u/Kill_4209

SpaceX float is only about 4%

SpaceX float is only about 4%

New rules from Nasdaq remove the 10% minimum requirement.

Under the old rules, a new stock had to season for at least 3 months before it could join the index, and it had to have at least 10% of its shares traded publicly. Both of those requirements are now gone. Now, a stock is eligible for fast-track inclusion after just 15 trading days, with almost no float if its market capitalization places it among the top 40 holdings of the Nasdaq-100.

There are reports that Musk is asking underwriters to waive the typical 180-day lock-up period that prevents company insiders and some other shareholders from selling their shares after an IPO.

According to Semafor, Musk is pushing for a much shorter lock-up, or even none at all, with insiders able to sell in gradual tranches tied to price and trading-volume thresholds.

That would do away with rules designed to prevent insiders from cashing out at peak hype, which are standard protections for new public shareholders.
In practice, this means insiders get to cash out at what will probably be a record valuation for the company right when retail investors get their first opportunity to buy in.

Musk is also apparently negotiating an above-average level of retail participation in the offering, directing 20% to 30% of the IPO to individual investors, compared to the more typical 5% to 10%. Allowing insiders to exit quickly to retail buyers raises eyebrows about who benefits from these underwriting changes.

Source: https://www.forbes.com/sites/garthfriesen/2026/04/25/spacex-ipo-is-forcing-changes-to-index-and-underwriting-rules/

u/Kill_4209 — 5 days ago

What are big moves RDDT could do? M&A? New c-suite?

They’re sitting on a pile of cash. Maybe a different leadership could utilize it better. Maybe the company needs a veteran leader who knows how to take the company to the next level. Knows how to use debt smarter. Knows how to strike the right partnerships.

I hear Cook is available /s.

reddit.com
u/Kill_4209 — 10 days ago

Thesis
Reddit should partner with Polymarkets or similar. It would combine the world's largest "sentiment engine" with the world's largest "truth engine".

How it works
Instead of just talking about whether a movie will flop or a bill will pass, Reddit could add a "prediction layer" to many subreddits. Imagine r/spacex having a built-in market for the next launch. Reddit provides the information and community opinions; Polymarket provides an infrastructure to price the probability beyond likes.

Makes sense for both parties
Reddit gets a new cash stream and Polymarkets gets more activity.

Benefits users
The benefit to Reddit users is that instead of subreddits devolving into echo-chambers, a Polymarket widget that subreddits could choose to display would provide the hard, cold data point of if people are actually willing to put their money where their mouth is.

Fights a growing problem
An added benefit is that it would protect against AI-slop. Reddit could flag controversial "Breaking News" posts with market based confidence levels. If a post claims an oil tanker has been attacked, but the Polymarket odds show there's a 2% chance of that being the case, then Reddit could mark the post "High Uncertainty"

My advice
Reddit should launch its own version of Polymarkets integrated into any subreddit that wants it. RDDT to the moon.

reddit.com
u/Kill_4209 — 21 days ago
▲ 51 r/ChatGPT

Recreate the notebook movie poster with trump and Netanyahu

Perfect. Make the river their boat is in the straight of Hormuz

u/Kill_4209 — 23 days ago

Reddit (RDDT) is scheduled to release its Q1 2026 earnings on April 30, 2026, after the market closes. Analysts are anticipating significant growth, with revenue projections around $607 million (roughly 57% year-over-year increase) and an expected earnings per share (EPS) of approximately $0.62. Strong user growth and ad revenue are key drivers for the quarter. 

Key Expectations for Q1 2026

Earnings Date: April 30, 2026.

Revenue Forecast: $595 million to $605 million (52% to 54% year-over-year growth).

**Earnings Per Share (EPS):**Estimated at $0.62.

Key Drivers: Growth in advertising revenue, particularly through improved ad tech, increased user base, and continued expansion of data licensing. 

Previous Quarter Performance (Q4 2025 Context)

Revenue: Reported $725.61 million, significantly beating estimates.

EPS: Reported $1.24, beating the consensus estimate of $0.96.

Growth: Revenue was up 69.7% compared to the same quarter in the previous year. 

reddit.com
u/Kill_4209 — 23 days ago