u/Most_Refuse_571

Not advice.

Everyone's debating whether HOVR gets certified and reaches market. That's missing a simpler question.

The half-scale X5 already flew. The transition worked. So the real question is: what's the probability the full-scale X7 does the same thing?

If you think that number is greater than 12%, the stock is mathematically underpriced right now — even before thinking about certification, commercialization, or revenue. Just the flight test.

Here's why. Strip the cash ($57M USD) and the market assigns about $60M to the whole program. A successful full-scale flight test, even if the company then completely fails to reach market, would almost certainly attract an acquisition. Airbus, Bell, Leonardo, Boeing — any of them would pay for a proven, patent-protected VTOL design plus flight data rather than spend 5+ years developing it themselves. Conservative floor on that acquisition: $500M market cap, or about $6/share — 4.5x today.

The break-even probability for that outcome to justify buying at $1.65 is 12%.

If you watched the X5 fly and think there's better than a 1-in-8 chance the full-scale version does the same thing, the rest of the thesis: certification, commercialization, standalone upside, is just extra.

What's everyone's actual probability estimate on Q1 2027?