u/Low-Pollution-262

Drone company market caps are now in the billions -

- Kratos
- Ondas
- Nero
- Skydio

and a lot more , all scaling fast.

- Large defense primes are structurally reallocating budget into unmanned systems. Not a one-off cycle.

- Less noticed: the battery pack makers underneath them are guiding 40%+ YoY revenue growth. KULR, Upgrade Energy (now UMAC), Titan and others.

- Every autonomous system needs high energy density. Graphite physically can’t deliver it. Endurance is the spec every program office cares about.

- If defense spend on unmanned keeps compounding, high-end battery makers are set up for record CAGR over the next 5 years.

Is anyone seeing a drone supercycle just beginning?

- Ondas recently secured a deal with a stadium.
- Walmart, Amazon, and Doordash are all entering the delivery market.
- There’s a lot happening in the defence sector - big players all entering into unmanned systems
- Joby Beta and Archer competing fiercely in the eVTOL space.

Crucially, all these businesses depend on high-end batteries to scale.

So my point - if a supercycle kicks in, it’ll benefit Amprius and other high-end battery makers.

Amprius has consistently exceeded expectations for three quarters in a row

$AMPX - beat, raised, margin expanding, nobody’s watching

Q2 2026:

Revenue $34.0M, +126% YoY, +19% QoQ

Gross margin 9% → 20% → 27% in just three quarters, targeting 30%.

Adj EBITDA -$1.0M, guiding to +$4M FY

Most importantly - Guidance raised 2nd straight quarter: $140M rev, 28%+ margin

$74.5M cash, no debt, capital-light (contract mfg, Korea + US)

Order book ( interesting and I feel next year will be better) :

- $24M from new European drone maker

- Stark Future multi-year e-moto deal, $100M+ opportunity from 2027

- Redwire Stalker Block 30 (long-endurance ISR) now runs SiCore

Already in AeroVironment, BAE, Airbus/AALTO, Nokia, Matternet, Teledyne, DoD

Why the TAM keeps stacking:

- DAWG ~$58B for autonomous systems

- NATO + Japan defense drone budgets ramping

- eVTOL approaching commercial launch

- Humanoid robotics entering production

All of it needs energy density graphite / carbon can’t physically hit

450-500 Wh/kg, 10C discharge, NDAA-compliant. Qualification with a defense prime takes 18-36 months to displace - that’s the moat.

Very few battery companies have gone from lab to pilot line to mass production - Amprius is now scaling with contract manufacturing, so less Capex and faster scale - already unlocked over 2GWh production capacity equivalent to over 1.5-1.8B in plausible revenue.

$1.7B market cap. ~60% off highs. Beat and raised anyway.

Not financial advice.

$AMPX - beat, raised, margin expanding, nobody’s watching

Q2 2026:

Revenue $34.0M, +126% YoY, +19% QoQ

Gross margin 9% → 20% → 27% in just three quarters, targeting 30%.

Adj EBITDA -$1.0M, guiding to +$4M FY

Most importantly - Guidance raised 2nd straight quarter: $140M rev, 28%+ margin

$74.5M cash, no debt, capital-light (contract mfg, Korea + US)

Order book ( interesting and I feel next year will be better) :

- $24M from new European drone maker

- Stark Future multi-year e-moto deal, $100M+ opportunity from 2027

- Redwire Stalker Block 30 (long-endurance ISR) now runs SiCore

Already in AeroVironment, BAE, Airbus/AALTO, Nokia, Matternet, Teledyne, DoD

Why the TAM keeps stacking:

- DAWG ~$58B for autonomous systems

- NATO + Japan defense drone budgets ramping

- eVTOL approaching commercial launch

- Humanoid robotics entering production

All of it needs energy density graphite / carbon can’t physically hit

450-500 Wh/kg, 10C discharge, NDAA-compliant. Qualification with a defense prime takes 18-36 months to displace - that’s the moat.

Very few battery companies have gone from lab to pilot line to mass production - Amprius is now scaling with contract manufacturing, so less Capex and faster scale - already unlocked over 2GWh production capacity equivalent to over 1.5-1.8B in plausible revenue.

$1.4B market cap. ~60% off highs. Beat and raised anyway.

Not financial advice.

Excited by this announcement , it’s opening of new revenue stream for Archer.

The Marurbeni Group, a major player in Japan, this is a great validation of Halo !

What do you think the result of today will be?

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