I'm not actually a Thunder fan, but haven't seen anyone talking about this and think it's interesting given that they have an extremely stacked and deep team, but will also have some significant cap problems to solve in the second apron era.
Next season, the second apron is projected at 222 million. After years of being comfortably under the second apron and even the luxury tax, that's over for OKC. If they brought this year's squad back, they'd be over 250 million https://www.basketball-reference.com/contracts/OKC.html
Despite that being a decent gap, this is realistically the year for them to get under the cap - in another year, Shai will get a $20 million raise, and there'll quickly be other players like Cason Wallace, and later Ajay Mitchell to extend. With the NBA having severe roster building/cost to owner penalties for being above the second apron three years out of 5, this is the opportunity to push off starting the clock for another season.
The Plan:
1. Offload Dort and Wiggins' contracts via trade:
I think Sam Presti will try to find a trade partner with cap space looking for stronger perimeter defense, and try to flip Lu Dort for a first round pick. Dort has an 18.2 million team option for next season (shown in the link above). While Dort has been a starter and a key piece in their rise, they have the kind of guard and wing depth where he's not irreplaceable.
Wiggins is the odd man out - a good shooter, a solid defender, but still not someone who can crack their playoff rotation despite scoring in the double digits in the regular season. Someone would love to have him on their bench. If they can offload their salaries (probably to different teams), it would free up roughly 27.4 million next season.
2. Decline Kenrich Williams' option
This one is a fairly obvious casualty. He's a beloved locker room presence, a solid player and has been in the rotation in the regular season in the past, but those days are over. Next year, with last year's 15th pick Thomas Sorber getting healthy, he might have fallen out of the rotation naturally. Letting him go gives the Thunder a chance to cut another $7.1 million.
3. Give Hartenstein a long-term extension, with his salary starting at a lower figure than next year's team option
Initially, a lot of people assumed when Hartenstein was signed that eventually the Thunder would let him go when facing his $28 million team option next season, but I think he's too important.
His ability to play the center position, maximizing Chet at the four while playing within the system and not taking shots away from their top players make him a perfect fit in their system. I think they give him a big reward, in the form of a long-term extension for the recently turned 28-year-old big. I think that it would be for four or five years, with a slightly lower annual value than the $28,500,000 he would make if they accepted his team option, and for 2026-2027 (with the salary ascending by year) I think it will save them about another $5 million.
For those counting at home, at this point, the Thunder would have cut close to $40 million from a $250 million starting point, giving a little about $12 million in wiggle room for the last three players on their roster to stay under the second apron.
4. Trade up in the draft, fill out last two roster spots
The Thunder have two mid first round picks in 2026 (from LAC and Philly), but I think they only use one because they still have an obscene number of first round picks coming in future years.
They trade up into the bottom of the top ten, get their guy (Yaxel Lendeborg gets mentioned a lot as a potential target, but you never really know with Presti until the moment of), and make that the 13th roster spot. Based on cap figures, the tenth overall pick next season will likely make somewhere around $6-$7 million next season, and I expect they'll be around that range if not slightly higher.
For the last two spots, I think they'll sign a veteran as their 14th man for the minimum, maybe one who can play the three or the four in a pinch for additional depth. This is just a shot in the dark, but maybe something like a Jeff Green return after 15 years.
Then, for their 15th spot, they do have a second round pick from the Mavericks. I think they'll let that guy fight it out for the final spot with guys they've had on two way contracts, like 2025 second round pick Brooks Barnhizer. The losers will get two-ways.
Next year's team depth chart:
After all of those moves to get under the second apron for one more year (or close enough that it would take a tiny tweak at the trade deadline), I think the Thunder will be able to keep their core relatively in tact.
Guards/Wings: SGA, JDub, Ajay Mitchell, Cason Wallace, McCain, Joe, Caruso, Topic
Bigs: Chet, Hartenstein, Jaylin Williams, Thomas Sorber, Top ten pick, Veteran bench warmer, second round pick or previous two way guy (could really be any position)
The data paints an interesting picture vs. often repeated narratives in NBA discourse.
In their current series
Pistons are +6
Spurs are +16
Lakers are +11
This isn't a post praising defensive box plus minus. The whole box plus minus stat clearly needs to be adjusted the way it was when Westbrook put up historic numbers, but for whatever reason it hasn't been for Jokic.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/playoffs/NBA_2026_advanced.html#advanced_stats::dbpm
As you can see above, Jokic was graded as the 13th best defender by the frequently cited statistic in the first round, and was ranked above a number of elite defenders.
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/opponent-shooting?&PlayerPosition=C&TeamID=0
Above shows that the Timberwolves averaged 33.4 points in the paint against him. Despite Jokic's offensive contributions, the Nuggets were a -82 in points in the paint differential over six games
https://www.nba.com/stats/players/opponent-shooting?&PlayerPosition=C&TeamID=0
Jokic finished the series averaging 25-13-9, shooting 44% from the field and 19% from three.
In terms of points in the paint, the Nuggets were, despite Jokic's offensive production
Game 1 - a -12 : https://www.espn.com/nba/matchup/_/gameId/401869188
Game 2 - a -12 https://www.espn.com/nba/matchup/_/gameId/401869395
Game 3 - a -34 https://www.espn.com/nba/matchup/_/gameId/401869398
Game 4 - a -12 https://www.espn.com/nba/matchup/_/gameId/401869399
Game 5 - a plus 12 https://www.espn.com/nba/matchup/_/gameId/401869401
Game 6 - a -24 https://www.espn.com/nba/matchup/_/gameId/401869402
In total, they were outscored by 82 points in the paint, and an average of 13.7
I know games are going on right now, but this is actually kind of relevant, and something that I found interesting without knowing the root cause.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2003.html 03 Spurs went to six
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/MIA/2006.html 06 Heat dropped two
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2008.html 08 Celtics dropped at least two in every round
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/LAL/2010.html 2010 Lakers had a very competitive series vs the young, upstart OKC Thunder
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/DAL/2011.html 2011 Mavs went to six vs Portland
https://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/SAS/2014.html 2014 Spurs actually went seven vs. Rick Carlisle's Mavs
Since then, every NBA champion has won their first round series in five games or less, and they generally haven't been competitive. Anyone else have any reason why that might be a thing that's happened, where first round series are much less competitive with top teams? Part of it is the West being stacked at that time, but there are two East champs in there as well.