u/MWiatrak2077

A couple weeks ago as a proud lib who wants to pretend everything is perfect, I started a spreadsheet tracking some of the more recent polling in the MI Senate race between AES and Rogers.

As of right now, per the last 9 polls taken (when I started, - no reasoning as to why it's not 10+), Rogers currently leads AES 45.0% to 44.9%.

Now, granted, it's been heavily shifting in AES's favor as the polling post-Dem Primary has been very favorable to him (leads 47.2-44.6 in the 5 post-primary polls.)

However, something I've noticed as I was diving into the crosstabs, is that almost every poll taken, with the exception of 1, projects very bearish turnout for the Democratic Party this November.

Of course, not every poll has released their full party ID crosstabs, so I had to work backwards from Dem%, Rep%, Ind% splits, - but as it stands, the last 9 polls aggregate a ~D+1.8 environment in Michigan (38.8D, 37R, 20.6I).

In the 2018 Senate election in MI, the Party ID numbers, per CNN exit polls, was 39D, 31R, 30I. The overall popular vote in MI that year (in the federal House elections) was D+7.6.

In true "unskewing the polls" fashion, I took to aggregating the polls, and reweighing them with 2018 Party ID numbers. That turns Rogers's +0.1% lead into a +5.4% lead for AES.

I do understand that every election has different electorates, and for instance, the Party ID numbers for this Senate seat in 2020 (Peters vs. James) was TIED. However, that was a presidential election year, and everything else seems to indicate that Michigan will, at the very least, be a D+5 state, - especially considering Benson's numbers over James in the coinciding Gubernatorial Election.

The numbers just seem... Very pessimistic for Dems? A recent Civiq's poll shows Trump down with a 59% disapproval rating amongst Michiganders, and the GOP overall very unpopular.

Negative polarization could definitely make a play here. AES has bad favorables in MI, and it could drive conservative voters who normally stay home if it's a generic lib on the Dem ballot, out to the polls.

Even still, I think projecting anything less than a D+3 environment in MI, given recent history, and looking at recent GOP performances within the state (State Senate District 35 special election, for instance), paints a very negative picture for the GOP in MI.

Again, I am a big lib, and this is probably cope (although AES is leading in all major aggregates now), however, I am not a pollster, and I would love a discussion with someone who is more informed than me on this subject, thank you.

Incredibly gritty series from Brunson. The efficiency numbers aren't the prettiest (42/39/86 shooting splits, 54% TS, 47.5% eFG), but the Knicks needed someone to take the scoring load and goddamn did he do it. Incredible series and incredible performance.

source: https://www.statmuse.com/ask/brunson-last-5-games?l=nba

Ever since Cade drank his own Crunk Juice the beast has been unleashed. 55% from 3 on 6 attempts a game. 5-0 record. Most underrated thing is that he's putting up 31/7 on elite efficiency while being a good/great defender on the other end.

---

source: https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=cade+cunningham+last+5+games lol

Per PBPStats, our starting lineup of Cade/Ausar/Dunc/Unc/Duren has an Offensive Rating of 123.36 (#1 in reg. season), and a Defensive Rating of 107.02 (also would be #1 in reg. season), for a Net Rating of +16.34. This lineup shoots 54.23% from the field, while our opponents against this group shoot just 45.93% from the field. And for all the spacing issues, this unit is shooting 40.8% from 3.

Obviously this starts with Cade, but man I don't think this unit is merely as vaunted without Ausar. Having a star wing who can guard literally anyone AND rebound/play-make is such an unbelievable asset to have.

And, for the shit we can give Duren (rightfully deserved at points), the team is about 5 points better per 100 possessions with him on the court this postseason. Same cannot be said for Beef Stew unfortunately, who is about 10 points underwater per 100 possessions this postseason.

Anyway, while we definitely need a more reliable secondary ball-handler, god man, I really hope we don't rock the boat with this starting lineup. These 5 are LEGIT and I hope we retain all of them going into the offseason.

2023: -365 favorites over the 44-38 Heat. This was the series where they went down 3-0, dramatically tied it up 3-3, and shat the bed in G7.^[1]

2025: -800 over the Knicks. Went 4-0 against them in the regular season. Proceeded to blow 2 15+ point leads in G1 and G2 before losing in 6.^[2]

2026: -900(!) favorites over 76ers. Go up 3-1. You know the rest^[3]

The 2024 ring was very impressive, but like, damn

98 - 78
Box Scores: NBA - Yahoo

 
GAME SUMMARY
West First Round - Game 6 - LAL leads 3-2
Location: Toyota Center
Officials: Scott Foster, Curtis Blair, Kevin Cutler, and Karl Lane

Team	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
Los Angeles Lakers	23	26	22	27	98
Houston Rockets	18	13	24	23	78

 
TEAM STATS

Team	PTS	FG	FG%	3P	3P%	FT	FT%	OREB	TREB	AST	PF	STL	TO	BLK
Los Angeles Lakers	98	36-89	40.4%	12-28	42.9%	14-24	58.3%	15	67	19	19	4	10	9
Houston Rockets	78	28-80	35.0%	5-28	17.9%	17-24	70.8%	8	55	14	23	6	11	9

 
PLAYER STATS

Los Angeles Lakers	MIN	PTS	FGM-A	3PM-A	FTM-A	ORB	DRB	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	PF	±
LeBron James^SF	37:06	28	10-25	2-5	6-8	1	6	7	8	0	0	3	2	26
Rui Hachimura^PF	34:44	21	8-15	5-7	0-0	1	5	6	2	0	1	0	2	20
Deandre Ayton^C	28:10	7	2-6	0-0	3-7	3	13	16	1	0	1	0	5	5
Austin Reaves^SG	30:40	15	7-14	0-4	1-1	0	3	3	2	0	3	2	3	3
Marcus Smart^PG	34:53	7	2-7	2-4	1-2	1	6	7	1	2	2	1	1	25
Luke Kennard	29:00	3	1-6	1-2	0-0	2	1	3	3	1	0	1	1	22
Jaxson Hayes	16:43	5	1-1	0-0	3-4	2	2	4	1	0	1	1	2	21
Jake LaRavia	16:14	7	3-8	1-2	0-0	3	2	5	0	0	1	2	2	2
Adou Thiero	03:07	2	1-1	0-0	0-2	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	-6
Dalton Knecht	03:07	0	0-1	0-1	0-0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	-6
Bronny James	03:07	0	0-1	0-1	0-0	1	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	-6
Nick Smith Jr.	03:07	3	1-4	1-2	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	-6
Maxi Kleber	00:00	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jarred Vanderbilt	00:00	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Luka Dončić	00:00	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Houston Rockets	MIN	PTS	FGM-A	3PM-A	FTM-A	ORB	DRB	REB	AST	STL	BLK	TO	PF	±
Tari Eason^SF	36:59	14	5-14	2-7	2-2	0	5	5	2	3	1	0	4	-14
Jabari Smith Jr.^PF	41:59	9	3-11	1-6	2-3	2	10	12	3	0	1	1	5	-24
Alperen Sengun^C	37:34	17	5-12	0-0	7-10	3	8	11	1	0	2	4	4	-27
Reed Sheppard^SG	36:29	10	4-19	1-10	1-1	0	0	0	1	2	2	1	2	-24
Amen Thompson^PG	44:33	18	7-14	0-0	4-6	1	7	8	3	0	3	2	5	-26
Josh Okogie	13:25	3	1-3	1-2	0-0	1	3	4	1	1	0	2	1	0
Aaron Holiday	11:30	2	1-1	0-0	0-0	0	1	1	2	0	0	0	1	4
Dorian Finney-Smith	07:45	0	0-2	0-1	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	-13
Jae'Sean Tate	05:29	3	1-3	0-2	1-2	0	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	10
JD Davison	02:07	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	7
Clint Capela	02:07	2	1-1	0-0	0-0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	7
Jeff Green	00:00	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Steven Adams	00:00	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Kevin Durant	00:00	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Fred VanVleet	00:00	0	0-0	0-0	0-0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0