https://feeds.issuerdirect.com/news-release.html?newsid=5735819824113733&symbol=HOVR

Hello everyone,

It’s Freddy. First post, excited to see what the future has in store for us… I see MODs are on top of things here so click on link to register for the upcoming red chip interview which will be virtual on May 27th 4:15pm

Sweet DreamZz

Source: www.sidoti.com/events/

Presentation to be done by: Brian Merker, CFO, Horizon Aircraft

Wed, May 20 at 1:00-1:30 PM in Track 2

Company Description

Horizon Aircraft (NASDAQ:HOVR) is an advanced aerospace company that is developing one of the world's first hybrid-electric VTOL (Vertical Take-Off and Landing) aircraft designed to fly most of its mission in traditional wing-borne flight, offering industry-leading speed, range, and operational utility. Horizon Aircraft's unique designs put the mission first and prioritize safety and performance. Upon successful completion of testing and certification of its full-scale aircraft, Horizon Aircraft intends to scale unit production to meet expected demand from regional aircraft operators, emergency service providers, and military customers.

Reasons to Meet

Differentiated hybrid-electric VTOL — not battery-bound. ~3–5x the range and ~2x the speed of all-electric competitors, with no charging infrastructure required.

Targets regional missions all-electrics structurally can't serve, at turboprop-competitive economics. Dual-use optionality.

The hybrid powertrain and range envelope are directly relevant to contested logistics, ISR, and MEDEVAC — opening a defense/government revenue path alongside the commercial AAM market.

Near-term catalyst at a microcap entry. 50%-scale prototype successfully flown; full-scale aircraft in build with ground/flight testing approaching. Disciplined balance sheet, active shelf, and non-dilutive funding pipeline — rare combination of imminent milestone and capital discipline in the AAM peer set.

Company Website

https://www.horizonaircraft.com/

As the title mentions, I am wondering what are your guys thoughts on the stock price if there are no working prototype by EOY as planned? I recently found this stock and seem pretty convinced of its future. I bought 950 shares yesterday at 2.30 average, but do you guys think the stock will tank hard if there is no prototype? In that case, I assume most of you guys will still hold for the future?

Is the strongest argument simply that HOVR uses a hybrid system instead of a fully battery-powered model, or is there more to it?

Also, HOVR seems to have some obvious advantages like:

potentially lower battery stress/degradation

better emergency/range flexibility

less dependence on charging infrastructure

VTOL + efficient winged flight combination

Curious what people with more engineering knowledge think.

Current live streamed video discussion regarding Canadian Infrastructure and Timeline alignments.

Price targets: my two scenarios (obviously bull)

Scenario A: Realistic 2026 bull case (full-scale built, flight testing imminent, de-risking)

This is what could actually happen by EOY 2026. Comparable companies that hit equivalent milestones (full-scale flying prototype, partnerships locked in, no cert yet) trade in the $500M–$1.5B range (Vertical Aerospace at the low end, Eve mid-range).

• Bull target: $1B market cap → with ~50M shares post-dilution → $18–$22/share
• Conservative bull: $500M market cap → $9–$11/share (matches analyst PTs)
• That's a 4–8x from $2.40

Scenario B: My dream scenario (FAA cert + full X7 by EOY 2026 — aggressive)

If this somehow happened, HOVR would re-rate against the JOBY/ACHR cohort. But even here, HOVR would trade at a significant discount because:

• Smaller team (~30 employees vs. JOBY's 2,000+)
• No vertically integrated TaaS model
• No major OEM partner like Toyota/Stellantis
• No commercial pre-orders close to ACHR's or EVTL's pre-order book

Realistic discount to JOBY's ~$10B: 15–25% → $1.5B–$2.5B market cap

• Post-cert dilution likely (~55–65M shares) → $25–$45/share
• That's a 10–18x from current

Why the hybrid + capability advantage matters (but is partially already priced)

The hybrid architecture is genuinely differentiated:

• 500 mi range vs. ~100–150 mi for pure-electric eVTOLs (JOBY ~150 mi, ACHR ~100 mi). This is the single biggest functional advantage.
• 250 mph cruise which is competitive with JOBY/ACHR
• Fan-in-wing design flies as conventional aircraft 98% of mission → certifies under existing Part 23 framework rather than the new Powered Lift category Joby/Archer had to pioneer. This is a certification tailwind, not just a performance one.
• Mission flexibility: medevac, cargo, defense, fire-fighting... it is not dependent on urban vertiport buildout, which is the biggest soft spot in the JOBY/ACHR thesis
• 75% lower operating cost vs. helicopters addresses a real $20B+ helicopter replacement TAM

But... and this is my honest counterweight:

• Hybrid means hydrocarbon emissions, which is a marketing issue with ESG buyers
• "Better technology" hasn't translated to valuation in this sector. EVTL has a 1,500-aircraft pre-order book and trades at ~$280M–$1B. Pre-orders and partnerships move stocks here, not just specs.
• HOVR has one major LOI (JetSetGo, 100 aircraft) vs. ACHR/JOBY/EVTL with airline-level commitments
• 30 employees building a certified aircraft is a small team. Cert programs typically cost $1B+. HOVR has ~$34M. Massive dilution is essentially certain before cert is achieved.

My honest take on the numbers

Scenario	Timeline	Market cap	Share price (post-dilution)	Multiple
2026 milestone bull (realistic)	EOY 2026	$400–800M	$7–14	3–6x
Aggressive bull (your premise)	EOY 2026	$1.5–2.5B	$25–45	10–18x
JOBY-comparable (very long term, post-FAA)	2029–2030	$3–5B	$40–70	17–29x

The analyst PT of $11 and the high estimate of $18 from Yahoo align well with my "realistic 2026 bull" range. Anything above $20 requires either FAA cert (won't happen by EOY 2026) or a strategic acquisition premium (possible... small cap, valuable IP, would be a tuck-in for Boeing/Lockheed/Embraer).

Biggest risk to all of this: dilution. HOVR just raised $20M in May 2026 at $2.06. To fund through cert they need probably $300M+ more. At current prices that's ~150M new shares and this more than triples the share count. Bull cases need to bake this in. What do you all think about this part? I don't think institutional interest is ever a bad thing but I am not a fan of BR and the team standing on "non-dilutive" measures for cap raises.

My two cents. HOVR to the moon. This and APLD have been one of my biggest conviction plays since I have started trading. I believe this company is doing mostly everything right. With continued guidance and strategic partnerships, it is very realistic we see 10s by EOY.

Reposting: Saw this posted on Matan's discord. His acoustic thesis is the genuinely novel, meaning I haven't seen this articulated elsewhere on HOVR. Small ducted fans run at high RPM, so the noise is high-frequency. High-frequency sound attenuates fast in air and doesn't diffract around obstacles. Helicopter rotors are large/slow, so low-frequency, which travels far and penetrates buildings. He estimates HOVR will run 10–20 dB quieter than rotorcraft, and notes the high-freq profile is materially better for any military/concealment application because the sound won't carry. This goes nicely with the Canadian defence procurement angle for stealthy insertions / extractions.

This also matches what HOVR team has been saying that it is quieter than a helicopter. Also the fans are ducted / the rear prop blocked. Even the MT prop seems to be optimized for sound level.

One more detail he is excited about is that instead of conventional visible fan blades from below the duct, there's a honeycomb/folded structure under the fan that does three things it concentrates downward thrust (hovr has this patented), acts as thrust-vector control by tilting the louvers (so attitude/translation control during hover without complex mechanical linkages), and serves as a muffler that cancels lateral acoustic energy.

Here's an image of the flowguide patent (thx Deathsmiles). If you look closely on the X5 videos you can see it in action actually.

https://preview.redd.it/jnkcy8myum1h1.png?width=1121&format=png&auto=webp&s=d061c6b5d2f87a1b61eb5a50e2fb6c959d44a9ba

Anyway if you were wondering the Chinese guy's trading plan is "next double, sell down to recover principal, let the rest run as venture money." Here's his video (it's in Chinese though) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRJtkxt-ugY