

2022

• Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
• Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
• Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
• Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)

2023

• Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer)
• Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)
• Ryan Gosling (Barbie)
• Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

2024

• Adrien Brody (The Brutalist)
• Mikey Madison (Anora)
• Adam Pearson (A Different Man)
• Margaret Qualley (The Substance)

2025

• Lee Byung-hun (No Other Choice)
• Jessie Buckley (Hamnet)
• Sean Penn (One Battle After Another)
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)

I made a post about this on Award Expert, and wanted to expand the conversation further. What's your picks for favourite winner from each of this decade's Top 8 categories?

It’s been a while since I made a prediction post but here’s where I stand before The Odyssey hits cinemas.

BEST PICTURE

I feel it’s bad timing I dropped this hours after the Netflix/Letterboxd rumors and having La Bola Negra as my current winner but frankly, the films I currently have in my top 4 you could make a case for and I wouldn’t argue with. Project Hail Mary I don’t think will be top 5 once the end of the year rolls around, but it tracks as the crowdpleasing blockbuster the Academy has gone for lately. The Debut could be massive or not, but you’ll get why I ranked it there; Dune: Part Three seems like a decent bet, won’t entertain a win for it though. Admittedly, Obsession could fall off but with how much noise this film has made within the last two months and shown some industry passion, it would be a little foolish if Focus Features didn’t do a campaign for it. Rounding out my 10 with the Cannes titles of Fjord and All of a Sudden, one or both could hang on but we’ll see. Outside looking in I’d entertain Behemoth and The Invite.

DIRECTING

Considering I have La Bola Negra at number one, I also have Los Javis out front but admittedly, if The Odyssey lives up to what the early reactions suggest, I have entertained Nolan winning again. Sure, it would be a bit soon after he won for Oppenheimer but I’ll also mention Cuarón and Spielberg had a decent year gap between their director wins so it’s not ridiculous to suggest Nolan couldn’t pull it off again. McDonagh and Iñárritu look like decent bets, rounding out my five is Cristian Mungiu but I feel it’s holding on purely off the Palme win. If critics rally for AoaS similarly to Drive My Car, Hamaguchi is one I’d look out for; Villeneuve I won’t entertain once unless that film is in win conversation. Like I mentioned in Picture, Gilroy and Wilde I’ll entertain if their films materialize.

LEAD ACTRESS

I moved Inde Navarette to lead recently, have her 2nd behind Julianne Moore since he looks good in the trailer but if this field looks dead, I have thought about pushing Navarette to the top with how much noise her performance has made. Both NEON picks of Reinsve and Williams slot for now but both could fall off and rounding out my 5, Cynthia Erivo since Prima Facie could be very meaty for her. Other options Hüller for Rose, Blunt for Disclosure Day but I don’t believe it after that film underperformed, Edgar-Jones for S&S I guess if that is something and despite loving her Anora win, Madison looks quite miscast in Social Reckoning.

LEAD ACTOR

Unless Digger is outright rejected, I feel decent having Cruise upfront. Category placement pending, Malkovich feels ripe to be nominated for a McDonagh film, Gosling could fall off but I also can’t go against him. Outside of the top 3, the last 2 spots are a shuffle of Damon, Pascal, Pattinson, Stan, Scott and Turturro but decided to land on Matt Damon if The Odyssey is that strong and Andrew Scott based on the early buzz for Elsinore, although any combo I wouldn’t disagree with. If The Invite really took off, maybe Rogen or in the case of a jumpscare, felt like mentioning Jaafar Jackson.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

You’re guess is as good as mine, Girolamo I guess I’ll slot at number one. If Nolan gave Hathaway something juicy, perhaps she could win although Samantha Morton has received raves from the cast, so who knows? Despite the lack of screentime, I got Cruz for La Bola Negra but she’s gotten just as much if not more praise for The Invite but waiting on how that film does. Initially having Sandra Huller for Project Hail Mary wouldn’t make sense since she’s not the heaviest on material but I wonder if she could get CCA or SAG and there being enough people who couldn’t stop thinking about her karaoke scene, or she places for Digger if that film gives her something big.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Giamatti’s my placeholder, looks great in the trailer and would be a nice follow-up nom/win after The Holdovers. Based on the rumbling about Digger, Goodman sounds very meaty as the President but him finally getting nominated will be his victory right now. Both WH9 boys I feel solid about and for the last spot, I have Robert Pattinson placing for The Odyssey but the early reactions suggest Tom Holland has gotten more mentions. Speaking of Holland, him, Ahmed, Norton and Strong would be my backups for the time being.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This 5 I feel solid about. I have Wild Horse Nine winning, McDonagh finally getting his Screenplay Oscar feels right after placing runner-up for his previous efforts. Digger and The Debut both track with how I think they’ll perform, as I mentioned in Picture, Obsession could fall but I think it has enough pros working in its favor to place, and Fjord rounding out the 5. I’ll keep an eye out on Behemoth or Club Kid for the time being.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

La Bola Negra and Project Hail Mary in my top 2 with the former winning, we’ll see how All of a Sudden does but with it being in my Picture 10, I think it places here. Despite some critiques surrounding The Odyssey, it tracks to me where I don’t imagine a win but with Nolan adapting such a huge story why not? And rounding out the 5 is the only nomination I have The Invite getting.