AGI will come from “thoughts” we can read ... LLMs are an expensive industrial process, not conventional PC software. AI cannot trivially self-improve as it could were it mostly code

"Before LLMs I believed the analogy—I think it was Yud’s—that making AI via chatbots was like making real flowers by getting really good at sculpting wax. For most of the past 25 years, I thought we’d hit RSI via RL before anything learned English.

In that regard, I see us as lucky. AGI will come from “thoughts” we can read, literally. As important, LLMs are an expensive industrial process, not conventional PC software. AI cannot trivially self-improve as it could were it mostly code—as many assumed it would be.

None of this was guaranteed. AGI was feared to happen in a basement. It was supposed to explode.

Because it doesn’t, we can let capabilities out one by one. We can see what genuinely sucks about AI. We can integrate, adjust, and live in the Kurzweilian line-fitting world.

Even if it’s been unclear at times how long our stay is, I’m grateful we’re here."

- @goodside on Twitter

x.com
u/Liface — 8 days ago

Road to 100 Long COVID Interventions: #41 - Amantadine

Amantadine is a "brain drug", a NMDA receptor antagonist (in the same broad bucket as DXM) and a dopaminergic, an antiviral that's also used for Parkinson's and drug-induced movement disorders. It's structurally related to the nootropic bromantane, which I use on occasion for a bit of clean energy, but which always causes insomnia for me.

I'm experimenting with brain drugs for symptom reduction as I'm quite severe with post-COVID ME (almost completely bedbound), while I try and fix my root cause. I looked at amantadine, lamotrigine, and memantine, but it seemed like amantadine was the best fit for my symptoms.

Dose: 25mg in liquid solution, about 1/4 of a standard dose, mid-morning

What happened:

  • As it kicked in I started feeling partially numb throughout my body, with a strong urge to shut my eyes.
  • I entered a parasympathetic coma-like state for a bit, and was more adrenalized at sudden sounds.
  • After a couple hours most of that disappeared, leaving me overstimulated and unable to concentrate. I still felt kind of numb.
  • My vision and light tolerance also got worse.
  • I slept better than I have in a while. Not sure if this was correlated.

The adverse reaction was similar to what I experienced with DXM, which fits given the shared NMDA antagonism. What's interesting is that bromantane gave me none of this.

The half-life is long at ~15h, so the effect lasted into the next day.

Verdict: Definitely not trying again.

Per my scraping of reddit posts and comments mentioning amantadine, 21% worsened, with major side effects being insomnia, anxiety, headache, dizziness, nausea. Basically overstimulation. However, 55% reported that they felt better.

If anyone else has tried Amantadine, please leave your anecdote in the comments!


Previously: Meldonium

u/Liface — 8 days ago
▲ 125 r/covidlonghaulers+1 crossposts

The first comprehensive listing of Long COVID doctors and clinics in the UK

For years, we've seen many posts from people in the UK asking about Long COVID doctors, with information dispersed only among comment replies and word of mouth.

We decided to make things more efficient by creating the first-ever comprehensive listing for Long COVID doctors and clinics in the UK!

http://lcmedata.org/ukdocs 🇬🇧

We painstakingly collated hundreds of comments from Reddit, Twitter, Facebook, and group chats with only the most-rated doctors, pricing/visit info, and pros and cons from real patients.

25 doctors and clinics are listed, from NHS to private specialists, and pharmacies for LDN and ketotifen.

This is a living document and will be continually updated. Suggestions and updates welcome!

---

This data was collected and organized by Highly Agentic LC/ME, a group of patients from tech and research backgrounds volunteering their time to give back to the community.

lcmedata.org
u/Liface — 5 days ago

UC Berkeley CALM Program Research Opportunities

Just received this in my inbox, somehow like 6 years after signing up for updates.

---

Hi there,

Thanks for signing up to hear more about the research taking place in the CALM Program. Here's some information regarding our current research studies: 

Healthy Lifestyles for Bipolar Disorder

Can dietary changes improve stability for people with bipolar disorder?

Our landmark study examines how dietary interventions combined with medication might help people with bipolar disorder. This is the largest study of its kind.

Eligibility:

Age 18-65 with bipolar disorder diagnosis

Experiencing sleep concerns or irregular daily rhythms

Living in US, UK, Canada, Australia or India

Compensation: $25/hour for assessments after enrollment

Day-Night Rhythms in Bipolar Disorder

Help us understand daily rhythms. |  rhythms-rewards@berkeley.edu

We're recruiting both people with bipolar disorder and those with no mood disorder history.

Includes:

Online interviews and surveys

Mobile games and activity logs

International study with an optional MRI scan for locals 

Planned Compensation: $25/hour after enrollment

Learn more and apply →

https://calm.berkeley.edu/participate-in-psychology-research/

u/Liface — 11 days ago

Road to 100 Long COVID Interventions: #42 - Meldonium

I have the ME subtype of Long COVID and I'm severe (bedbound). I believe that in an uncertain game, the best strategy is to increase one's surface area to luck. So I'm going to try as many interventions as possible to find the ones that work for me, and I figured I'd start a series out of it to shed light on some underreported interventions.

Here are my full symptoms, disease progression, and list of interventions I've tried so far.

Meldonium

Meldonium (brand name Mildronate) is a Latvian drug that shifts your metabolism away from fatty acid oxidation toward glucose oxidation, which is a more oxygen-efficient way to make ATP. It's most famous as the substance Maria Sharapova tested positive for that got her banned from tennis for a while. It isn't approved in the US, so it can pretty much only be bought from Russian pharmacies (I used r/cosmicnootropic).

Dose: 250mg, about 1/4 of a standard dose, in the morning

What happened:

  • Within an hour I felt very warm and had to turn the AC down a couple degrees.
  • No increase in energy at all.
  • That night my sleep was unusually fragmented. I woke up at 3:30 AM and was up for a couple hours, though eventually I did get back to sleep.
  • Around 24 hours after taking it, I started feeling wiped out, eyes droopy, that pressure between the eyebrows that makes you want to close them. At first it didn't feel like my usual PEM.
  • By the afternoon it had folded into increased lactate/heaviness in my lower muscles (a typical PEM signal) and I was burying my head in my pillow.

Luckily I was scheduled to take an Ativan, which pretty much immediately pulled me out of it.

I didn't do anything out of the ordinary exertion-wise, so I lean towards this being a direct reaction to the drug.

Verdict: Not worth the risk to increase dosage, and many other things to try, so I won't be taking it again.

That said, the balance of reports on Reddit is clearly positive. Most people who posted about Meldonium report a benefit, and my one bad experience is just a single data point against a lot of good ones. But a few people have reported issues too:

If anyone else has tried Meldonium, please leave your anecdote in the comments!

u/Liface — 11 days ago

New trial result: it's not looking good for immunoadsorption and the Elisa GCPR antibodies test

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.lanepe.2026.101744

This was the first proper randomized trial with a sham-treatment control group. Almost all patients tested positive using the Elisa test for GCPR antibodies.

Per follow-up testing, immunoadsorption did exactly what it's supposed to do - it stripped out the autoantibodies - but symptoms didn't improve at all vs controls. No movement on fatigue, function, brain fog, or grip strength. In the milder patients it actually looked slightly worse. Plus more side effects (some blood clots).

This fits the wider pattern we're seeing: the blood-plasma-swap trial last year found nothing, and both rituximab trials failed. So that's three different "reset the immune system" approaches all coming back empty in controlled trials - even though the uncontrolled case reports kept looking promising.

reddit.com
u/Liface — 18 days ago

I analyzed 41 Reddit baricitinib anecdotes to find out outcome stats, onset timing, dosing, testing, and side effects!

Previously: I analyzed all Long COVID/ME rapamycin anecdotes on Reddit

I have a 3.3 million record database on my computer of every post from 14 Long COVID and ME subreddits. De-duplicated to one baricitinib record per username and ran each anecdote through Claude Code with a structured prompt, then explored the bits that looked interesting.

Of 41 unique Redditors who took baricitinib, 36 reported a clear outcome: 64% reported at least partial benefit, 25% saw no effect, and 11% got worse.

Outcome n % of takers
Very effective 10 28%
Somewhat effective 13 36%
No effect 9 25%
Somewhat worse 1 3%
Much worse 3 8%

(keep in mind there is a MASSIVE selection bias here, the stats are likely not this good)

Time to effect

Of 23 positive responders, 11 gave a specific time to first noticing anything (from first dose):

Time to first effect n
<2 weeks 6
2-6 weeks 5
not stated 12

Four felt something within the first few days, a couple even on day one ("PEM went away almost instantly"). Most who gave a time landed in the 1-3 week range. Onset did NOT track dose - fast and slow responders were on similar doses, so onset looks to be pretty binary and individual.

Testing

Baricitinib is an immune drug, and a chunk of people ran inflammatory labs around it - cytokine panels, interferon, IncellDx-style immune panels, IL-6/IL-8, ANA. I split takers by whether they tested before starting:

  • 10 of 41 tested beforehand; 9 said the labs guided the decision; 10 also re-tested after (to track response or for safety monitoring).
  • People who tested first responded better. 77% of them got better and zero reported no effect, vs 59% got better / 33% no-effect among those who didn't test.
  • But testing did NOT prevent bad reactions. 2 of the 4 who got worse had tested beforehand - one was even guided by labs. However, the serious reactions (one hospitalization with electrolyte/kidney issues + MCAS flare, one Lyme reactivation, early flares) looked idiosyncratic and safety-related, not something the inflammatory panels would have predicted.

Dose

4 mg/day was by far the most common target. Several people titrated up from 1-2 mg, usually for tolerability rather than because more worked better. A few held 2 mg (sometimes dose-reduced for kidney function) and still improved.

What improved (for responders)

Symptom % of responders
Energy / fatigue 43%
Brain fog 39%
PEM 30%
Pain 30%
Overall / back toward baseline 17%
Exercise tolerance 13%
POTS / dysautonomia 9%
Sleep 4%
Mood 4%
MCAS 4%
Gut 4%

Side effects (% of everyone who took it)

Side effect %
Infections (URIs, UTIs, cold sores) 7%
Acne / rash 5%
GI upset 5%
Headache 5%
MCAS flare 2%

The worse-reaction profile

Only 4 of 36 worsened, but the bad ones were pretty bad: a trial participant hospitalized with severe electrolyte/kidney problems and a months-long MCAS flare, a Lyme reactivation, and two people who flared hard in the first week or two and had to stop.

Caveats

  • Self-reported, uncontrolled,cqne selection-bias - people who improve are really motivated to post, especially about an exotic drug, and Long COVID can fluctuate on its own, so some "responses" are noise.
  • Many were on concurrent treatments (SCIG, other immune meds, big supplement stacks) - attribution to baricitinib alone can be tougher with a non-immediate onset.
  • The LLM classification is approximate and the testing/onset splits run on small subsets, so trust the rankings more than the exact decimals.

Thinking about what to do next: Maraviroc? Stellate ganglion block? I'm open to requests.

reddit.com
u/Liface — 24 days ago

I analyzed all Long COVID/ME rapamycin anecdotes on Reddit [CORRECTED]

If you're seeing double... I'm reposting to correct a data error!

I had scraped the full history of 11 LC/ME subs via the free Arctic Shift API for Reddit, then loaded the 213K posts + 1.7 million comments into a SQLite database.

But... I realized the original version of this post didn't de-duplicate by username - so people who posted multiple times (one user had 28 separate posts) got counted as multiple separate "people." Don't do data analysis with brainfog, folks!

I now have de-duplicated to one record per username and re-ran each first-person rapamycin anecdote through Claude with a structured prompt, then, using my curiosity, explored it further.

Luckily, not too much changed.

  • "Takers" dropped from 264 to 110 unique people - the rest were repeat posts by the same users.
  • got better changed from 42% to 45%; got worse from 12% to 19%.
  • "Mostly PEM-specific" was wrong - PEM-specific improvement is actually 24%; 42% just report general improvement with no specific symptom named, and energy/fatigue (30%) is the most-named.
  • Onset is not really bimodal - the "2 month tail" was mostly an artifact of repeat posts plus a bug where I'd grabbed a later-update date instead of true onset. It actually skews early (<2 weeks).

Summary

Of 95 people who took rapamycin and reported a clear outcome, 53% reported at least partial benefit, 22% got worse...

Outcome n % of takers
Very effective 7 7%
Somewhat effective 43 45%
No effect 24 25%
Somewhat worse 16 17%
Much worse 5 5%

Onset

Of 50 responders, 30 gave a specific time to first noticing anything (measured from their first dose):

Time to first effect n
<2 weeks 17
2-6 weeks 8
6 weeks-3 months 4
&gt;3 months 1
not stated 20

Most who gave a time felt something within 2 weeks, several on the very first dose. Almost no one took longer than a couple of months to notice a positive effect. Note this is time from starting the drug, not time after reaching an effective dose - we couldn't cleanly isolate the latter.

The dose-vs-time insight

Dose and time-on-drug are normally entangled because everyone titrates. Trying to pull them apart, here's what held up:

  • Onset timing is NOT dose-dependent - this surprised me. I expected the fast responders to be the ones who started high. They weren't. Fast responders (felt it within 2 weeks) and slow ones (2 months) had basically the same average dose at onset (6mg), people sitting at 6mg showed up in both buckets, and starting straight at a high dose was no faster than crawling up (median onset 3 weeks either way; small n). How fast you respond looks individual, not dose-driven.
  • But whether you respond at all does look dose-related - just not "more = better." One responder got nothing at 2mg and nothing at 6mg, but responded cleanly at 4mg. Others respond at just 1-2mg ("1mg twice a week, best I'd felt in 30 years"). It reads like a per-person window, not a straight line.
  • Holding a sub-effective dose longer doesn't do anything. One person: 6mg for 8 months = "very minor"; bumped to 15mg = "worthwhile improvement." Another reached 6mg and held it \a year: "can't say it helped much." If a dose isn't working, waiting longer at it mostly didn't help - changing the dose did.
  • Why titrate at all, then? Tolerability and crash-risk. People who hit side effects, dropped back, and re-approached could later tolerate the same target dose. And bad reactions can trigger PEM, then sometimes a lasting baseline drop. So titration is just risk mitigation, not a requirement for efficacy.

WHAT IMPROVED (for responders)

Symptom % of responders
General / overall function (no specific symptom named) 42%
Energy / fatigue 30%
PEM 24%
Brain fog 18%
Inflammation / immune 12%
Pain 10%
POTS / dysautonomia 8%
Mood / anxiety 6%
Gut / IBS 6%
Sleep 4%

SIDE EFFECTS (% of everyone who took it)

Side effect %
Flu-like spell after a dose 9%
Tiredness in the days after a dose 7%
Mouth / canker sores 6%
High cholesterol / lipids 4%
Headache 4%
Infections 3%
GI / diarrhea 2%
Nausea 2%
Rash / skin 2%
Insomnia 2%
Anxiety 1%

The worse-reaction profile

The 19% who worsened tended to do so quickly (hours to days) and even at low doses (1-2mg) - adverse reactions don't track dose, they hit even at the bottom of the range. Most common: flu-like malaise for a few days post-dose, symptom amplification, and a few true allergic reactions.

Caveats

  • About half of responders were on other concurrent treatments (NAD infusions, IVIG, LDN, major diet changes, supplement stacks). Attribution to rapamycin alone is shaky for those.
  • This is self-reported, uncontrolled, and selection-biased - people who improve post more, and our conditions naturally fluctuate, so some of these "responses" are probably noise rather than the drug.
  • The LLM classification is approximate - I didn't hand-verify every anecdote, and the dose/onset splits run on small subsets, so treat the rankings as more reliable than the exact numbers.

What's next: I'm thinking maraviroc or baricitinib. Want to focus on interventions that people are doing with little to no trial data.

reddit.com
u/Liface — 27 days ago

I analyzed all 413 Long COVID/ME rapamycin anecdotes on Reddit. Here's what I found.

I scraped the full history of 11 LC/ME subs via the free Arctic Shift API for Reddit, then loaded the 213K posts + 1.7 million comments into a SQLite database. I then ran all 413 first-person rapamycin candidate anecdotes through a small LLM (Claude Haiku) with a structured prompt, then, using my curiosity, explored it further.

Summary

Of 264 people who personally took rapamycin and described an outcome, 42% reported at least partial benefit, 12% got worse, and the benefit is mostly PEM-specific, not a baseline cure. Onset is bimodal - a big chunk feel it within a week, another cluster around 2 months - but it doesn't track dose (more below).

264 people confirmed taking rapamycin themselves. Outcomes:

Outcome n % of takers
Effective (clear) 29 11%
Partial (real but limited) 81 31%
No effect 35 13%
Worse 32 12%
Too early to tell 56 21%
Unclear 31 12%

Onset

Of 45 responders who gave a specific time to first noticing anything (measured from their first dose, so it bakes in titration time):

Time to first effect n
0-7 days 12
8-21 days 6
3-6 weeks 4
~6 weeks-2 months 7
&gt;2 months 16

About 40% felt something within 3 weeks, and a dozen felt it within a week - several on the very first dose. The large ">2 months" tail is real but disproportionately confounded (see below) or vague. Note this is time from starting the drug, not time after reaching an effective dose - I couldn't cleanly isolate the latter.

The dose-vs-time insight

Dose and time-on-drug are normally entangled because everyone titrates. Trying to pull them apart, here's what held up - and what didn't:

  • Onset timing is NOT dose-dependent - this surprised me. I expected the fast responders to be the ones who started high. They weren't. Fast responders (felt it within ~2 weeks) and slow ones (~2 months) had basically the same average dose at onset (~6mg), people sitting at 6mg showed up in both buckets, and starting straight at a high dose was no faster than crawling up (median onset ~3 weeks either way; small n). How fast you respond looks individual, not dose-driven.
  • But whether you respond at all does look dose-related - just not "more = better." One responder got nothing at 2mg and nothing at 6mg, but responded cleanly at 4mg. Others respond at just 1-2mg ("1mg twice a week, best I'd felt in 30 years"). It reads like a per-person window, not a straight line.
  • Holding a sub-effective dose longer doesn't do anything. One person: 6mg for 8 months = "very minor"; bumped to 15mg = "worthwhile improvement." Another reached 6mg and held it ~a year: "can't say it helped much." If a dose isn't working, waiting longer at it mostly didn't help - changing the dose did.
  • Why titrate at all, then? Tolerability and crash-risk. People who hit side effects, dropped back, and re-approached could later tolerate the same target dose. And bad reactions can trigger PEM, then sometimes a lasting baseline drop. So titration is just risk mitigation, not a requirement for efficacy.

WHAT IMPROVED (among responders)

Symptom % of responders
PEM 59%
Fatigue 52%
Energy 41%
Brain fog 32%
Baseline / overall function 30%
POTS / dysautonomia 16%
Mood / anxiety 9%
Pain 9%
Exercise tolerance 7%
Sleep 7%
Inflammation 7%
Gut / IBS 5%

SIDE EFFECTS (% of everyone who took it)

Side effect %
Tiredness in the days after a dose 19%
Mouth / canker sores 10%
Headache 7%
Insomnia 6%
High cholesterol / lipids 5%
GI / diarrhea 4%
Nausea 4%
Infections 3%
Flu-like malaise 3%
Rash / skin 3%
Anxiety 2%
Sore throat 2%
Hair loss <1%

The worse-reaction profile

The 12% who worsened tended to do so quickly (hours to days) and even at low doses (1-2mg) - adverse reactions don't track dose, they hit even at the bottom of the range. Most common: flu-like malaise for a few days post-dose, symptom amplification, and a few true allergic reactions.

Caveats

  • 46% of responders were on other concurrent treatments (NAD infusions, IVIG, LDN, major diet changes, supplement stacks). Attribution to rapamycin alone is shaky for those.
  • This is self-reported, uncontrolled, and selection-biased - people who improve post more, and our conditions naturally fluctuate, so some of these "responses" are probably noise rather than the drug.
  • Side-effect numbers are floors, not true incidence - people only mention a side effect when they had one, so the real rates are higher.
  • The LLM classification is approximate - I didn't hand-verify all 400+ anecdotes, and the dose/onset splits run on small subsets, so treat the rankings as more reliable than the exact numbers.
reddit.com
u/Liface — 28 days ago

SSC/ACX posts that are based on cognitive biases/logical fallacies

I was thinking about how often I send SSC posts to people to explain a concept and decided to make the list:

Did I miss any?

u/Liface — 1 month ago

If you've used orexin antagonists for insomnia (Quviviq/daridorexant, etc.), did you experience a loss of effect over time?

If you've used orexin antagonists (Quviviq/daridorexant, Belsomra/suvorexant, Dayvigo/lemborexant, vornorexant)

Did you experience a loss of effect over time?

View Poll

reddit.com
u/Liface — 1 month ago
▲ 175 r/VaxRecoveryGroup+1 crossposts

Excited to present our results from the first-ever patient survey on GLP-1s for Long COVID!

We posted here last month announcing the Treatment Experiences Survey project, a patient-led project that aims to provide the community with critical data about experimental treatments that still don't have clinical evidence.

Many of you formed the 120-respondent pool for our first survey on GLP-1s, and we're excited to announce the results!

The response to these drugs, as expected, was extreme - while a promising 53% reported improvement, 28% worsened, some remaining below their baseline long after their last dose.

Other findings:

(note here that most subgroup analyses were not statistically significant due to small sample sizes, so please take these with a grain of salt)

  • GLP-1s take effect fast. Responders noticed improvement within days, some on the first day! On the other hand, patients who felt nothing by 4–6 weeks almost universally ended up as non-responders.
  • POTS/dysautonomia patients fared worse than average. This is consistent with GLP-1s known effects on the autonomic nervous system.
  • Tirzepatide had a higher proportion of "very much improved" patients. Possibly consistent with the stronger anti-inflammatory effects of dual GIP/GLP-1 agonism.
  • Brain fog was the most commonly improved symptom (44%), followed by fatigue (37%) and exercise tolerance (27%).
  • Severe (bedbound) patients had the worst results: only 35% improved while 40% worsened, nearly double the overall worsening rate.
  • Insomnia in the first few days was an early warning sign for patients who eventually worsened.

Full results, charts, and the anonymized dataset are all at the link above.

Happy to answer questions below, and we're also looking for suggestions on the next treatment to survey!

lcmedata.org
u/Liface — 2 months ago

I like to buy bagels a dozen at a time, sliced, pop them in the freezer, and eat a bagel half with cream cheese each morning.

I've been doing this with my go-to, Tompkins Square Bagels, but would like to perhaps expand to diversify my taste (I'm in LES).

Any recommendations? I'm not sure if some shops make bagels that would freeze better than others. I love Pop Up Bagels, for example, but they're meant to be eaten fresh.

reddit.com
u/Liface — 2 months ago
▲ 10 r/cfs

LC/ME Treatment Experience Surveys are run by a group of patients who were fed up with taking experimental treatments without having adequate community data.

Starting with GLP-1s, we're running focused surveys on one treatment at a time, collecting only the most useful information on subtype, dosing, effect duration, and patient differences, and short enough so that even the most severe patients can answer in five minutes on a smartphone.

We then publish the results within weeks, giving the community the information it needs to safely evaluate the treatment.

Our survey is open for just two more days. Help us get as many anecdotes as possible to improve the quality of our data!

u/Liface — 2 months ago