u/Matthew_Jay

ICEYE just raised at a €10B valuation(!!). Going to use this to highlight the opportunity

$MDA Chorus has in front of it.

$MDA CHORUS is MDA Space's next generation SAR constellation that has been in the works for almost 5 years.

MDA’s C-band satellite can scan an area up to 700 km wide, even through clouds and at night, spot ships and unusual activity, and then direct a second trailing satellite (funny enough ICEYE's X-band) to take a much sharper close image.

More importantly, $MDA has several key advantages here. It's uniquely positioned in the highest value commercial slice of the SAR market: allied customers that need wide area C-band coverage, confidential access, low latency delivery, etc. but cannot rely on government only systems like RCM or Sentinel.

There is almost no Western commercial alternative at this scale.

$MDA also brings nearly two decades of RADARSAT operations, 1.6M+ archived images since 2008, existing government customers, and what looks to be the only commercially accessible Western C-band capability at this scale.

CHORUS is targeting launch at the end of 2026 and already has 9 signed contracts and 32 LOIs before launch.

And the SAR market is already showing how valuable sovereign platforms are becoming:

- ICEYE: €10B valuation
- Synspective: ~$1.2B USD valuation
- iQPS: ~$930M USD valuation

The bigger point is what CHORUS will do to MDA’s revenue mix and valuation.

MDA’s current geo-intelligence business generates roughly ~$155M USD in annual revenue, so CHORUS is not starting from zero. As the successor to RADARSAT 2, it's inheriting existing RADARSAT customers and 1.6 million+ image archive from 2008 (this is not including the recent 9 signed contracts and 32 LOIs already announced).

These recurring revenues will carry higher margins and should eventually be valued more like

$PL, $BKSY and ICEYE.

If CHORUS scales to $300M to 500M in recurring revenue, it should support a $3B to 5B standalone valuation based on current peers.

ALL of $MDA today is worth $5.4B USD.

Credit: https://x.com/alexdbanks/status/2064302487226679709

MDA Space will start to see more capital rotation into the stock versus other space stocks, in my opinion. Today is another telling sign: the major space companies are down 8–15%, while MDA is down only about 2%.

This could be the inflection point where investors and institutions start to scrutinize balance sheets, revenue growth, profitability, execution, and overall business quality. MDA is best-in-class, and I believe it has far more growth potential than the market has been giving it credit for. We could start to see a significant shift in how the company is viewed.

This pullback from the all-time high of $67 was needed anyway. The stock had been running very hot, and some cooling off was healthy. In my view, this is a strong support area where the stock can consolidate before making its next move higher.

Importantly, roughly $10 billion of MDA's opportunity pipeline consists of programs where the company has already been down-selected or is pursuing follow-on opportunities. That suggests contract news could arrive sooner rather than later. A major contract announcement could result in a significant move higher, along with further analyst target increases and valuation re-ratings.

At the end of the day, I keep asking myself: where else would I rather put my capital? This company has all the ingredients to be a long-term compounder and a consistent winner.

https://x.com/JaguarAnalytics/status/2059092901817209229?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Volume is insane on the US side.. we have a lot of room to catch up to US peers and I believe the reason we pulled back from pre market highs in the morning was because MDA was doing a Jefferies summit conference right at market open, investors must of wanted to wait to see what was said before continuing the push higher. I think we continue to move up higher till end of day.

In a couple of weeks, SpaceX will begin its IPO roadshow, and I believe it could provide another major boost to the entire space sector. The roadshow will likely bring massive investor attention to the long-term growth potential of the space economy, including satellite infrastructure, defense, communications, AI connectivity, and next-generation space technologies.

As one of the more established and credible infrastructure players in the sector, MDA Space could benefit significantly from that increased attention. Unlike many speculative space companies, MDA already has real revenue, major government and commercial contracts, a multi-billion-dollar backlog, strong execution history, and exposure to huge long-term opportunities like Telesat Lightspeed, Globalstar, defense programs, robotics, and satellite systems.

I think the SpaceX IPO process could help re-rate how investors view the entire sector and highlight just how valuable proven space infrastructure companies like MDA may become over the next decade.

While many space stocks are red today, MDA Space is making new highs. With the release of SpaceX’s financials, MDA is looking more and more like a solid dominant player in the sector. I think we are going to see continuous rotation from the more speculative stocks into MDA

Their pipeline potential looks incredibly lucrative too: Telesat, Globalstar, the Shield program, many government contracts, and lots of other new business ventures. Their TAM is massive, and they look like one of the most credible companies to actually execute and make things work.

The NYSE listing and all the new institutional ownership are very telling. I think we could make big moves here, and much faster than most anticipate.