Futures Close at Noon Today and Equities Closed til Monday

Have a great long weekend and be ready for volatility on Monday. Lots of economics reports coming out next week including inflation numbers which will likely move the markets .....and we have no idea what will happen over the weekend.....which is great because it creates volatility which creates trading opportunities.

Enjoy your weekend, next week is going to be great!

reddit.com
u/KelvinsEdge — 3 days ago
▲ 44 r/TradersEdgeLabs+1 crossposts

no strategy seems to work

Ive been studying tading for around 6 months, and started funded accounts 2 weeks ago. every single trade ive won has been from straight bullshit and i just close the trade whenever i feel like it. 99% of trades that used a strategy that i found online have lost numerous times in backtest and instantly lose when i enter. people say stick to ur rules to become profitable, but it seems that the rules arent the problem for me, its the fact that i cant even implement these rules without first being stop lossed every single trade. i havent bought any courses, and idk what strategy to actualy use. what do i do? what do profitable traders (not just gurus and course sellers) actually implement to make their profit?

fyi, ive spent around 400 in evals, passed one through straight bullshit and decided to start implementing a strateg i found online that seems to be "successful", but lost me 4 trades in a row while risking 250 each. it was on the 25k lucid, and obviously that account is blown now. what do i do??

reddit.com
u/Hot-Bumblebee-990 — 4 days ago

One of the best podcasts for Traders Who are Learning or Not Consistently Profitable. This is how you Move Forward

Most Traders Who are Learning are Overwhelmed with the noise, the shear volume of conflicting opinions out there. So I like to post podcasts that are not noisy and are real information about how to learn to trade.

Here is the reality of the noisy environment.....those who actually know how to trade, are all saying something very similar. Track your trades and review them regularly, organize this information so you can see the patterns easily. You need a process to learn that makes it simple enough to focus on this for a small set amount of time everyday.

If you want to focus on a process that makes it easy enough to learn markets check this out

https://youtu.be/\_g3OfwrLKXw

youtu.be
u/KelvinsEdge — 6 days ago

I am Sharing Exactly How I have Built Multiple Trading Strategies and Developed Myself as a Trader in this Series

If you want to learn how to trade and you aren't watching my How to Build Edge Series you are missing out. Every Week I share the Journey of Building Edge on 2 Strategies that I have never traded before. I started with a concept and experimented until I found something that worked....and it worked really well!

In this weeks Episode I cover one of the most valuable market truths that could save new traders so much time and frustration....if they just knew about it.

Here is the Link, hope it helps you in your trading journey

https://youtu.be/WvZ_01EQTvc

youtu.be
u/KelvinsEdge — 8 days ago

Lean into Your Strengths When Trading

If you are a 7' tall athlete, dont try out to be gymnast, you will naturally do better at basketball.

If you are naturally thick and muscular swimming might not be your thing but powerlifting or crossfit might suite you well

As you try new things in trading stay aware of what you are drawn too and what makes sense to you.

Here is an example. Every successful trader says I am risk averse....and then gives a reason to prove it.

I am risk averse so I never hold overnight

I am risk averse so I dont daytrade

I am risk averse so I dont try to time the market and I stay invested in good companies

I am risk averse so I make sure i win a lot

I am risk averse so I make sure my losers are tiny in comparison to my winners

They are all correct.

The question is what makes sense to you? Does your personality favour scalping small winners constantly, finding big winners and sizing up into them or something in between?

It comes down to who you are, what you are wired for and what you are naturally good at.

Lots of aspects of trading are like this, so you have the opportunity to lean into aspects your personality that are already strengths.

reddit.com
u/KelvinsEdge — 8 days ago

The Most Effective Way to Use Your Discpline to Level Up Your Trading

So much content is out there about just being more disciplined in your trading, and as a result social media is filled with traders complaining/beating themselves up over not having had discipline.

But.....no one says how to have discipline in trading. No one is saying, do these things to build discipline. Lets change that, this is a mini guide to being a disciplined trader

First, Lets Understand How Your Discipline Works

You do not have infinite discipline. The idea that you can sit in front of a chart and watch it develop all day and have discipline for that entire day and do that everyday might be asking a bit more of you then you were designed for.

Discipline requires resources, both mentally and by extension physically. Think of it like a gas tank that gets refilled everyday. You are putting a cognitive load on yourself....and since your brain is the most energy hungry organ in your body it burns through fuel like crazy when you are sitting in front of the screen manually forcing discipline while at the same time eagerly looking for your next trade. You will run out of energy, your ability to have discipline will become depleted.

The nuance is that Discipline is like a muscle in that exercising it will make it stronger, but if you over exercise your muscles what happens.....they get depleted and your entire body suffers. The same is true for forcing yourself to be disciplined all day every day.

The Most Efficient and Strategic Way to Use Your Discipline

So Discipline needs to be used strategically. The most effective way to do this is to use discipline to build habits. So you pick one thing at a time and work on building a habit around that. For example, when you first start out as a trader you are building an edge and as such you likely want to be doing some statistical analysis of your strategy to see what is working and what is not. In that scenario you are most definitely wanting to be getting in mechanically when an entry presents itself so you can log that trade and fill out your data set. If your discipline issue is that you are not entering when you get an entry signal then pick that one thing to be disciplined about. Whenever you get a signal, work on having discipline to take the trade even if you need to size down to only 1 share or 1 contract. Within 1 week the amount of energy required to display that discipline starts to taper off because a habit starts to form. Over about 2 months the energy required to execute that discipline continues to taper off, see the attached Chart.

https://preview.redd.it/6dypeid6kt9h1.png?width=1536&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a6c6899b3d729c82e4e5e3e46a1290b3823d2a2

After a few weeks of practice on forming a new habit it is likely that the cognitive load has been reduced enough that you could pick another area of your trading to work on while you are continuing to lock in the first habit.

Where Discipline Breaks Down

For Discipline to do its job, it needs to see that the efforts being put in are having results. It needs a feedback loop. The habit gets locked in when results start to appear. Going to the Gym Sucks for the first month but when you lose that first 10 pounds the feedback loop becomes the more powerful driver of habit forming. The same with trading, you need a feedback loop to tell you that what you are being disciplined about is working.

Since a normal outcome in trading is 3 out of 10 trades fail, or 5 out of 10 trades fail, or even 7 out of 10 trades fail but the ones that work more than make up for all those failed trades, you can't get confirmation that what you are doing is working over the course of the trades you placed that day or that week. Because a significant amount of those trades won't work and on such a short time frame you can't tell if that is because of you, the markets or adjustments need to be made to the strategy....you can't expect yourself to know what is going on in such a small window. So the only way for you to get the feedback is to track your trades and review them. Realistically you will start to get more confidence over the course of 50-100 trades.

So asking yourself to show up everyday and have discipline when you don't know that your strategy is working, you don't know if you are improving, you don't understand the nuance of your strategy like what conditions are supportive to this strategy working and what conditions tell you to back off from trading that strategy.....this creates a meat grinder psychologically. This is the scenario where asking yourself to show up and have full discipline everyday just grinds you down psychologically and actually creates the worst trading psychology. You need validation that your efforts to have discipline are producing the correct results, and if your conscious mind won't admit that your subconscious mind will definitely draw attention to it in the form of anxiety and fear about your trading.

If you are taking the markets day by day without putting in the efforts to really get to know your strategy, that is the scenario where the markets chew you up and spit you out. The way to get a leg up on the markets is to track your trades, review them, journal and also quantify your emotional state with a simple 1-10 scale and log it with your trades. This will do 2 things, you will see how your psychology is improving over time and also be able to see that if you had a bad day trading it might be because you didn't have the right frame of mind... and there are strategies for ensuring that you show up with the right frame of mind....but that discussion will be for another post.

The book to read that covers this subject well is The One Thing by Gary Kellar and Jay Papasan

If you would like to continue this thought on improved trading psychology I made this

https://youtu.be/bovsdKt3_ZA

Hope this Helps

reddit.com
u/KelvinsEdge — 9 days ago
▲ 8 r/TradersEdgeLabs+1 crossposts

The Most Effective Way to Use Your Discipline to Level Up Your Trading

So much content is out there about just being more disciplined in your trading, and as a result social media is filled with traders complaining/beating themselves up over not having had discipline.

But.....no one says how to have discipline in trading. No one is saying, do these things to build discipline. Lets change that, this is a mini guide to being a disciplined trader

First, Lets Understand How Your Discipline Works

You do not have infinite discipline. The idea that you can sit in front of a chart and watch it develop all day and have discipline for that entire day and do that everyday might be asking a bit more of you then you were designed for.

Discipline requires resources, both mentally and by extension physically. Think of it like a gas tank that gets refilled everyday. You are putting a cognitive load on yourself....and since your brain is the most energy hungry organ in your body it burns through fuel like crazy when you are sitting in front of the screen manually forcing discipline while at the same time eagerly looking for your next trade. You will run out of energy, your ability to have discipline will become depleted.

The nuance is that Discipline is like a muscle in that exercising it will make it stronger, but if you over exercise your muscles what happens.....they get depleted and your entire body suffers. The same is true for forcing yourself to be disciplined all day every day.

The Most Efficient and Strategic Way to Use Your Discipline

So Discipline needs to be used strategically. The most effective way to do this is to use discipline to build habits. So you pick one thing at a time and work on building a habit around that. For example, when you first start out as a trader you are building an edge and as such you likely want to be doing some statistical analysis of your strategy to see what is working and what is not. In that scenario you are most definitely wanting to be getting in mechanically when an entry presents itself so you can log that trade and fill out your data set. If your discipline issue is that you are not entering when you get an entry signal then pick that one thing to be disciplined about. Whenever you get a signal, work on having discipline to take the trade even if you need to size down to only 1 share or 1 contract. Within 1 week the amount of energy required to display that discipline starts to taper off because a habit starts to form. Over about 2 months the energy required to execute that discipline continues to taper off, see the attached Chart.

https://preview.redd.it/6dypeid6kt9h1.png?width=1536&format=png&auto=webp&s=6a6c6899b3d729c82e4e5e3e46a1290b3823d2a2

After a few weeks of practice on forming a new habit it is likely that the cognitive load has been reduced enough that you could pick another area of your trading to work on while you are continuing to lock in the first habit.

Where Discipline Breaks Down

For Discipline to do its job, it needs to see that the efforts being put in are having results. It needs a feedback loop. The habit gets locked in when results start to appear. Going to the Gym Sucks for the first month but when you lose that first 10 pounds the feedback loop becomes the more powerful driver of habit forming. The same with trading, you need a feedback loop to tell you that what you are being disciplined about is working.

Since a normal outcome in trading is 3 out of 10 trades fail, or 5 out of 10 trades fail, or even 7 out of 10 trades fail but the ones that work more than make up for all those failed trades, you can't get confirmation that what you are doing is working over the course of the trades you placed that day or that week. Because a significant amount of those trades won't work and on such a short time frame you can't tell if that is because of you, the markets or adjustments need to be made to the strategy....you can't expect yourself to know what is going on in such a small window. So the only way for you to get the feedback is to track your trades and review them. Realistically you will start to get more confidence over the course of 50-100 trades.

So asking yourself to show up everyday and have discipline when you don't know that your strategy is working, you don't know if you are improving, you don't understand the nuance of your strategy like what conditions are supportive to this strategy working and what conditions tell you to back off from trading that strategy.....this creates a meat grinder psychologically. This is the scenario where asking yourself to show up and have full discipline everyday just grinds you down psychologically and actually creates the worst trading psychology. You need validation that your efforts to have discipline are producing the correct results, and if your conscious mind won't admit that your subconscious mind will definitely draw attention to it in the form of anxiety and fear about your trading.

If you are taking the markets day by day without putting in the efforts to really get to know your strategy, that is the scenario where the markets chew you up and spit you out. The way to get a leg up on the markets is to track your trades, review them, journal and also quantify your emotional state with a simple 1-10 scale and log it with your trades. This will do 2 things, you will see how your psychology is improving over time and also be able to see that if you had a bad day trading it might be because you didn't have the right frame of mind... and there are strategies for ensuring that you show up with the right frame of mind....but that discussion will be for another post.

The book to read that covers this subject well is The One Thing by Gary Kellar and Jay Papasan

If you would like to continue this thought on improved trading psychology I made this

https://youtu.be/bovsdKt3_ZA

Hope this Helps

reddit.com
u/KelvinsEdge — 9 days ago

Was your Weekend Market Prep a Game Changer for Your Trading?

​

Many Traders find that a few hours of preparation on the weekend when the markete are closed gives them the time and clarity to think clearly about the plan for thr coming week.

Some traders review their week/charts they traded

There is the news and how it plays into thr current market environment

What does your Weekend Prep look like?

reddit.com
u/KelvinsEdge — 9 days ago

Was your Weekend Market Prep a Game Changer for Your Trading?

​

Many Traders find that a few hours of preparation on the weekend when the markete are closed gives them the time and clarity to think clearly about the plan for thr coming week.

Some traders review their week/charts they traded

There is the news and how it plays into thr current market environment

What does your Weekend Prep look like?

reddit.com
u/KelvinsEdge — 9 days ago
▲ 2 r/TradersEdgeLabs+1 crossposts

Was your Weekend Market Prep a Game Changer for Your Trading?

Many Traders find that a few hours of preparation on the weekend when the markete are closed gives them the time and clarity to think clearly about the plan for thr coming week.

Some traders review their week/charts they traded

There is the news and how it plays into thr current market environment

What does your Weekend Prep look like?

reddit.com
u/KelvinsEdge — 9 days ago

This is the Single Biggest Take Away from Trading in the Zone

The single biggest Trading Psychology issue that Mark Douglas stressed, it was the most mentioned recurring theme in the book, is that you must accept the probabilistic nature of the markets.

Lets break down what that means.

What Does it Mean to Think in Probabilities

Thinking in Probabilities means understanding that you have a certain percentage chance of success in any given trade, and to say it another way that is potentially more meaningful, no single trade has a 100% certainty of being successful.

So how is money made in the markets....How is Consistent Profitability achieved?

It is understanding over 10 trades you will win 50% of the time or 60% or maybe only 30% but with such a high RRR that the strategy is still very profitable.....but you don't know which of those individual trades will be winners and losers you only understand that some of them will be winners and some will be losers.

This directly translates to your emotional state. We are wired to seek certainty and when you put yourself in a very uncertain environment your subconscious mind loses it, it simply can not deal with that situation. Then you start to see symptoms of your subconscious being not ok. Anxiety, Fear....FOMO, hesitation, Chasing.....all of the common issues.

How to go About Learning to Think In Probabilities

You can logically know that a profitable trading strategy operates on a probabilistic frameworks, so much % of your trades will be winners and the rest will be losers....but to get your subconscious on board and calm all those emotions down you must have some certainty proved. Your subconscious mind is just trying to keep you safe and if you are risking real money and your time on something that is not proven you simply will not be able to get your trading psychology under control.

The way to create some certainty is by organizing the information that is your trading. Track your trades, track your emotional state, track where you think the market is going to go on the day as soon as you think you have some confirmation. When you track this information and review it and start to produce meaningful results such as an actual % win rate based on your actual trades, a real Risk-to-Reward Ratio based on what you actually got in the strategy that you are trading then you start to prove to your subconscious mind that you are safe. When you show it organized data, review your trades and document the patterns that you see, the details that can improve your edge, then your subconscious begins to interpret this as some level of certainty.

To Mark Douglas' point, you will never know what is going to happen on the trade that you are currently in. That is not possible. But it is possible to have a pretty good idea of what will happen over 100 trades. That is enough certainty to calm your emotional state.

Build the Proof, Trade with Confidence

Most traders try to fix their psychology while trading a strategy they've never proven works and that's the problem. You can't calm a nervous system that's legitimately uncertain. To be clear, there are trading psychology issues that exist and do need to be dealt with in time, statistical analysis is not going to solve all of your trading psychology problems but it is the place to start. As long as your have wide open uncertainty that is the raw market experience, you will always struggle with Trading Psychology. You don't need certainty on the next trade. You need certainty in the process and that certainty is built 1 logged trade at a time.

I made this to talk more about how to apply Trading in the Zone to your trading.

https://youtu.be/MNLKU1OPunY

u/KelvinsEdge — 10 days ago
▲ 2 r/TradersEdgeLabs+1 crossposts

My Most Meaningful Advice to Newer Traders-Start with the Basics of Trading First

We show up to the markets as new traders excited, sometimes thinking that we can learn this in 6 months and make our first $100k before next summer.....I know I did.

The strategy that you have come across is shown as simple, it is just a chart pattern, enter here, exit here, set a stop loss and make 2:1 Risk-to-Reward everyday. It works, the Guru shows you it works and so if it doesn't work for you then it is your fault, your discipline, Your FOMO, etc.

Successful traders are saying "that it doesn't work that work". No 2 traders will trade exactly a like and it takes experience in the markets to be successful.

If you want to try to be successful in 6 months far be it from me to judge you, lol, I did that.....but after 3 years I hit a brick wall where I had to admit to myself that it isn't working.

It wasn't lost time though, I still gained experience in the markets.... but it was far from efficient in getting me to my goal of consistent profitability.

So when I started to think more about it, I reasoned that if I was learning Guitar, my music teacher would likely start me off with learning the 8 Major Chords and then teach me to play an old beetles song that using a simple 3 chord progression. If I was learning to play hocky my coach would teach me to pass and do a wrist shot....and well skate first....before trying out for the NHL.

So I went back and started from the basics, the same way you would learning anything else.

What does starting with the Basics actually look like....

Trading Psychology

The first thing to do is to believe that you can do this! That is not a mental exercise. It is proving to yourself that others have done it, other retail investors have become consistently profitable and have made a great living off of trading. That involves reading or listening to books of real retail traders that have done it, steer away from hyped up gurus with big claims. Think all of the Market Wizards Books, especially the latest version The Next Generation, because it highlights some retail traders and reputable traders you may know from YT. Another book that I used is called MOMO traders as it features Retail Traders who have made it from varying backgrounds. It is possible and you can do it, you just need to prove to yourself that you can, and a big part of that is....

...See yourself as a successful trader. Vision boards can be helpful if that is your thing. You can visualize yourself living the lifestyle, that is fine but more important is visualizing yourself taking those winning trades and the joy and meaning that this has in your life, visualize yourself taking small losses and feeling like they mean nothing to you because you know that your strategy performs well and a few small losses are no big deal for your overall PNL, visualize yourself with a feeling of confidence in the markets with a track record that proves you know what you are doing.

Once your subconscious mind has a clear picture of where you want to go it will begin identifying the practical pieces that you need to fill in to reach that goal. Visualization isn't everything that you need to become consistently profitable but it is the start, it is how you get your motivation right, which is very much tied to your emotional state, pointed in the right direction, and keep it pointed in the right direction

Practical Beginner Steps

There is the basics of what brokerage to use, charting software, terminology, etc that everyone starts out learning. The next thing to learn is technical analysis and this is the basis of your trading. The Practice technical analysis, a lot! Use Major indexes, the mag 7 and other mega cap and large cap names or commodities to pracitce your technical analysis. It isn't that technical analysis is hard, it is that you need to see a a lot charts to show yourself that technical analysis works....and how it works, and those larger names on the daily chart are the best tools for getting a basic undestanding of how technical analysis works. if you try to start with an intraday chart or a low float gapper it is going to be confusing for you. The basics of this is starting on the daily chart on major ETFs, Mag 7 and large and mega cap names.

You also very much need to understand the fundamental reasons why I chart is going to have a prolonged move. Technical analysis allows you to identify setups that have the best Risk-to-Reward, it can show your were to take profits, it can show you what an instrument is currently doing, what it has done in the past and confirm a move, as in volume comes in and the voting machine is telling you that traders and investors are on board.....but it can not tell you that there is a reason that this chart will go higher. So getting familiar with some basic fundamentals and tracking them to understand sector momentum, the kind of news that would move a stock higher, and earnings and revenue growth. A healthy market and the whole reason that markets move higher is based on earnings and revenue growth. So understanding those basic things is important to understanding the markets and having a profitable trading strategy.

Journaling, Tracking Setups and the Skill of Building Edge

Most traders think of a journal as a place to track their emotional state — and it is that, but it needs to be more than that. Your journal is where you reflect honestly: what you did well, what you want to improve, how you were feeling in the moment and very importantly celebrating your wins and what you did correctly, acknowledging the little improvements you are making everyday. That part matters. But if it stays purely qualitative, it stays invisible to your data.

Here's the problem with discretionary trading: you are one of the most important variables in your results. How you were thinking that day. Your emotional state. Your sleep. Your read on the market before the open or shortly after. These things influence every decision you make, and if you're not tracking them, you're flying blind on a critical input.

The fix is to quantify the subjective. Pick three things, rate them on a 1–10 scale, and record them in your spreadsheet alongside your trades just like any other criterion:

1.       Emotional state — 1 is distressed, scattered, or off; 10 is calm, clear, and confident

2.      Sleep quality — 1 is a rough night; 10 is fully rested

3.      Market bias before the open — 1 is strongly bearish, 5 is neutral, 10 is strongly bullish

This is how you train yourself to become aware of your own tendencies — not through vague reflection, but through data you can actually work with. Remember, to train your discretionary edge it is not about being 100% mechanically accurate, it is about training your judgement and ability to see what works and what doesn't work. So by you assigning a value to these subjective things you are getting better at awareness and organizing your own thoughts and emotions.

There's something else worth addressing early on that most trading content gets completely backwards.

You'll hear a lot about discipline. You'll be told that chasing a setup or experiencing FOMO means you have a psychology problem that needs fixing. Maybe that's true — but maybe it isn't, and here's the thing: you won't know until you've proven your edge statistically. Even a mostly discretionary edge still needs to show real win rate, real risk-to-reward in live trading, and a positive expected outcome over a meaningful sample of trades. That's the only scoreboard that matters. That is how you prove Consistent Profitability as it translates directly into PNL.

The problem with fixating on discipline and self-criticism before you have that data is twofold. First, it takes the joy out of trading as you are constantly miserable thinking you can't do anything right.....take a breath, give yourself some space to learn. Second — and this is more damaging — it limits your ability to experiment. Early on, experimentation isn't a flaw in your process, it is your process. You need to find what makes sense to you, what setups you actually see well, what timeframes fit your personality. You need to discover who you are as a trader. You cannot do that effectively if you're in a constant state of self-judgment.

This is why the most talked-about trading psychology concepts can actually work against your psychology. They impose a framework of failure onto a stage of learning that should feel open and exploratory.

If you want to understand this at a deeper level, read or listen to Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience by Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi. His core insight is that peak performance in any domain requires a state of engaged enjoyment — not grim discipline. Trading is no different.

The Path Forward

The path most traders take is backwards. They start with psychology, try to fix discipline problems they haven't yet confirmed exist, and grind the enjoyment out of the process before they've ever validated a single edge.

The path that actually works looks like this: start with belief that it's possible, get your technical and fundamental foundations in place, build and test your strategies with real data, quantify the subjective variables so you actually know what's affecting your results — and do all of it with enough curiosity and enjoyment that you can sustain the process long enough to get good at it.

Consistent profitability isn't the reward you get after you've suffered enough. It's the result of structured learning done in a state where you're actually fully enjoying what you're doing.

I made this to show what a progressive path looks like to go from beginner to consistently profitable, something that is easy enough for any retail trader to do. Hope it helps you.

https://youtu.be/_g3OfwrLKXw

u/KelvinsEdge — 10 days ago

June Was the Most Active Month for Retail Traders Ever!

June had the highest trading volume ever at just over 1/3 of all trading volume, according to Citadel.

-9 of the 10 largest trading days were in june
-apparently we were buying a lot of options on semiconductors
-this considers both volume of trades and dollar volume traded

What were you trading?
Is this a sign of a market that is topping?

reddit.com
u/KelvinsEdge — 10 days ago
▲ 4 r/TradersEdgeLabs+2 crossposts

June was the Most Active Month for Retail Traders Ever!

June had the highest trading volume ever at just over 1/3 of all trading volume, according to Citadel.

-9 of the 10 largest trading days were in june

-apparently we were buying a lot of options on semiconductors

-this considers both volume of trades and dollar volume traded

What were you trading?

Is this a sign of a market that is topping?

reddit.com
u/KelvinsEdge — 10 days ago

If Retail Traders Understand these Basic Concepts on Trading Psychology it Would Completely Change Their Trading

Trading Psychology is very important but most retail traders are thinking about it all wrong.

A Few Basic Changes to how you view yourself and your trading will completely change your outlooks on markets and your trading.

Watch these 2 videos for the explanation

https://youtu.be/BX6TumeENmc
https://youtu.be/bovsdKt3_ZA

u/KelvinsEdge — 11 days ago

Stagflation Concerns will Likely be back but the Markets Could Stay Bullish-Todays Economics Reports

The past 14 hrs have seen some very significant news come out. MU earnings blew expectations out the water and that company is quickly gaining strength in the AI narrative that is beginning to rival NVDA. MU Earnings was one major piece of news.

The second is actually multiple reports. A Lot of Economic Reports that are currently important to the market all lined up at the same time this morning:

- Core PCE numbers, a measure of inflation

- Jobless claims-Job participation is very important to markets

- US GDP Growth

- Personal Income and Spending- the backbone of basic economic strength

Here is the breakdown:

Core PCE

All of the PCE numbers came in around the forecast so no surprises there but the major issue is that the inflation reflected in these numbers remains higher then the 2-3% target. This is continues to be problematic as I will discuss further below

Jobless Claim

This came in as expected and is not worth focusing in on right now. The reason why this number was being watched by markets is because it has been a little high over the past few reports and there was a concern that there was not enough jobs to go around for everyone

US GDP Growth

This is the one of the big ones that I see here, Growth was very strong coming in well above the forecast.

Personal Income and Spending

Also a great surprise. Average Earnings went up and so did personal spending, personal spending is what drives much of the Economy.

So the Narrative looks really good from these reports except that the stagflation narrative will always haunt US economists, a situation where GDP Growth is High but also inflation is high. It is a very hard problem to get under control and leads to some very unwanted economic issues. In the 80s, interest rates were raised to 18% to try to tame inflation.

The counter to that is that the 2 most inflationary things that can happen have happened, sustained printing of USD and a massive oil price spike. Oil is coming down and the markets are beginning to price in that Kevin Warsh will be shredding money.... as I discussed here https://youtu.be/xdn0hDGy8YM

So for today it will likely be all about the MU earnings, The AI theme still in tact and prices will likely go higher.....just watch for the stagflation narrative....if that comes back it could temper the upside momentum at least in the short term.

u/KelvinsEdge — 11 days ago
▲ 2 r/TradersEdgeLabs+1 crossposts

Micron Beats on Earnings and Revenue- The Markets were waiting on this today

Markets were down in the dumps again today due to the shaky foundations of the proposed resolution to the Iran-US conflict in the middle east but investors were waiting Micron's Earnings Report after the close today.

It was a tall order to beat Micron's last report with a 34% growth on the quarter, of course analysts set their expectations for the company sky high.....because it is totally reasonable for a $1T market cap company to keep growing at 35% per quarter......and yet they did it, they beat expectations. Micron is approaching ATH in after hours and the QQQ are also recovering in after hours.

The next meaningful report that the markets will be looking at will be in pre market tomorrow when Core PCE is released along with Initial Jobless claims. This measure of inflation will matter as inflation continues to be hot topic combined with unemployment.

The picture that is currently being painted is bullish but lets see what tomorrow morning brings. Major Indexes breaking out to all time highs could happen again by the end of the week.....what would seal the deal is if there was a finalized resolution to the US-Iran Conflict....but that would just make trading too easy. We probably won't get that. Nevertheless if inflation numbers come in tame tomorrow ATH on the major indexes could happen this week.

reddit.com
u/KelvinsEdge — 12 days ago

Trading Roadmap- How to Learn Trading Step by Step

Most beginner traders are confused and overwhelmed by the amount of differing strong opinions on how they should learn to trade.....and honestly, that's not their fault. There's no shortage of trading content out there, but almost none of it shows you a clear, step by step process for actually learning to trade properly.

The Edge Foundry has solved that problem.

There is a methodology. A sequence. A way to develop both your strategies and yourself as a discretionary trader. The pros know it — the institutions they work for teach it internally. But in the retail world?..... Almost no one is talking about it.

I spent years working to understand that process. Then I adapted it so retail traders can actually use it — without watering it down. It's still powerful. And it works.

I did it for myself, to develop myself as a trader and develop my own playbook of trading strategies.....but I have to share it. I need to put this out there because I don't want anyone feeling stuck, frustrated and giving up on their dream of trading. It can be done, you can learn to trade the markets successfully

This video shows you exactly what I mean.

https://youtu.be/_g3OfwrLKXw

youtu.be
u/KelvinsEdge — 12 days ago