I don’t understand how Half-Life 3 hasn’t been or won’t be released, from a financial standpoint
All of the mystique and mysticism around it, the hype surrounding it, the far-reaching jokes and memes about it (that are well into other communities, not just early PC Valve gamers)? Since everyone is aware of the jokes around its non-existence, if it were released there would no doubt be a huge audience that’d be receptive to looking into it.
More importantly, there could become a huge natural campaign about how well it lived up to the hype. For example, Slay the Spire 2 recently had a huge conversation around how great it was, particularly as a sequel. A lot of people who never played the original Slay the Spire, or never took interest in its eventual sequel, wanted to take part in the “moment” of the new release, particularly in it being an unexpectedly great sequel. Critics and fans (except steam reviewers) ubiquitously rated it highly, and the original Slay the Spire is almost uniquely well loved in the Roguelike genre.
The foremost prestige Slay the Spire has in its genre reminds me of the unique reach of Half Life 3 jokes; but the real comparison remains to be GTA VI. “We got X before GTA 6” jokes are everywhere, and if Rockstar never released it, that would be an even bigger joke. Well, I feel the same way about Half-Life 3 never being released: it’s just a colossal missed opportunity financially. So, I refuse to believe it isn’t coming at some point, because money talks. Valve is not publicly traded but obviously that doesn’t mean they aren’t going to follow the money… re: cs2/csgo cases
TL;DR:
All the time, people bandwagon the hype around a band releasing their sophomore or otherwise long awaited album that totally bangs/fucks. Since the whole internet has heard the joke about HL3 not having a release, when it comes out and is a genuinely good installment?-
The whole internet will already have a basis for understanding that it is long-awaited, and how much it means for it to then be a good game, which is a special marketing position for Valve.
One final comparison: how much interest could George R R Martin drum up by actually releasing The Winds of Winter, and it being great after all?