u/JoeLimbrah

A little perspective for the doom and gloomers.

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"How high? The median cost of a home in California reached $930,260 in May, a 2.3% increase from April and a 3.1% increase from the same time last year.

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And, the Bay Area recorded a 3.6% increase in the median price for a single-family home in May. The median price in the Bay Area for a home that month was $1.45 million, according to the report.(Roughly 1.5 million)

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Several Bay Area counties saw increases in their median home price, including San Francisco County, which recorded a whopping increase of 22.2% since May 2025. The median price there is $2.2 million, the association noted."

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2 million in Santa Clara county, which is the main county for bay to Fresno migration.

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It's Below 450k in Fresno, Madera, and Merced counties.

Stockton and Sacramento counties cost at least 100k more. Metro Stockton is killing it. Sacramento is doing very well as well. They'll be fine in the short term.

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Expect for Fresno area numbers to slowly grow. House flippers are everywhere now. even in the western edges of town! If you're expecting a big reduction in prices, I've got some bad news for you.

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If price drops are your thing then Phoenix is the place to be. They overbuilt and are dealing with the consequences.

Want more house for the dollar? Bakersfield is nearby.

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Have a good weekend

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I had the metro data, but I can't find it. But I do have city stats and I'll link it below.

Overview

Fresno grew 2.4 percent. Sacramento grew 2.2 percent in that time period. The metro growth is about even between the two cities. with metro Fresno possibly growing slightly faster than metro Sacramento(like I said, I don't have the metro data anymore. I'm going from memory)

The Modesto area is anemic, but people here love to hype it up for some reason. It's growing slower than much of the valley.

Merced is doing well, but I don't remember the metro percentage.

Bakersfield grew faster than Fresno and Sacramento, but both Sacramento and Fresno had more county growth than Bakersfield. Fresno and Sacramento feel like safer bets for future metro growth than Bakersfield.

The towns around Stockton are booming, but Stockton isn't benefiting much. The people moving to the area are just priced out bay areans who don't need Stockton for much.

I'll have the link posted below.

Edit: Clovis grew very well, but growth could be slowing down soon.